One-sided normal prediction intervals and sample sizes for a third-stage sample

One-sided two-stage prediction intervals for a normal population are extended to a third sampling stage. Procedures and tables are given for two situations. In the first situation, methods for obtaining such intervals are presented, and tables for calculating such prediction intervals are provided. In the second situation, a two-stage prediction interval has been applied, and a third stage is now required. Sample sizes are given for the third stage.     

On Rubbing Raw the Sores of Discontent: Competing Theories and Data on the Effects of Participation in a Black Protest Group

Abstract

Predictions concerning the effects of participation in protest activity stimulated by conflict and resentment are derived from two theories of attitude change, sociotherapy and dissonance reduction theory. These predictions are comparted with the measured attitudes of participants in protest activity in terms of two sets—those who are satisfied with the results and those who aren't. The findings sustain neither the sociotherapists nor their critics. Dissonance reduction theory gains some support in the finding that frustrated participants tend to view the protest group itself less favorably than they view the political system. Though not a direct test of attitude change, the study is a test of the predicted outcomes of conflict stimulation as a community organizing technique and suggests that attitudinal effects are neither cause for concern nor promising for reduction of disaffection in the ghetto.     

Doctoral Education in Social Work: The Decade Ahead

ABSTRACT

Scientific and professional developments in the coming decade will have profound implications for social work doctoral education and the research and academic careers doctoral students are preparing for. These developments include the knowledge explosion, corporatization of the university and related effects, and the emergence of the Grand Challenges for Social Work initiative delimiting key directions for social work research and practice. We consider potential effects of these developments on doctoral social work education and proffer curricular, pedagogic, and programmatic recommendations for improving doctoral education in the coming decade.     

Welfare programs and labor supply in developing countries: experimental evidence from Latin America

This study looks at the effect of welfare programs on work incentives and the adult labor supply in developing countries. The analysis builds on the experimental evaluations of three programs implemented in rural areas: Mexico’s Programa Nacional de Educación, Salud y Alimentación (PROGRESA), Nicaragua’s Red de Protección Social, and Honduras’ Programa de Asignación Familiar. Comparable results for the three countries indicate that the effects that the programs have had on the labor supply of participating adults have been mostly negative but are nonetheless small and not statistically significant. However, the evidence does point to the presence of other effects on labor markets. In the case of PROGRESA, there is a small positive effect on the number of hours worked by female beneficiaries and a sizeable increase in wages among male beneficiaries and a resulting increase in household labor income. Moreover, PROGRESA seems to have reduced female labor-force participation in ineligible households. These results imply that large-scale interventions may have broader equilibrium effects.     

On the Benefit of Inventory‐Based Dynamic Pricing Strategies

We study the optimal pricing and replenishment decisions in an inventory system with a price‐sensitive demand, focusing on the benefit of the inventory‐based dynamic pricing strategy. We find that demand variability impacts the benefit of dynamic pricing not only through the magnitude of the variability but also through its functional form (e.g., whether it is additive, multiplicative, or others). We provide an approach to quantify the profit improvement of dynamic pricing over static pricing without having to solve the dynamic pricing problem. We also demonstrate that dynamic pricing is most effective when it is jointly optimized with inventory replenishment decisions, and that its advantage can be mostly realized by using one or two price changes over a replenishment cycle.     

Variance of the number of false discoveries

Summary.  In high throughput genomic work, a very large number d of hypotheses are tested based on n ≪ d data samples. The large number of tests necessitates an adjustment for false discoveries in which a true null hypothesis was rejected. The expected number of false discoveries is easy to obtain. Dependences between the hypothesis tests greatly affect the variance of the number of false discoveries. Assuming that the tests are independent gives an inadequate variance formula. The paper presents a variance formula that takes account of the correlations between test statistics. That formula involves O ( d ²) correlations, and so a naïve implementation has cost O ( nd ²). A method based on sampling pairs of tests allows the variance to be approximated at a cost that is independent of d .     

Family planning in choiseul province,Solomon Islands

The results presented are from a rural prevalence survey on family planning in Choiseul Province, Solomon Islands. Married women aged 15–49 years with at least one living child and married men whose wife met the same criteria, provided data on knowledge, attitudes and practices of contraceptive use. Fifty one per cent of the female sample were using some form of contraception, 26 per cent reversible and 25 per cent non-reversible methods. Sixty-five per cent of men claimed that they or their spouse were using a method of family planning. Tubal ligation was the most common currently used method (25 per cent in the female survey). Desired family size was four for both males and females. Knowledge and approval of family planning was high, with 83 per cent of females and 81 per cent of males knowing of at least one method. Problems in accessing information and services for family planning include cultural and logistical constraints. Religious affiliation was the major variable affecting knowledge, use and approval of contraceptive methods. Nearly a quarter of the sample lived further than two hours travel time from the nearest health clinic supplying contraceptive methods. These clinics often have only an intermittent availability of supplies. A strong interest in family planning was demonstrated by both respondents and service providers.