On MSE of EBLUP

We consider Best Linear Unbiased Predictors (BLUPs) and Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictors (EBLUPs) under the general mixed linear model. The BLUP was proposed by Henderson (Ann Math Stat 21:309–310, 1950). The formula of this BLUP includes unknown elements of the variance-covariance matrix of random variables. If the elements in the formula of the BLUP proposed by Henderson (Ann Math Stat 21:309–310, 1950) are replaced by some type of estimators, we obtain the two-stage predictor called the EBLUP which is model-unbiased (Kackar and Harville in Commun Stat A 10:1249–1261, 1981). Kackar and Harville (J Am Stat Assoc 79:853–862, 1984) show an approximation of the mean square error (the MSE) of the predictor and propose an estimator of the MSE. The MSE and estimators of the MSE are also studied by Prasad and Rao (J Am Stat Assoc 85:163–171, 1990), Datta and Lahiri (Stat Sin 10:613–627, 2000) and Das et al. (Ann Stat 32(2):818–840, 2004). In the paper we consider the BLUP proposed by Royall (J Am Stat Assoc 71:657–473, 1976. Ża̧dło (On unbiasedness of some EBLU predictor. Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg, pp 2019–2026, 2004) shows that the BLUP proposed by Royall (J Am Stat Assoc 71:657–473, 1976) may be treated as a generalisation of the BLUP proposed by Henderson (Ann Math Stat 21:309–310, 1950) and proves model unbiasedness of the EBLUP based on the formula of the BLUP proposed by Royall (J Am Stat Assoc 71:657–473, 1976) under some assumptions. In this paper we derive the formula of the approximate MSE of the EBLUP and its estimators. We prove that the approximation of the MSE is accurate to terms o(D ⁻¹) and that the estimator of the MSE is approximately unbiased in the sense that its bias is o(D ⁻¹) under some assumptions, where D is the number of domains. The proof is based on the results obtained by Datta and Lahiri (Stat Sin 10:613–627, 2000). Using our results we show some EBLUP based on the special case of the general linear model. We also present the formula of its MSE and estimators of its MSE and their performance in Monte Carlo simulation study.      

Fathers' employment in a father-friendly welfare state: does fatherhood affect men's working hours?

An important aim of Norwegian work–family policies is to enhance the family role of fathers. Time-use surveys show a slight increase in fathers’ family work, but we still know little about the relationship between men's family circumstances and working hours. On the one hand, policy measures encourage the greater involvement of fathers in family life. On the other hand, men are the main providers in most couples and employment and breadwinning are still important components of men's fathering identity. In this paper, we examine the relationship between fatherhood and working time, with a particular focus on the possible effects of the number and ages of children. Utilizing the Norwegian Labour Force Survey 2005, we find that men's contractual working hours are not significantly affected by their parental status, but men do curtail their actual working hours when they have young children, and particularly if there is only one child in the household. However, men with school-aged children actually work longer hours than non-fathers and men with young children.     

Estimating multiple-membership logit models with mixed effects: indirect inference versus data cloning

Multiple-membership logit models with random effects are models for clustered binary data, where each statistical unit can belong to more than one group. The likelihood function of these models is analytically intractable. We propose two different approaches for parameter estimation: indirect inference and data cloning (DC). The former is a non-likelihood-based method which uses an auxiliary model to select reasonable estimates. We propose an auxiliary model with the same dimension of parameter space as the target model, which is particularly convenient to reach good estimates very fast. The latter method computes maximum likelihood estimates through the posterior distribution of an adequate Bayesian model, fitted to cloned data. We implement a DC algorithm specifically for multiple-membership models. A Monte Carlo experiment compares the two methods on simulated data. For further comparison, we also report Bayesian posterior mean and Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation hybrid DC estimates. Simulations show a negligible loss of efficiency for the indirect inference estimator, compensated by a relevant computational gain. The approaches are then illustrated with two real examples on matched paired data.     

Beratung im Kontext des Neuen Steuerungsmodells in der Kinder- und Jugendhilfe

The main elements of the ongoing reform of youth welfare in Germany “Neue Steuerung” (“New Regulation”) are the reconstruction of its administration, local networking and the transfer of economical criterions to the context of social work. Advisors and coaches, working in this field, are confronted with a problem, which is highly characterized by institutional dynamics of changes, and especially with the question of efficiency of social measures. We think, it is important that advisers, coaches an supervisors, who work in this field of “New Regulation”, are informed profoundly of the current state of the reform of the administration in their region, that they find their own point-of-view to the theme of pressure in financing social measures and social providing, and that they create a flexible supply of consultation, which is comprehensive in methods and that they cooperate with their clients` institutions.     

The juvenile sexual offender: Challenges to assessment for outpatient intervention

Assessment is the key in the outpatient treatment of the juvenile sexual offender, helping to distinguish cause and determine appropriate interventions. The structured assessment identifies issues regarding sexuality, power, control and the impact of sexual abuse upon the child victim and the juvenile offender. Providing a comprehensive view of the offender's past and present, it helps in the utilization of treatment techniques.     

Making visits better: the perspectives of parents,foster parents,and child welfare workers

Mothers of children recently placed in foster care, foster mothers, and child welfare workers participated in semistructured, clinical interviews focusing on the challenges of parent visitation with young children. Mothers described their feelings of grief, trauma, and rage about the forced separation from their children and stressed the importance of emotional expression and communication during visits. Child welfare workers described the complexities of supporting emotionally close parent-child interactions while monitoring and assessing parental behavior during visits. Foster mothers described the importance of preparing children for visits and the difficulties of supporting the children afterward. Implications of understanding mothers', foster mothers', and child welfare workers' perspectives on enhancing the quality of visits with young children are discussed.     

Social capital in the field of power: the case of Norway

This paper analyses social capital structures in the field of power, based on data from the Norwegian Power and Democracy Survey on elites. Separating between objectified, institutionalised, embodied, and inherited social capital, and inspired by Bourdieu's approach, we analyse the relations between social capital and the other forms of capital by way of specific multiple correspondence analysis and ascending hierarchical cluster analysis. First, we find that the level of institutionalised social capital varies from one fraction of the Norwegian elite to another. Secondly, the range of networks established through previous work experiences is related to field seniority. Thirdly, the positions of highest endogamy are situated in the religious field, and to a lesser extent, in the scientific field, and in the juridical field. Finally, the ‘core of the core’ is defined by actors who are strongly interconnected inside what is called ‘the tripartite system’, with a high level of multipositionality and intersectorial connections.