Earthquakes occurrences estimation through a parametric semi-Markov approach

The estimation of earthquakes’ occurrences prediction in seismic areas is a challenging problem in seismology and earthquake engineering. Indeed, the prevention and the quantification of possible damage provoked by destructive earthquakes are directly linked to this kind of prevision. In our paper, we adopt a parametric semi-Markov approach. This model assumes that a sequence of earthquakes is seen as a Markov process and besides it permits to take into consideration the more realistic assumption of events’ dependence in space and time. The elapsed time between two consecutive events is modeled as a general Weibull distribution. We determine then the transition probabilities and the so-called crossing states probabilities. We conclude then with a Monte Carlo simulation and the model is validated through a large database containing real data.     

2MTO,a new mapping tool to achieve lean benefits in high-variety low-volume job shops

This paper proposes the ‘Mapping Tool for Make-To-Order companies’ (2MTO), a new approach to map, analyse and achieve lean benefits in high-variety-low-volume job shops. The focus is, mainly, on the transitional phase from push to pull, when there is a compelling need to acquire a deep understanding of the current state of the system under analysis. Sometimes, in this initial phase, a pure pull approach cannot be developed and a job shop configuration must be maintained. If so, 2MTO allows selecting a suitable hybrid Production Planning and Control system to control Work-In-Process and to limit lead times, so as to quickly achieve lean benefits, without significantly altering the original layout. 2MTO is fully explained making reference to an Italian precision mechanic company, where the application of the method led to a successful implementation of a Workload Control system.     

Expectations of Career Counseling and Their Effect on Client Satisfaction

Although there has been growing attention to clients' expectations of career counseling, more research is necessary to clarify the role of these expectations in shaping client satisfaction at the end of the intervention. On the basis of expectation confirmation theory, this study examined the indirect effect of clients' initial expectations on overall satisfaction through the perceived performance and final confirmation of expectations. We also explored whether this indirect effect is dependent on counselors' initial expectations. Longitudinal data were collected on 83 counselor-client dyads involved in a career counseling intervention in northeast Italy. Results confirmed that clients' initial expectations predicted overall satisfaction with the intervention through the subsequent mediation of perceived performance and confirmation of clients' expectations. The moderating role of the counselors' initial expectations was not confirmed. These findings imply that career counselors should invest their efforts in managing clients' expectations.     

RATIONAL HEURISTICS? EXPECTATIONS AND BEHAVIORS IN EVOLVING ECONOMIES WITH HETEROGENEOUS INTERACTING AGENTS

We analyze the individual and macroeconomic impacts of heterogeneous expectations and action rules within an agent-based model populated by heterogeneous, interacting firms. Agents have to cope with a complex evolving economy characterized by deep uncertainty resulting from technical change, imperfect information, coordination hurdles, and structural breaks. In these circumstances, we find that neither individual nor macroeconomic dynamics improve when agents replace myopic expectations with less naïve learning rules. Our results suggest that fast and frugal robust heuristics may not be a second-best option but rather “rational” responses in complex and changing macroeconomic environments. (JEL C63, D8, E32, E6, O4)     

Factors Constraining Building Effective and Fair Geographical Indications for Coffee: Insights from a Dominican Case Study

The commodity nature of green coffee is the main cause of the ‘coffee paradox’ (falling producer prices and rising consumer prices). Geographical Indications (GIs) may be an effective ‘decommodifier’ of the coffee market, but many constraints have to be overcome. Based on an analysis of how the characteristics of the coffee production system shape the positions of local stakeholders and, thus, the GI building process, this article identifies some constraining factors that can seriously undermine the capacity the GI has to decommodify the market and attain a fairer distribution of the benefits for local producers.     

A fuzzy logic approach to poverty analysis based on the Gini and Bonferroni inequality indices

In the poverty analysis framework, a great deal of attention has been paid to the poverty measurement in terms of monetary variables, such as income or consumption. In this context, a relevant open problem is connected with the distinction between poor and non-poor. In fact, the concept of poverty is rather vague and cannot be defined in a clear way. In this respect, following a fuzzy logic approach, some new poverty measures are proposed. In particular, the fuzzy extension of two existing poverty measures based on the Gini and Bonferroni inequality indices is provided. Some synthetic and real applications are given in order to show how the proposed poverty measures work.     

“The adoption and implementation of performance measurement process in Italian public organisations: the influence of political,cultural and rational factors”

One of the main challenges in the field of performance measurement and management in public organisations is about how to use and manage performance measures effectively. This study aims to examine the stages involved in the process of utilisation of performance measures, i.e. adoption and implementation, and to investigate the political, cultural and rational factors that affect this process. For this purpose, a theoretical model from the literature has been extended and tested by using the data gathered through a survey involving the managers of several departments of Italian regions and municipal districts. The final sample has included 201 usable observations. The data analysis has been conducted using structural equation modelling. A significant cause-and-effect relationship was found between the stages of adoption and implementation. Moreover, it was found that adoption is driven significantly by rational factors. Otherwise actual implementation is influenced by factors addressed both by political considerations, such as external interest groups and by rational evaluations such as resources. The effects of other rational and cultural factors on implementation stage are mediated by adoption.     

Bringing Cognition Back In and Moving Forward

Journal of Management and Governance -     

Perceived Corruption and Individuals’ Life Satisfaction: The Mediating Role of Institutional Trust

Social Indicators Research - Corruption degrades the quality of institutions, increases economic inequality and limits growth. Recent studies indicate that corruption is also associated with lower...     

Whither the evolution of the contemporary social fabric? New technologies and old socio‐economic trends

This article considers whether societies are witnessing another industrial revolution in the light of an assessment of the impact of technological change on today's socio‐economic fabric, especially with respect to employment, income distribution, working conditions and labour relations. The authors argue that the processes of innovation and the spread of what they term “intelligent automation” are likely to exacerbate incumbent patterns of uneven income distribution and power, some of which existed well before the arrival of the technologies concerned, while others have emerged over the past 30 to 40 years. They venture to consider policy implications on the basis of such developments.