Non-stationary structural model with time-varying demand elasticities

The paper considers local linear regression of a time series model with non-stationary regressors and errors. Asymptotic property of the local linear estimator is derived under a new dependence measure of non-stationary time series. We apply the local linear regression method to estimate the “time-varying” coefficients of an economic-causal model for the industrial sector of the U.S. economy. Nonparametric bootstrap test on the time-varying coefficients strongly suggests that the price/income elasticities of the U.S. durable goods demand are time-varying.     

Sports PR in message boards on Major League Baseball websites

Message boards are possible places for sports fans to actively express and exchange their opinions. The purpose of this study is to explore the typology of message board uses on sports websites. The analysis of 1350 topics on eight Major League Baseball teams’ websites for 10 days revealed that: (1) the cognitive need of using message boards in a sports organization's website was an outstanding motivation; (2) sharing opinions was a new motivation category (compared to traditional uses and gratifications) that was found to be dominant; and (3) winning teams and losing teams’ message boards were significantly different in terms of number of topics, number of users, and optimism score; however, messages seemed to be optimistic. Implications for public relations practitioners suggest that the message board is an excellent monitoring tool for them as well as a fine communication tool between sports organizations and fans.     

Simultaneous prediction intervals for multiple comparisons with a standard

k normal populations having common variance are used to construct two-sided and one-sided simultaneous prediction intervals for the differences between the future means of independent random sample from each of these populations compared to a standard. These prediction intervals are particularly useful if one has sampled the performance of several products and wishes to simultaneously predict the differences between future sample mean performance of these products and a standard with a predetermined joint probability. Methods on sample size determination are also given. The procedures are illustrated with a numerical example. Received: February 25, 2000; revised version: February 6, 2001     

Noninformative priors for linear combinations of the normal means

In this paper, we develop noninformative priors for linear combinations of the means under the normal populations. It turns out that among the reference priors the one-at-a-time reference prior satisfies a second order probability matching criterion. Moreover, the second order probability matching priors match alternative coverage probabilities up to the second order and are also HPD matching priors. Our simulation study indicates that the one-at-a-time reference prior performs better than the other reference priors in terms of matching the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense.     

Probabilistic modeling of percutaneous absorption for risk-based exposure assessments and transdermal drug delivery

Chemical transport through human skin can play a significant role in human exposure to toxic chemicals in the workplace, as well as to chemical/biological warfare agents in the battlefield. The viability of transdermal drug delivery also relies on chemical transport processes through the skin. Models of percutaneous absorption are needed for risk-based exposure assessments and drug-delivery analyses, but previous mechanistic models have been largely deterministic. A probabilistic, transient, three-phase model of percutaneous absorption of chemicals has been developed to assess the relative importance of uncertain parameters and processes that may be important to risk-based assessments. Penetration routes through the skin that were modeled include the following: (1) intercellular diffusion through the multiphase stratum corneum; (2) aqueous-phase diffusion through sweat ducts; and (3) oil-phase diffusion through hair follicles. Uncertainty distributions were developed for the model parameters, and a Monte Carlo analysis was performed to simulate probability distributions of mass fluxes through each of the routes. Sensitivity analyses using stepwise linear regression were also performed to identify model parameters that were most important to the simulated mass fluxes at different times. This probabilistic analysis of percutaneous absorption (PAPA) method has been developed to improve risk-based exposure assessments and transdermal drug-delivery analyses, where parameters and processes can be highly uncertain.     

Not so great expectations: sex and housewives in Hong Kong

The study explores the life of married women who are being described as having "good," "normal," "blessed" sexuality. The case of si-nais (housewives) in Hong Kong shows that we can never assume that married women (or any social category) are privileged by virtue of their status on the sexual hierarchy. The blessings of social respectability apparently enjoyed by these women may work to enable or hinder women's expression of their erotic desires and sexual fulfillment, depending on their special social circumstances. These women's imagination and experience of good sex is composed of a multitude of components. Women may feel good because they can achieve other psychological and social aims that are important in their lives (which could be related to the maintenance of marriage or the peace of the family). Women may feel good because of the erotic satisfaction that they derive from different pursuits including interests, leisure or other intimate relationships, rather than sexual fulfillment in terms of orgasm or physical pleasure. Women may reformulate their pleasure variously at different stages of their lives. Social respectability, orgasm, emotional intimacy, or any other specific element, may all enter or leave the formula for good sex.     

Stagnation as a Distinct Clinical Syndrome: Comparing 'Yu' (Stagnation) in Traditional Chinese Medicine with Depression

Background: Depression was translated into Chinese as yiyu,with reference to the yu syndrome in traditional Chinese medicine.Literally meaning ‘not flowing, entangled or clogged’,yu, or ‘stagnation’ in English, is, however, a constructdistinct from depression. Objective: The study aimed to explorethe construct of stagnation through scale development. Method:A concept-driven approach was adopted to generate candidateitems for the Stagnation Scale. Other measures were a validitychecking item, a Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) and a twelve-itemGeneral Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). Respondents were recruitedby convenience and snowball sampling, resulting in 602 questionnairesbeing completed by adults between the ages of eighteen and sixty-five.Results: Exploratory factor analysis provided a three-factor,sixteen-item solution. The three factors were named Overattachment,Body-Mind Obstruction and Affect-Posture Inhibition. Cronbach’salphas of the entire scale and subscales ranged from 0.82 to0.91. Correlations of the scale total with the validity checkingitem, BDI and GHQ-12 were 0.71, 0.53 and 0.48, respectively.Stagnation showed a pattern of associations with demographicvariables different from depression. Conclusion: The StagnationScale has good psychometric properties, and has meaningful factorstructures. The evidence supports the contention that stagnationis a clinical syndrome distinct from depression. The new concepthas important implications for social work practice.     

Adolescent Residents Negotiate the Construction of Social Problems in a Low-Income Community: Making Claims on the “City of Sadness”

The social constructionist approach to research on social issues provides a conceptual means in understanding how specific problems are generated and handled by institutional claims-makers, including the state and mass media. In neighborhood research, the voice of adolescent residents is seldom heard, let alone the value of their claims in relation to the state's construction. This article endeavors to address this in several steps: by outlining the specific developmental trajectory of low-income community in Hong Kong; by examining the dominant state discourse on the nature and “solution” of community problems; and by analyzing the voice of adolescent residents. Empirically, 54 Chinese adolescents (aged 12 to 17 years) were recruited to participate in eight focus groups to express how they saw community conditions. Furthermore, a random sample of 22 parents of the participants was surveyed as comparison. Finally, the article suggests that adolescents' constructions provide significant opportunities developing more critically informed, “bottom-up” agendas for community revitalization.     

Hong Kong men's stories of intra-national cross border romances

This article explores experiences of gender, love, sex and family during the present period of complex social transformation in Hong Kong (HK) and the mainland through the narratives of five HK men and their adventures across the border. Whilst initially rose-tinted, their adventures encountered unexpected problems and brought about unforeseen needs. The article explores the emotions and responsibilities these men needed to contend with as they tried to exploit the opportunities that the mainland presented and argues for the need for services and support for the increasing number of men who frequently cross the border to achieve their goals.     

Altruism Within the Family: A Comparison of Father and Mother Using Life Happiness and Life Satisfaction

Studies on intra-household allocation of resources show that exogenous increase in mothers’ income has larger effect on children’s outcomes than the same increase in fathers’ income, suggesting gender differences may exist in parents’ altruism towards their children. Using self-reported life happiness and life satisfaction, we investigate the differences by gender in mutual altruism between father and child as well as mother and child dyads in Singapore. We found that mutual altruism exists between mother and child, but not between father and child. These findings are robust to the measure of self-reported well-being. Further, we find that gender difference in altruism of fathers and mothers is not driven by the difference in the extent of future old age support desired by fathers and mothers from their children.