Statistical approaches for the reliability of structural designs

The Construction Industry Research and Information Association (CIRIA) has produced some guidelines for the assessment of the reliability of components and/or structures. The methods of analysis suggested by these guidelines are far from adequate and, in certain cases, contain some imperfections. In this paper, some of the weaknesses of the guidelines are identified. The shortcomings are mainly in the ease of calculations and the feasibility of the assumptions which are imposed. Three alternative methods aimed at tackling some of the weaknesses are introduced. A simulation study is used to compare these methods.     

Modelling age variation in survival and reporting rates for recovery models

In this paper, we focus on models for recovery data from birds ringed as young. In some cases, it is important to be able to include in these models a degree of age variation in the reporting probability. For certain models this has been found, empirically, to result in completely flat likelihood surfaces, due to parameter redundancy. These models cannot then be fitted to the data, to produce unique parameter estimates. However, empirical evidence also exists that other models with such age variation can be fitted to data by maximum likelihood. Using the approach of Catchpole and Morgan (1996b), we can now identify which models in this area are parameter-redundant, and which are not. Models which are not parameter-redundant may still perform poorly in practice, and this is investigated through examples, involving both real and simulated data. The Akaike Information Criterion is found to select inappropriate models in a number of instances. The paper ends with guidelines for fitting models to data from birds ringed as young, when age dependence is expected in the reporting probability.     

BALANCED DESIGNS FOR ROW-AND-COLUMN EXPERIMENTS WITH TWO NON-INTERACTING SETS OF TREATMENTS, ONE SET NOT BEING APPLIED TO ALL THE ROWS1

This note gives and discusses balanced row-and-column designs for experiments with two non-interacting sets of treatments, one set not being applied to all the rows. These designs are potentially useful for occasions when trees that have tested one set of experimental treatments are needed for testing a second set before the residual effects of the first have become negligible, but when the experimenter wishes to apply the second set to only some of the rows. The designs are appropriate if the residual and new effects do not interact.     

EVIDENCE ON ELECTORAL ACCOUNTABILITY IN THE U.S. SENATE: ARE UNFAITHFUL AGENTS REALLY PUNISHED?

Many have questioned whether voters are able to hold incumbent officials electorally accountable through a retrospective voting strategy. We examine U.S. Senate elections from 1962 to 1990 in forty-one states, explaining which incumbents ran for reelection and their success in seeking reelection. We find that an incumbent's deviation from her state party platform decreases the probability that she will run for reelection and win if she runs. Furthermore, the electoral mechanism is found to be more efficient when voters are better informed. Finally, we find that our divergent party platform model provides a better fit than the median voter model.     

Rural Community Satisfaction and Attachment in Mass Consumer Society1

Abstract Previous models of community satisfaction and attachment have not included personal economic attitudes and behaviors as independent variables. Their inclusion is theoretically justified when residents of communities are viewed as consumers in a larger social/economic context first and residents of a particular community second. As locally-oriented economic processes—once part of the community experience—were removed to nonlocal markets, local economic and demographic attributes became less important to rural residents' experience of community. In two rural communities with extreme scores on a service center viability index, satisfaction with employment and location of employment are important predictors.     

Nonverbal cues to deception among intimates,friends, and strangers

Buller and Burgoon (in press) propose that deceivers attempt to encode strategically nonverbal cues which indicate nonimmediacy and project a positive image. At the same time, deceivers leak arousal and negative affect via their nonverbal display. This experiment tested these predictions, while examining the influence of relational history on deception cues and the stability of deception cues within deceptive conversations. The nonverbal behavior of 130 strangers, friends, and intimates was measured. Results indicated that deceivers signalled nonimmediacy, arousal, and negative affect, but they did not appear to project a positive image. Deception cues were mediated by relational history and showed considerable temporal variation. Strangers leaked more arousal and negative affect than friends and intimates. Further, deceivers, particularly deceiving friends and intimates, seemed to monitor and control their nonverbal behavior during deception by suppressing arousal and negative affect cues and moderating nonimmediate behavior.