Daddy months

We consider a bargaining model in which husband and wife decide on the allocation of time and disposable income, and fertility. Since her bargaining power would go down otherwise more strongly, the wife agrees to have a child only if the husband also leaves the labor market for a while. The daddy months subsidy enables the couple to overcome a hold-up problem and thereby improves efficiency. However, the same ruling harms other types of couples and may also reduce welfare in an endogenous taxation framework.     

Wilhelm Reich über den 15. Juli 1927

The psychoanalyst Wilhelm Reich (1897–1957), in those days a Marxist, has been an eyewitness of the events of July 15, 1927—the burning down of the Justizpalast and the shooting down of a spontaneous mass-demonstration in the center of Vienna. In 1937 Reich wrote a report about this experience that gave him the impulse to elaborate his own Mass-psychology of Fascism in 1933.     

Nonparametric change point estimation for survival distributions with a partially constant hazard rate

Lifetime Data Analysis - We present a new method for estimating a change point in the hazard function of a survival distribution assuming a constant hazard rate after the change point and a...     

Metabolism and colonization. Modes of production and the physical exchange between societies and nature

Written by a sociologist and a biologist, this paper attempts an interdisciplinary approach to describing the basic exchange relations between human societies and their natural environments. One type of exchange relation is termed ‘metabolism’ and related to the biological metabolism member organisms of societies require. A historical overview (part 1) demonstrates this exchange relation in terms of mass throughput per inhabitant to have grown in the course of human cultural evolution—without necessarily increasing the quality of life of those concerned—to the twentyfold it now amounts to in industrial societies (as is demonstrated empirically for Austria in part 3). A strategy of ‘contraction of physical metabolism’ (reduction of physical growth irrespective of ‘economic’ growth) of industrial societies is proposed as a strategic means of survival and possible ways to this goal are discussed quantitatively. The other exchange relation termed ‘colonization’ refers to treatments of natural environments that purposively change some components to render better exploitability (for the purpose of social metabolism), while still relying upon their basic self‐regenerating qualities. It is sketched how colonization strategies developed historically, and it is demonstrated empirically that industrial societies now use about 50% of the available plant biomass (the energetic basis of all animal life) upon their territories for human purposes (part 4). Part 5 classifies different ‘paradigms’ for judging the ‘harmfulness’ of social interventions into the environment and outlines the logic of an information system that would enable society to generate an awareness of its own interventions into nature. On the whole the paper presents a theoretical as well as an empirical attempt to view societies as physical systems (among other physical systems on this planet) and confront sociology with the paradigmatic task to analyze the social regulation of these physical processes.     

Econometric analysis of high frequency data

Summary Owing to enormous advances in data acquisition and processing technology the study of high (or ultra) frequency data has become an important area of econometrics. At least three avenues of econometric methods have been followed to analyze high frequency financial data: Models in tick time ignoring the time dimension of sampling, duration models specifying the time span between transactions and, finally, fixed time interval techniques. Starting from the strong assumption that quotes are irregularly generated from an underlying exogeneous arrival process, fixed interval models promise feasibility of familiar time series techniques. Moreover, fixed interval analysis is a natural means to investigate multivariate dynamics. In particular, models of price discovery are implemented in this venue of high frequency econometrics. Recently, a sound statistical theory of ‘realized volatility’ has been developed. In this framework high frequency log price changes are seen as a means to observe volatility at some lower frequency.     

Structural vector autoregressive analysis for cointegrated variables

Summary Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are capable of capturing the dynamic structure of many time series variables. Impulse response functions are typically used to investigate the relationships between the variables included in such models. In this context the relevant impulses or innovations or shocks to be traced out in an impulse response analysis have to be specified by imposing appropriate identifying restrictions. Taking into account the cointegration structure of the variables offers interesting possibilities for imposing identifying restrictions. Therefore VAR models which explicitly take into account the cointegration structure of the variables, so-called vector error correction models, are considered. Specification, estimation and validation of reduced form vector error correction models is briefly outlined and imposing structural short- and long-run restrictions within these models is discussed. I thank an anonymous reader for comments on an earlier draft of this paper that helped me to improve the exposition.     

No islands: charting a course for UK official statistics

Our system of official statistics in the UK is one of the most decentralised and elaborate in the world. As well as the Office for National Statistics (ONS), it spans several sizeable centres of expertise in Whitehall departments and in the three devolved administrations; and it embraces agencies such as the Higher Education Statistics Agency and the Information Centre for Health and Social Care, which sit at arms length from central departments. In 2008, legislation establishing a new Statistics Board, with oversight not just of the ONS but of all official figures produced by these bodies, will come fully into force. Richard Alldritt of the Statistics Commission and Richard Laux of the ONS identify some of the challenges facing the statistical system at this time of transition and suggests a course that the Statistics Board might want to steer.