Small Effects of Selective Migration and Selective Survival in Retrospective Studies of Fertility

In this study, we assess the accuracy of fertility estimates that stem from the retrospective information that can be derived from an existing cross-sectional population. Swedish population registers contain information on the childbearing of all people ever registered as living in Sweden, and thus allow us to avoid problems of selectivity by the virtue of survival or nonemigration when estimating the fertility measures for previous calendar periods. We calculate two types of fertility rates for each year in 1961–1999: (i) rates that are based on the population that was living in Sweden at the end of 1999, and (ii) rates that also include information on people who had died or emigrated before the turn of the twentieth century. We find that the omission of information on individuals who had emigrated or died, as the situation would be in any demographic survey, most often have negligible effects on fertility measures. However, first-birth rates of immigrants gradually become more biased as we move back in time from 1999 so that they increasingly tend to over-estimate the true fertility of that population.     

Conditional probability and improper priors

ABSTRACT

According to Jeffreys improper priors are needed to get the Bayesian machine up and running. This may be disputed, but usage of improper priors flourish. Arguments based on symmetry or information theoretic reference analysis can be most convincing in concrete cases. The foundations of statistics as usually formulated rely on the axioms of a probability space, or alternative information theoretic axioms that imply the axioms of a probability space. These axioms do not include improper laws, but this is typically ignored in papers that consider improper priors.

The purpose of this paper is to present a mathematical theory that can be used as a foundation for statistics that include improper priors. This theory includes improper laws in the initial axioms and has in particular Bayes theorem as a consequence. Another consequence is that some of the usual calculation rules are modified. This is important in relation to common statistical practice which usually include improper priors, but tends to use unaltered calculation rules. In some cases, the results are valid, but in other cases inconsistencies may appear. The famous marginalization paradoxes exemplify this latter case.

An alternative mathematical theory for the foundations of statistics can be formulated in terms of conditional probability spaces. In this case, the appearance of improper laws is a consequence of the theory. It is proved here that the resulting mathematical structures for the two theories are equivalent. The conclusion is that the choice of the first or the second formulation for the initial axioms can be considered a matter of personal preference. Readers that initially have concerns regarding improper priors can possibly be more open toward a formulation of the initial axioms in terms of conditional probabilities. The interpretation of an improper law is given by the corresponding conditional probabilities.     

Feedback in a multiethnic classroom discussion: a case study

This article focuses on teaching about and for cultural diversity. More specifically, we look at the manner in which different types of teacher feedback either support or hinder student interaction and student learning. We identified seven types of feedback that were used in classroom discussions with 14–15-year-old students. The discussions and the feedback in these discussions provide insight into teaching about cultural diversity and also the impact of specific content that is focused on a sensitive topic. In this case, content of discussions related to a homework assignment about fear in different contexts.

Artikeln berör undervisning för och om kulturell mångfald. Mer specifikt studerar vi vilka typer av feedback som förekommer i en klassrumsdiskussion mellan elever i årskurs 8 och 9 och vad de innebär för elevers lärande. Vi identifierade sju typer av feedback. Sex av dem stödde elevernas lärande medan en av dem motverkade det som undervisningen syftade till. Diskussionen och den feedback som gavs av läraren under lektionerna bidrar med insikt om undervisning om kulturell mångfald, liksom om den inverkan ett särskilt innehåll kan ha. I det här fallet var innehållet i diskussionen relaterat till en läxuppgift om rädsla i olika kontexter.     

Optimized Sampling Strategies for Identifying Modes in Length-frequency Distributions

An approach to evaluate sampling strategies to detect modes in length-distributions is presented. Distributions based on various numbers of samples (S) and sample sizes (n) were simulated from the original cod and capelin data in Icelandic waters, incorporating within sample correlations. A peak was discerned if the difference between any simulated and original distribution did not exceed a pre-specified Δ, given a probability. This was achieved with numerous combinations of S and n, and the optimal choice will depend on the sampling costs. Variance-equivalence curves also illustrate the difference between demanding precision of mean lengths versus precision of length distributions.     

Previous sickness presence among long‐term sick‐listed in Norway and Sweden: A retrospective study of prevalence and self‐reported reasons

The aim of the present study was to analyse previous sickness presence among long‐term sick‐listed individuals in Norway and Sweden and the reasons given for sickness presence. The study was based on survey data for 3,312 persons in Norway and Sweden who had been sick‐listed for at least 30 days. Two questions were used. One measured prevalence: During the last 12 months prior to your current sick leave, did you go to work even when feeling so ill that you should have taken sick leave? The second question concerned reasons for sickness presence. Large differences were found between Norway and Sweden in the prevalence of sickness presence. More long‐term sick‐listed Norwegians than Swedes reported sickness presence [adjusted odds ratio (OR) for Sweden 0.65 (0.53–0.80)]. The Swedes more often reported financial reasons for sickness presence [adjusted OR 2.77 (2.1 to ?3.54)], while the Norwegians more often gave positive reasons related to work. The national differences may be related to differences in sickness insurance strategies.     

Women,reindeer herding and the Internet: an innovative process in northern Sweden

This research note deals with an innovation initiative involving women, reindeer herding and the Internet. It shows how women reindeer herders from a Swedish Sámi village were a driving force in the development of several innovative, EU-funded projects focusing on information and communications technology. The article shows how the innovation initiative involved a wide range of actors, ascribing stakeholders from civil society important roles besides the public and private sectors. The innovation initiative involved several different strategies. One of these strategies was internationalization – both at the European and worldwide levels. This strategy was employed to prevent rigid political hierarchies blocking the prospects of gaining support from local and regional authorities. Another strategy was the continuous exchange of knowledge between engineers and potential end users, adapting the initiative results to the needs of the local context. As a result, the innovation initiative has produced several kinds of outcomes. It has generated new technology as well as economic and social benefits.     

Hat die Lebensstilforschung eine Zukunft?

Zusammenfassung In jüngster Zeit h?ufen sich Versuche einer Bilanzierung der Lebensstilforschung — so von Thomas Meyer und Dieter Hermann. Die Ansprüche der Lebensstilforschung und ihre empirische Evidenz werden dabei selektiv dargestellt und nicht hinreichend systematisiert. Daneben lassen die überwiegend negativen Bilanzen offen, ob die Lebensstilsoziologie als gescheitert anzusehen ist bzw. welche Implikationen für die zukünftige Forschung abzuleiten sind. Der vorliegende Beitrag versteht sich als Bestandsaufnahme mit gr?βerer Systematik: Neun zentrale Behauptungen werden im Licht empirischer Befunde auf ihre Haltbarkeit bewertet. Dabei stehen die viel zitierten Ans?tze des Sinus-Instituts und von Gerhard Schulze im Mittelpunkt. Angelehnt an diese Diskussion werden vier Varianten der Lebensstilanalyse auf ihre Zukunftstr?chtigkeit geprüft. Dabei werden zum einen die Vorzüge variablenorientierter, themenzentrierter Forschungsans?tze betont. Zum anderen wird für typologisch orientierte, lebensstilbasierte Sozialstrukturanalysen das Programm einer theoriereichen Konstruktion replizierbarer Typologien umrissen.      

Finding the best treatment under heavy censoring and hidden bias

Summary.  We analyse male survival duration after hospitalization following an acute myocardial infarction with a large ( N =11024) Finnish data set to find the best performing hospital district (and to disseminate its treatment protocol). This is a multiple-treatment problem with 21 treatments (i.e. 21 hospital districts). The task of choosing the best treatment is difficult owing to heavy right censoring (73%), which makes the usual location measures (the mean and median) unidentified; instead, only lower quantiles are identified. There is also a sample selection issue that only those who made it to a hospital alive are observed (54%); this becomes a problem if we wish to know their potential survival duration after hospitalization, if they had survived to a hospital contrary to the fact. The data set is limited in its covariates—only age is available—but includes the distance to the hospital, which plays an interesting role. Given that only age and distance are observed, it is likely that there are unobserved confounders. To account for them, a sensitivity analysis is conducted following pair matching. All estimators employed point to a clear winner and the sensitivity analysis indicates that the finding is fairly robust.     

跨国人口流动与族群认同——以东南亚的尼泊尔移民为例

通过对缅甸、泰国的尼泊尔移民的田野调查,探讨了跨国人口流动中的族群认同问题。在理论上,运用巴特的族群理论,批判了英美两国人类学传统上视社会和文化为孤立整体的思想,强调社会是一个无序的系统,并且不具备封闭性。而在方法论上,在国内首次阐述了好奇心在人类学田野调查中的重要作用,要求人类学工作者要以具体的人类行为和环境因素为基本研究对象;空间上外延、时间上后延来追溯研究对象的影响因素,同时以现存理论和模型为指导进行研究。     

Muscle pain and coping with working life in Norway: A review

This paper reviews ongoing research initiated by the Norwegian Research Council for Science and Humanities aimed at improving Health and Living Conditions (HEMIL). Attempts to classify muscle pain states are reviewed, and the pathophysiology and psychophysiology of the condition are evaluated. The psychological aspects are emphasized, in particular relationships to coping resources, coping strateges and to what extent the individual feels able to cope with the environment. Also reviewed are multidisciplinary approaches to treatment, aimed at both psychological and physical aspects. Interventions involving physical as well as psychological training seem to have the best effects. The contribution from physical load is moderate, except for static muscle work. There is a growing concern that the response from the welfare society may produce attitudes that are counterproductive for prevention and treatment. Do we over-react and impose disease concepts on regular complaints that may be a part of normal life?.