Estimation of multi-state models with missing covariate values based on observed data likelihood

Abstract

Continuous-time multi-state models are commonly used to study diseases with multiple stages. Potential risk factors associated with the disease are added to the transition intensities of the model as covariates, but missing covariate measurements arise frequently in practice. We propose a likelihood-based method that deals efficiently with a missing covariate in these models. Our simulation study showed that the method performs well for both “missing completely at random” and “missing at random” mechanisms. We also applied our method to a real dataset, the Einstein Aging Study.     

Changing practice cultures in statutory child protection: Practitioners' perspectives

Many child protection systems struggle to implement effective models of frontline practice in the context of high caseloads, increasing costs, and compliance‐focused bureaucratic cultures. This article discusses changes brought about by “Practice First,” a framework for practice introduced to improve the quality and effectiveness of child protection work in New South Wales, Australia. Findings drawn from quantitative and qualitative research with practitioners show that the initiative was effective in changing cultures of practice. It enabled workers to spend more face‐to‐face time with families and build relationships and was perceived to improve the quality of decision‐making. At the same time, the article highlights difficulties in attempting to embed change in practice cultures when broader systemic challenges persist.     

Social Worker Assessed Vulnerable Income Management

Despite the small size of the sub program, Social Worker Assessed Vulnerable Welfare Payment Recipients Income Management is often cited as a preferred approach to this type of initiative, being tightly targeted at a group of people with identified high needs, and demonstrated poor outcomes. Although the program was considered in the two recent major evaluations of income management, specific findings relating to it have tended to be overshadowed by the more general finding of an absence of positive outcomes, and indeed potentially negative effects, from compulsory income management. While the size of the sub program has made evaluation difficult, the two major evaluations of income management have nevertheless made specific findings which suggest that the program has had some positive outcomes for a highly marginal participant group. These findings, along with aspects of the operation of the program, including the role played by social workers, and a proposal to abolish the program, are discussed.     

Discrepancy,Arousal and Labeling: Towards a Psychosocial Theory of Emotion*

The relation of schematic discrepancy to emotional experience is discussed. It is argued that schematic discrepancy constitutes one important basis of emotional arousal and that we label arousal according to rules defined by discrepancy. The identifying and processing of discrepancies is described within an information processing framework. The labeling of both positive and negative emotions (defined as differing in the resolution of discrepancy) is discussed. Cultural influences on both the experiencing and labeling of emotion are elaborated and implications are drawn.     

Demography and Public Health Emergency Preparedness: Making the Connection

The tools and techniques of population sciences are extremely relevant to the discipline of public health emergency preparedness: protecting and securing the population’s health requires information about that population. While related fields such as security studies have successfully integrated demographic tools into their research and literature, the theoretical and practical connection between the methods of demography and the practice of public health emergency preparedness is weak. This article suggests the need to further the interdisciplinary use of demography by examining the need for a systematic use of population science techniques in public health emergency preparedness. Ultimately, we demonstrate how public health emergency preparedness can incorporate demography to develop more effective preparedness plans. Important policy implications emerge: demographers and preparedness experts need to collaborate more formally in order to facilitate community resilience and mitigate the consequences of public health emergencies.