On Prediction for Correlated Domains in Longitudinal Surveys

In the survey sampling estimation or prediction of both population’s and subopulation’s (domain’s) characteristics is one of the key issues. In the case of the estimation or prediction of domain’s characteristics one of the problems is looking for additional sources of information that can be used to increase the accuracy of estimators or predictors. One of these sources may be spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Due to the mean squared error (MSE) estimation, the standard assumption is that random variables are independent for population elements from different domains. If the assumption is taken into account, spatial correlation may be assumed only inside domains. In the paper, we assume some special case of the linear mixed model with two random components that obey assumptions of the first-order spatial autoregressive model SAR(1) (but inside groups of domains instead of domains) and first-order temporal autoregressive model AR(1). Based on the model, the empirical best linear unbiased predictor will be proposed together with an estimator of its MSE taking the spatial correlation between domains into account.     

On the Prediction of the Subpopulation Total Based on Spatially Correlated Longitudinal Data

In a special case of the general linear mixed model, one random component obeys a spatial autoregressive process and another a temporal autoregressive process. The population and any affiliations to subpopulations may change in time. The empirical best linear unbiased predictor is derived and may be used even if the sample size in the subpopulation is null in the period of interest. The mean squared error and its estimator are expressed. The accuracy of the predictor and the bias of the mean squared error estimator are addressed through simulations.     

Evaluation of an STD-Prevention Program for Swedish University Students

Abstract

The authors evaluated a sexually transmitted disease (STD)-prevention program that combined a mass media campaign with peer education. The program was designed to increase Swedish university students' knowledge about STDs. improve attitudes toward condom use, and tell students where to get an STD checkup. Preintervention and postintervention postal questionnaires were used with an intervention group and two types of control groups. Responses ranged from 32% to 67% for the randomly selected students and from 93% to 99% for classroom and clinic participants. The intervention was noticed by a majority of the students (85–98%) and discussed by 43% to 57%; more women than men observed and discussed the campaign. Knowledge about STDs. where to turn for STD checkups, and the intention of having an STD checkup increased. Attitudes toward condom use were equally positive before and after the intervention. Although it was successful in attracting attention and leading to discussions of STD prevention, the campaign did not encourage students to have an STD checkup.     

Children in Need in the South of Italy: Features and Distortions in the Deinstitutionalisation of Care

Despite the shift in emphasis from institutional to foster family care, in the south of Italy children in need are mainly looked after by residential services. These are required to provide family‐style care and to place children on a short‐term basis. Using data from research on a 100% sample of day units, residential services and children in care in the Calabria region, this article investigates the functioning of the system of care for vulnerable children at the sub‐national level, describes looked‐after children’s characteristics and life conditions and questions the extent to which a real deinstitutionalisation process has occurred in this area. Finally, some deinstitutionalisation recommendations are given.     

Assessing the Structural Robustness of Self-Rated Satisfaction With Life: A SEM Analysis

Structural invariance of self-rated satisfaction with life data was assessed using four data sets collected in earlier studies by using the Satisfaction With Life Scale. Three measurement models were compared to account for structural variability of the data. Strict structural invariance was rejected. Departure from the one-factor model was only found in data gathered using the items in successive order. When the items were scattered among other items, only quantitative variability was found. The findings did not support the view of a generalized one-factor model but suggested measurement artifacts. Qualitative structural variability impacted the scale reliability estimates. Although experimental replication of an ordering effect is warranted, this study suggests that scattering the items can be recommended in order to optimize the structural validity of this concept.     

Incidental Findings: A Common Law Approach

Federal regulations governing human subjects research do not address key questions raised by incidental neuroimaging findings, including the scope of a researcher's disclosure with respect to the possibility of incidental findings and the question whether a researcher has an affirmative legal cuty to seek, detect, and report incidental findings. The scope of researcher duties may, however, be mapped with reference to common law doctrine, including fiduciary, tort, contract, and bailment theories of liability.     

Who should plan technological innovation?

Over the last 10 years there has been a growing need to improve integration between business planning and R & D activities. One reason for this has been a decrease in the returns on R & D investments. An understanding of the relationship between demand and technological innovation is needed to achieve this integration. The planning approach will be very different depending on whether the company's business is based on ‘technology-push’ or ‘demand-pull’, and whether planning is controlled by the R & D or the marketing function.     

Force steadiness in the lower extremities as an independent predictor of functional performance in older women

The relationship between isometric force control and functional performance is unknown. Submaximal steadiness and accuracy were measured during a constant force-matching task at 50% of maximal isometric voluntary contraction (MVC) of the knee extensors in 19 older women (70-89 years). Other variables included MVC, rate of torque development, and EMG activity. Functional performance was assessed during maximal performance of walking endurance, chair rising, and stair climbing. Isometric steadiness (but not accuracy) was found to independently predict chair-rise time and stair-climbing power and explained more variance in these tasks than any other variable. Walking endurance was related to muscle strength but not steadiness. These results suggest that steadiness is an independent predictor of brief, stressful functional-performance tasks in older women with mild functional impairment. Thus, improving steadiness might help reduce functional limitations or disability in older adults.     

Europe and Security in the Caucasus

The Caucasus has become, as a long-lasting seismic wave, a framework of enormous and underestimated relevance and uncertainty. But even so, we have not to become prisoner of a short-term “cage”. There is neither strategy nor policy, diplomacy, or war that can exist without four fundamental intellectual preconditions: historical knowledge, security knowledge, ethnic-cultural-religious knowledge, and knowledge of the geopolitical, economic, and international order. These have been recalled by some crucial comments taken from a revisited version of Homer’s Iliad, recently published by the Italian writer Alessandro Baricco, to better focus the concepts. “Men have always flung themselves headlong into battle, like moths attracted towards a fatal flame. There is no fear or self-disgust which has managed to keep them away from that flame” – he wrote – “because it is within that flame that they have always found the only way of emerging from the shadows of life. For this reason, I believe that no one will stop searching for an alternative beauty to that represented by the war path or stop looking for a reason to about face. Sooner or later we will succeed in calling Achilles away from this fateful war. Neither fear nor horror will bring him home. It will be some other completely different beauty, more dazzling than his own and infinitely more humble”. We are, in fact, aware of examples of very poor governance skills at a global level as regards the management of medium-and long-term international order options. And the Caucasus is really a case study. For these many reasons Europe cannot avoid an effective “neighbourhood policy” with the Caucasian countries. In 2003, the European Union appointed a Special Representative for the region. Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia all have Partnership and Cooperation Agreements in force with the EU. Actions plans will be soon implemented and Europe represents by and large the preferred and more reliable interlocutor for the Caucasian region.     

Impulsiveness,Locus of Control,Motivation and Problem Gambling

A questionnaire consisting of demographic items, questions about gambling behavior, the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS), a depression inventory, the Eysenck Impulsiveness Questionnaire, Levensons Internality, Powerful Others and Chance Scales of locus of control and the Gambling Motivation Scale, was completed by a non-random sample of 147 New Zealand university students who gambled for money, median age 24 years. Approximately 17 of the sample was classified as problem gamblers, the rest as non-problem gamblers. Multivariate analysis of variance showed that there were significant differences between problem and non-problem gamblers on gambling frequency, number of activities, parents gambling, depression, impulsiveness and motivation, but not on locus of control. Amotivation (apathy) and motivation towards stimulation correlated with powerful others and chance locus of control, and motivation to impress others with powerful others locus of control. Hierarchical regression analysis showed that: (1) beyond gambling frequency, number of activities and parents gambling, motivation explained a substantial proportion of variance in SOGS scores, with impulsiveness accounting for a lesser amount, and (2) predictors of problem gambling included impulsiveness, amotivation and the motivations for accomplishment and tension release. It was concluded that gambling motivation is a more useful construct than locus of control in explaining problem gambling. Suggestions were made for future research, and aspects of gambling motivation were discussed in terms of a treatment program with groups of problem gamblers.