The current state of the labor queue: National and regional Evidence

We employ vector autoregressive techniques to determine the current state of the labor queue. Unemployment rate differentials have narrowed in recent years, potentially due to a change in the queue ordering, though a tight labor market and a stable queue would yield similar results. We find no evidence that the queue ordering has changed, which brings into question the resiliency of gains made by minority groups. We employ the same techniques to reveal the state of the queue across geographic regions and find that substantial differences exist across regions, implying variation in the relative labor force status of demographic groups.     

当代印度南部婆罗门状况的个案分析——以奈保尔《印度:百万叛变的今天》为例

当代印度社会正发生着极大的变动,社会各阶层都在极力维护固有地位和宗教传统的稳定,并极力在这种变动中争取着自身社会利益的最大化。其中,南印度婆罗门种姓在逐步丧失传统的各项特权和优势地位的同时,也在努力适应、应对当代社会的新变化和新挑战。英国作家V.S.奈保尔的《印度:百万叛变的今天》一书提供了较为翔实、客观的口述史资料。以书中生活在孟买、班加罗尔、马德拉斯、加尔各达等南印度城市中的当代婆罗门阶层作为个案,可探究出其面对传统社会生活中的各个层面发生变动时的态度与应对及个体内在的深层原因,并在一定程度上考察社会变动与文化传统之间的互动关系。     

论奥运经济的八大特征

奥运会是全球影响最为广泛的体育运动,现已成为能提供体育文化产品和服务的产业。奥运经济至少具有稀缺性、公共性、资产专用性、区域性、阶段性、间接性、文化性、政治性等特征。只有准确把握奥运经济的基本特征,才能在弘扬奥林匹克精神的基础上收到最大的经济效益。     

Bayesian analysis of a marked point process: Application in seismic hazard assessment

Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data, complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems.     

Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.     

当代中国美学：走向生态美学

当代中国美学出现了多元化趋势,其中后实践美学对实践美学的超越、生态美学的异军突起等都是美学界引人注目的理论现象.我们认为 ,无论实践美学还是后实践美学,都是某一阶段的重要理论现象,它随特定历史环境而产生,并在一定历史条件下被另一种学说所替代.生态美学的出现一方面适应了社会的发展要求,另一方面又全面激活了美学的理论研究与中国传统文化的现代转型.因此,当代中国美学走向应该是生态美学.     

植物功能基因组学手段

综述了近几年发展起来的几种植物功能基因组学手段，对这些方法的优缺点作了比较．并讨论了植物功能基因组学的发展前景。     

Unresolved Conflicts in the Regional Security System: The Case of the South Caucasus

The collapse of the USSR was accompanied by transformation of the South Caucasian latent ethnopolitical conflicts into local wars. Today the situation in the area of the conflicts is “neither war, nor peace”. Three unresolved conflicts of the South Caucasus can be considered as one of the most serious obstacles for establishing a regional security system.The article gives the general characteristics of these conflicts, the trends of their development, taking into account the time factor, and analyzes the behavioral models of the main players – de jure recognized and unrecognized de facto states of the South Caucasus. The basic objective of the main players should be to keep the situation on a level preventing the resumption of the armed conflicts. The attempts of forced resolution of the conflicts are fraught with destabilization of the situation not only in the area of any of these conflicts but in the whole region.