A robustness framework for monitoring real options under uncertainty

This paper presents a problem structuring methodology to assess real option decisions in the face of unpredictability. Based on principles of robustness analysis and scenario planning, we demonstrate how decision-aiding can facilitate participation in projects setting and achieve effective decision making through the use of real options reasoning. We argue that robustness heuristics developed in earlier studies can be practical proxies for real options performance, hence indicators of efficient flexible planning. The developed framework also highlights how to integrate real options solutions in firms’ strategic plans and operating actions. The use of the methodology in a location decision application is provided for illustration.     

Tax-funded unionism: The unemployment connection

Labor unions are widely regarded as private organizations which finance their activities exclusively through revenues collected from members and others who are covered by collective bargaining agreements. In reality, however, U.S. unions receive millions of dollars each year through grants and contracts from federal, state, and local governments for a variety of purposes, including aid to the unemployed; these funds are used (sometimes illegally) to finance union operations, including political activities. This article briefly explores the phenomenon of tax-funded unionism.     

Employee exposure to coworker substance use and negative consequences: the moderating effects of work group membership.

The current study assesses: (1) whether the relationship between individual exposure to coworker substance use and negative consequences resulting from exposure depends on work group membership, and (2) whether group-level characteristics moderate the relationship between exposure and consequences. At the group-level, we assessed occupations involving safety risk or high mobility and social factors of drinking climate and group cohesiveness. We conducted Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM) across two samples of municipal employees (ns = 650, 878; n of groups = 50, 49). Our results revealed that groups with higher proportions of jobs involving risk (e.g., machine work) and, to a lesser extent, groups with a higher level of drinking climate were those most vulnerable to consequences under conditions of exposure. Importantly, our findings controlled for individual risk factors (e.g., personal drinking, job stress). Our discussion examines the implications of this study for theory and policy related to workplace substance abuse.     

Robust models in probability sampling

In the estimation of a population mean or total from a random sample, certain methods based on linear models are known to be automatically design consistent, regardless of how well the underlying model describes the population. A sufficient condition is identified for this type of robustness to model failure; the condition, which we call 'internal bias calibration', relates to the combination of a model and the method used to fit it. Included among the internally bias-calibrated models, in addition to the aforementioned linear models, are certain canonical link generalized linear models and nonparametric regressions constructed from them by a particular style of local likelihood fitting. Other models can often be made robust by using a suboptimal fitting method. Thus the class of model-based, but design consistent, analyses is enlarged to include more realistic models for certain types of survey variable such as binary indicators and counts. Particular applications discussed are the estimation of the size of a population subdomain, as arises in tax auditing for example, and the estimation of a bootstrap tail probability.     

Floating ideas—An experiment in enhancing hypergames with maps

Within the OR community, an increasing emphasis is being placed on developing approaches to tackle complex, ‘messy’ decision problems. The work described in this paper arose out of the premise that it would be desirable to integrate ideas from a number of different approaches of this type. Specifically, the paper describes one experimental attempt to link methods for modelling conflict situations (the analysis of options and hypergames) with the cognitive mapping approach to eliciting subjective data. Taking a personally-owned decision problem, mapping was used to enrich the game-based approaches by providing a way of documenting the argumentation underlying the models used. Though difficult to generalise from, the experiment not only suggested that such an extension is likely to be an improvement, but also highlighted some deficiencies in the existing versions of the game-based approaches themselves.     

The Role of Second-Order Belief-Understanding and Social Context in Children's Self-Attribution of Social Emotions

Children's self-attribution of social emotions was hypothesised (i) to be related to their second-order belief-understanding and (ii) to be more strongly related to social- conventional than moral rule violations. Thirty children aged between 4 and 7 years were presented with Sullivan, Zaitchik & Tager-Flusberg's (1994) second-order false belief task and with four hypothetical scenarios in which they were required to imagine that they had violated particular moral and social conventional rules. As predicted, the self-attribution of social emotions was significantly related to second-order belief understanding, primarily in social-conventional rather than moral contexts.     

Does the Organization of Emotional Expression Change Over Time? Facial Expressivity From 4 to 12 Months

Differentiation models contend that the organization of facial expressivity increases during infancy. Accordingly, infants are believed to exhibit increasingly specific facial expressions in response to stimuli as a function of development. This study tested this hypothesis in a sample of 151 infants (83 boys and 68 girls) observed in 4 situations (tickle, sour taste, arm restraint, and masked stranger) at 4 and 12 months of age. Three of the 4 situations showed evidence of increasing specificity over time. In response to tickle, the number of infants exhibiting joy expressions increased and the number exhibiting interest, surprise, and surprise blends decreased from 4 to 12 months. In tasting a sour substance, more infants exhibited disgust and fewer exhibited joy and interest expressions, and fear and surprise blends over time. For arm restraint, more infants exhibited anger expressions and anger blends and fewer exhibited interest and surprise expressions and surprise blends over time. In response to a masked stranger, however, no evidence of increased specificity was found. Overall, these findings suggest that infants increasingly exhibit particular expressions in response to specific stimuli during the 1st year of life. These data provide partial support for the hypothesis that facial expressivity becomes increasingly organized over time.     

Twenty-five years before the masthead: Confessions of a journal editor

After two-and-a-half decades as Editor of the Journal of Labor Research, I share some of my thinking about academic research in general and about journal editing, the review process, and the publishing game, in particular. This irreverent (and sometimes irrelevant) personal perspective should not be taken too seriously — indeed, journal editors should never take themselves too seriously.