Exact uniformly most powerful postselection confidence distributions

A conditioning on the event of having selected one model from a set of possibly misspecified normal linear regression models leads to the construction of uniformly optimal conditional confidence distributions. They can be used for valid postselection inference. The constructed conditional confidence distributions are finite sample exact and encompass all information regarding the focus parameter in the selected model. This includes the construction of optimal postselection confidence intervals at all significance levels and uniformly most powerful hypothesis tests.     

Employers' Recruitment Behaviour: An Empirical Analysis of the Role of Personnel Management Attitudes

The practical importance of recruitment is witnessed by the existence of specific personnel management functions within firms. The aim of the paper is to investigate the importance of firms' personnel management attitudes for recruitment procedures. We focus on the choice of the first search channel and on the subsequent search spell. The model is empirically estimated by using a data set on recruitment behaviour of Dutch firms. The results show that personnel management considerations are important for the choice of the recruitment channel. It appears that advertisement is preferred to the informal channel in that employers believe it is faster and generates applicants who better comply with the hiring standards. Furthermore, employers turn out to prefer mainly the informal channel when recruitment costs are considered important.     

Vaccine clinical trials with dynamic borrowing of historical controls: Two retrospective studies

Traditional vaccine efficacy trials usually use fixed designs with fairly large sample sizes. Recruiting a large number of subjects requires longer time and higher costs. Furthermore, vaccine developers are more than ever facing the need to accelerate vaccine development to fulfill the public's medical needs. A possible approach to accelerate development is to use the method of dynamic borrowing of historical controls in clinical trials. In this paper, we evaluate the feasibility and the performance of this approach in vaccine development by retrospectively analyzing two real vaccine studies: a relatively small immunological trial (typical early phase study) and a large vaccine efficacy trial (typical Phase 3 study) assessing prophylactic human papillomavirus vaccine. Results are promising, particularly for early development immunological studies, where the adaptive design is feasible, and control of type I error is less relevant.     

From local champions to global players: A long-term perspective on Swiss companies’ connections across territorial scales

Corporate interlocking at the national and transnational scale has received substantive scholarly attention. Less is known about companies’ ties to the cities and regions in which they have their seats. In this paper, we conduct a long-term analysis of the multilevel ties that companies maintain with the local and the national context they are embedded in. To do so, we adopt a positional approach and identify the directors of the major companies in the three largest Swiss cities (Basel, Geneva, and Zurich) and study company directors’ ties to local and national organizations in seven benchmark years between 1890 and 2020. Our analysis documents the rise and fall of company directors’ ties to national organizations over the course of the 20th century, and it highlights the continued persistence of companies’ ties to the local level and their region until the new millennium, when companies’ ties with national and local organizations vanish, coinciding with the transnationalization of company boards.     

A GLOBAL VIEW OF CROSS‐BORDER MIGRATION

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of observed levels of migration using a quantitative multi‐sector model of the world economy calibrated to aggregate and firm‐level data. Our framework features cross‐country labor productivity differences, international trade, remittances, and a heterogeneous workforce. We compare welfare under the observed levels of migration to a no‐migration counterfactual. In the long run, natives in countries that received a lot of migration—such as Canada or Australia—are better off due to greater product variety available in consumption and as intermediate inputs. In the short run, the impact of migration on average welfare in these countries is close to zero, while the skilled and unskilled natives tend to experience welfare changes of opposite signs. The remaining natives in countries with large emigration flows—such as Jamaica or El Salvador—are also better off due to migration, but for a different reason: remittances. The welfare impact of observed levels of migration is substantial, at about 5% to 10% for the main receiving countries and about 10% in countries with large incoming remittances.