The Price Effects of Family Caps on Fertility Decisions of Poor Women

ABSTRACT

Family Caps have been a popular welfare reform policy designed to discourage women on welfare from bearing additional children. It has been thought that the principal mechanism through which a Cap achieves its objective of lower birth rates is the financial pressure placed on women by the denial of cash benefits. Our study uses instrumental variables Probit modeling to directly measure the contribution that price makes to Cap impact on births. We reexamine data from the New Jersey Family Development Program (n = 8,393) experiment and find that only a very small percentage (about 2.5%) of the overall Family Cap effect reported in earlier studies can be attributed to price. Moreover, the price effect holds only for short-term Black welfare recipients. We speculate that much of the unexplained Family Cap treatment effect stems from a message of social pressure and disapproval toward welfare receipt and childbearing on welfare. We offer a possible direction for future research which would directly measure the social disapproval component.     

But is it ‘Fair'? The UK Coalition Government, ‘Fairness’ and the ‘Reform’ of Public Sector Pensions

The article analyses arguments for reform of public sector pension schemes by the UK Coalition government on the grounds that existing provision is ‘unfair’. Three dimensions of ‘fairness’ are discussed. That between public and private sector provision; between the costs to public sector employees and other taxpayers; and between members of public sector schemes. The article argues that there are serious weaknesses in the Coalition position on each of these dimensions of ‘fairness’. It suggests that these weaknesses are rooted in the discussion of public sector pensions in isolation from the overall pattern of occupational pension provision in the UK and that a more satisfactory analysis requires reference to principles of distributive justice.     

Differentiating classroom climate concepts: Academic,management, and emotional environments

Abstract

Extensive research has validated the relationship between classroom climate and students’ social, motivational, and cognitive development. Despite improved methods of measurement, the construct itself is still nebulous and hard to delineate. One reason is that there are different dimensions to classroom climate. We examine the literature and suggest that there are three differentiable components: (1) academic, referring to pedagogical and curricular elements of the learning environment; (2) management, referring to discipline styles for maintaining order; and (3) emotional, the affective interactions within the classroom. While these components overlap, emotional climate is the least recognised or studied, and yet equally consequential. Based on our theoretical and empirical work we outline some of the characteristics of the emotional environment. We argue for the importance of treating emotional climate as a distinct aspect of classroom climate. As a concept, the emotional climate of the classroom is superordinate to other classroom climate domains, since it interfaces with the conventional academic and management elements of effective learning environments.     

A Dynamic Perspective on Diverse Teams: Moving from the Dual-Process Model to a Dynamic Coordination-based Model of Diverse Team Performance

The existing literature on diverse teams suggests that diversity is both helpful to teams in making more information available and encouraging creativity and damaging to teams in reducing cohesion and information sharing. Thus the extant literature suggests that diversity within teams is a double-edged sword that leads to both positive and negative effects simultaneously. This literature has not, however, fully embraced the increasing calls in the broader groups literature to take account of time in understanding how groups function [e.g. Cronin, M. A., Weingart, L. R., &; Todorova, G. (2011). Dynamics in groups: Are we there yet? The Academy of Management Annals, 5, 571–612]. We review the literature on diverse teams employing this lens to develop a dynamic perspective that takes account of the timing and flow of diversity's effects. Our review suggests that diversity in groups has different short-term and long-term effects in ways that are not fully captured by the currently dominant double-edged sword metaphor. We identify an emerging perspective that suggests a tropical depression metaphor—that has the potential, over time, to develop either into a dangerous hurricane or diffuse into a rainstorm that gives way to sunshine, as more apt to capture the dynamic effects of diversity in teams. We conclude by outlining an agenda for redirecting future research on diverse teams using this more dynamic perspective.     

新自由主义方案依然活着但其合法性已然丧失——英国马克思主义学者大卫·哈维专访

大卫·哈维是享誉全球的马克思主义理论家。由他主讲的《资本论》以系列课程的形式在网上受到一致好评。2019年2月,大卫·哈维在专访中谈及新自由主义方案所带来的种种难题,比如导致民粹主义政治和右翼主义运动的兴起,同时也论及马克思主义对资本主义的批判在当今时代的主要价值、技术自动化给当代工人造成的挑战等。     

The transitional impacts of material and service offshoring

The recent expansion of offshoring intermediate services has given rise to public fears and a possible pullback from a liberal trading system. Modeling and estimating intermediate offshoring is complicated since the shock is further down the production process. This paper incorporates the necessary transmission mechanisms into a data-intensive CGE model for the State of Colorado to estimate the current and future impacts of continuing a liberal trade policy for offshoring intermediates. The results indicate that while the overall effects of offshoring are small and positive, the future directions of service offshoring are projected to cause sizable domestic job destruction and displacement. Policies may have to be implemented to retrain domestic workers who face job loss or even consider curtailing future offshoring opportunities.     

Bayesian confidence intervals for means and variances of lognormal and bivariate lognormal distributions

The lognormal distribution is currently used extensively to describe the distribution of positive random variables. This is especially the case with data pertaining to occupational health and other biological data. One particular application of the data is statistical inference with regards to the mean of the data. Other authors, namely Zou et al. (2009), have proposed procedures involving the so-called “method of variance estimates recovery” (MOVER), while an alternative approach based on simulation is the so-called generalized confidence interval, discussed by Krishnamoorthy and Mathew (2003). In this paper we compare the performance of the MOVER-based confidence interval estimates and the generalized confidence interval procedure to coverage of credibility intervals obtained using Bayesian methodology using a variety of different prior distributions to estimate the appropriateness of each. An extensive simulation study is conducted to evaluate the coverage accuracy and interval width of the proposed methods. For the Bayesian approach both the equal-tail and highest posterior density (HPD) credibility intervals are presented. Various prior distributions (Independence Jeffreys' prior, Jeffreys'-Rule prior, namely, the square root of the determinant of the Fisher Information matrix, reference and probability-matching priors) are evaluated and compared to determine which give the best coverage with the most efficient interval width. The simulation studies show that the constructed Bayesian confidence intervals have satisfying coverage probabilities and in some cases outperform the MOVER and generalized confidence interval results. The Bayesian inference procedures (hypothesis tests and confidence intervals) are also extended to the difference between two lognormal means as well as to the case of zero-valued observations and confidence intervals for the lognormal variance. In the last section of this paper the bivariate lognormal distribution is discussed and Bayesian confidence intervals are obtained for the difference between two correlated lognormal means as well as for the ratio of lognormal variances, using nine different priors.     

An Alternative Exact Solution of the Two-Stage Clonal Growth Model of Cancer

The approximate solution of the two-stage clonal expansion model of cancer may substantially deviate from the exact solution, and may therefore lead to erroneous conclusions in particular applications. However, for time-varying parameters the exact solution (method of characteristics) is not easy to implement, hampering the accessibility of the model to nonmathematicians. Based on intuitive reasoning, Clewell et al. (1995) proposed an improved approximate solution that is easy to implement whatever time-varying behavior the parameters may have. Here we provide the mathematical foundation for the approximation suggested by Clewell et al. (1995) and show that, after a slight modification, it is in fact an exact solution for the case of time-constant parameters. We were not able to prove that it is an exact solution for time-varying parameters as well. However, several computer simulations showed that the numerical results do not differ from the exact solution as proposed by Moolgavkar and Luebeck (1990). The advantage of this alternative solution is that the hazard rate of the first malignant cell can be evaluated by numerically integrating a single differential equation.