On the misinterpretation of certain obsolete multivariate models

The prudent reader who does not understand something in a research report should inquire of the researcher concerning the precise nature of the problem. Had Professor Kuz contacted me, Professor Latif (then working half-way across town from him), or some third party knowledgable in the field in this regard, he would have been spared the embarrassment of committing more mistakes than I can hope to identify in this short space. I would have been spared the time and trouble to locate and correct them. The Review would have been spared the unhappy task of keeping some worthy contribution unpublished while choosing to publish Professor Kuz' comments.     

Consideration of Background Exposures in the Management of Hazardous Waste Sites: A New Approach to Risk Assessment

The current approach to health risk assessment of toxic waste sites in the U.S. may lead to considerable expenditure of resources without any meaningful reduction in population exposure. Risk assessment methods used generally ignore background exposures and consider only incremental risk estimates for maximally exposed individuals. Such risk estimates do not address true public health risks to which background exposures also contribute. The purpose of this paper is to recommend a new approach to risk assessment and risk management concerning toxic waste sites. Under this new approach, which we have called public health risk assessment, chemical substances would be classified into a level of concern based on the potential health risks associated with typical national and regional background exposures. Site assessment would then be based on the level of concern for the particular pollutants involved and the potential contribution of site contaminants to typical background human exposures. While various problems can be foreseen with this approach, the key advantage is that resources would be allocated to reduce the most important sources of human exposure, and site remediation decisions could be simplified by focussing on exposure assessment rather than questionable risk extrapolations.     

Interrelationships between fertility and marital dissolution: Results of a simultaneous logit model

Previous studies have failed to examine (a) the simultaneity of decisions to bear children and to dissolve a marriage and (b) the effects of the childbearing in the period just before dissolution on the likelihood of disruption. We attempted to resolve both problems by developing a simultaneous logit model of the interrelationship between the probability of separation and of having a birth during this period (when dissolution presumably is being considered). The model was estimated at successive durations of first marriage, using data for white women in the 1970 National Fertility Survey. The results indicate that childbearing patterns— number of children and age of youngest child at the beginning of the marital interval being studied and fertility during the interval—did not influence the likelihood of separation in simple or consistent ways over the marital life course, nor did marital strife (as indicated by separation) seem to affect childbearing throughout marriage.     

Do female candidates ‘lose votes’?: the experience of female candidates in the 1979 and 1980 Canadian general elections

Dans quelle mesure la sous-représentation des femmes au Parlement du Canada est-elle attribuable à la “perte de votes”? II est évident que lorsque les femmes se présentent à la députation sur un pied d‘égalité avec les hommes en ce qui concerne un rival titulaire, la compétitivité du siège disputé, et le parti politique, les femmes n'obtiennent pas moins de votes que les hommes. Les femmes sont également plus aptes àêtre choisies pour disputer des sièges à des titulaires ou des sièges que le parti a peu ou pas de chance de gagner. II est done peu probable que l’échec relatif des femmes aux élections fédérates soit directement relié aux sentiments des électeurs. II apparait plutôt que le succès limité des femmes dans la politique fédérale au Canada est dû aux difficultés qu'elles ont à se faire nommer pour disputer des sièges qu'elles auraient une assez bonne chance de gagner. This paper explores the extent to which the under-representation of women in the House of Commons in Canada can be attributed to female candidates “losing votes.” The evidence suggests that, when male and female candidates are equated in terms of running against an incumbent, competitiveness of the contested seat, and political party, the women do not receive fewer votes than the men. At the same time, women were more likely than men to be nominated to contest seats against incumbents or seats which their party had little or no chance of winning. It does not seem, then, that the relative failure of women in federal elections can be traced directly to voters' sentiments. Rather, it appears as if the limited success of women in federal politics in Canada largely originates in their difficulties in securing nominations to contest seats which they have some reasonable prospect of winning.     

School-based interventions with depressed minority adolescents

School-based approaches to intervention with depressed minority adolescents is discussed within a preventive framework. The symptomatology and epidemiology of depression is presented as it pertains to minority group adolescents. Specific suggestions for school-based services, the uses of school-based mental health professionals, and for coordination with mental health agencies are provided.