乡土中国的人口弱化和优化研究

文章从人口优化视角剖析乡土人口发展的弱化及其对农村发展带来的影响,对“无农不稳”给出双重意义的新解读;并尝试对三农问题作出新的诠释.无农不稳的新含义是没有新的农民人口,农业将缺乏人口保障,城市将缺乏农村的保障.农村劳动力的无序、过度转移导致农村的凋敝与衰退;人口萎缩、人口亏损和人口断层的新“三农”问题导致农村人口发展脆弱化.文章同时提出兴农、助农、安农、福农的“四农”主张,以优化农村人口发展.     

高等教育劳动力与中国经济增长 ——基于1999-2007年的面板数据分析

 本文运用人力资本理论和柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,基于1999-2007年分地区高等教育劳动力的面板数据,计算分析了高等教育劳动力（接受过大专及以上学历教育的劳动力）对中国经济增长的贡献。结果表明：高等教育劳动力对经济增长的贡献呈递增趋势,表现出明显的区域差异,东部贡献率最高,中部次之,西部最低。随着时间的推移和人力资本积累效应的逐步显现,高等教育劳动力对经济增长的贡献程度将会越来越大,高等教育仍有较大发展空间。     

线性GMDH参数模型的无偏估计研究

 多元线性回归分析中,参数无偏性是参数估计方法的一个重要指标。本文对线性GMDH参数模型建立多元线性模型进行了研究,得到以下结论：一,在满足经典线性回归模型的假设条件下,其参数估计量具有无偏的性质;二,在满足其它假设条件下,可以在样本量少于待估参数的情况下建模,估计的参数也是无偏的;三,用参数GMHD方法建模时,它对完全多重共线性是免疫的。     

Nonlinear measures of association with kernel canonical correlation analysis and applications

Measures of association between two sets of random variables have long been of interest to statisticians. The classical canonical correlation analysis (LCCA) can characterize, but also is limited to, linear association. This article introduces a nonlinear and nonparametric kernel method for association study and proposes a new independence test for two sets of variables. This nonlinear kernel canonical correlation analysis (KCCA) can also be applied to the nonlinear discriminant analysis. Implementation issues are discussed. We place the implementation of KCCA in the framework of classical LCCA via a sequence of independent systems in the kernel associated Hilbert spaces. Such a placement provides an easy way to carry out the KCCA. Numerical experiments and comparison with other nonparametric methods are presented.     

白朗宁夫人十四行诗赏析

十九世纪英国著名诗人白朗宁夫人的十四行诗,有其独到的魅力。它连绵不断,委婉缠绵;起伏跌宕,盘旋曲折;并且体现了女诗人“小声柔气”,贞静平和之特点。无论其情感内容,还是形式都为我们展示了一个优美的精神世界,对于我们抵御现代文明生命物化,提高精神有着重要意义。     

Fuzzy Testing for One-Sided Process Capability Indices

Process capability indices are widely used to evaluate the performance of processes in the manufacturing industry. Over the years, the issues have been investigated extensively. Some articles have studied them with fuzzy estimation. However, it seems that no article has proposed a version of triangular fuzzy numbers for critical value to test the process capability. In this article, we use Buckley's approach (2003 Buckley , J. J. ( 2003 ). Fuzzy Probabilities: New Approach and Application . Heidelberg : Physica-Verlag .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) to construct the triangular fuzzy numbers for C _pl and C _pu , especially, the triangular fuzzy numbers for critical values are derived to execute the fuzzy hypothesis testing for C _pl and C _pu . Some numerical examples are taken to illustrate the proposed methodology.     

New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World: Rises,Falls, and Reversals

With period fertility having risen in many low‐fertility countries, an important emerging question is whether cohort fertility trends are also reversing. We produce new estimates of cohort fertility for 37 developed countries using a new, simple method that avoids the underestimation typical of previous approaches. Consistent with the idea that timing changes were largely responsible for the last decades' low period fertility, we find that family size has remained considerably higher than the period rates of 1.5 in many “low‐fertility” countries, averaging about 1.8 children. Our forecasts suggest that the long‐term decline in cohort fertility is flattening or reversing in many world regions previously characterized by low fertility. We document the marked increase of cohort fertility in the English‐speaking world and in Scandinavia; signs of an upward reversal in many low‐fertility countries, including Japan and Germany; and continued declines in countries such as Taiwan and Portugal. We include in our forecasts estimates of statistical uncertainty and the possible effects of the recent economic recession.     

A New Approach to the Group Ranking Problem: Finding Consensus Ordered Segments from Users’ Preference Data

The group ranking problem involves constructing coherent aggregated results from users’ preference data. The goal of most group ranking problems is to generate an ordered list of all items that represents the user consensus. There are, however, two weaknesses to this approach. First, a complete list of ranked items is always output even when there is no consensus or only a slight consensus. Second, due to similarity of performance, in many practical situations, it is very difficult to differentiate whether one item is really better than another within a set. These weaknesses have motivated us to apply the clustering concept to the group ranking problem, to output an ordered list of segments containing a set of similarly preferred items, called consensus ordered segments. The advantages of our approach are that (i) the list of segments is based on the users’ consensuses, (ii) the items with similar preferences are grouped together in the same segment, and (iii) the relationships between items can be easily seen. An algorithm is developed to construct the consensus of the ordered segments from the users’ total ranking data. Finally, the experimental results indicate that the proposed method is computationally efficient, and can effectively identify consensus ordered segments.     

国外社会管理的有益经验

国外现代社会管理的主要经验可以归纳为“六个社,六个管”,即:以“调理社会结构、提供社会保障、发展社会组织、帮扶社区发展、管好社会特殊群体、保护社会安全”为主要抓手,通过分配和社会保障从基础上管,通过社会组织“曲”管,通过法律有规矩地管,通过协商机制商量着管,通过文化团结日常化地管和通过有效的社会治安以及危机处理明智地管.在借鉴上述经验推进我国社会管理创新的过程中,应当把总结推广我国社会管理成功经验和借鉴国外社会管理有益成果结合起来,努力转向以社会规制为特征的社会管理体系,并尽快实现社会管理的集成创新.     

存在之思中的艺术是什么--海德格尔艺术作品本源论之启示

追问存在既是海德格尔思之起点,又是海德格尔思之主题.海德格尔后期科技、语言、艺术之思皆是围绕其存在之思所展开的.在海德格尔存在之思中,艺术作品的本源就是使艺术作品是其所是以及如何是的那种东西,即艺术本身.探讨艺术本身是什么?须摈弃传统艺术理论遗忘了存在,专注于具体存在者,把具体物性因素当作艺术的本源的思路.同时也须摈弃从认识论出发,把艺术作品当作一种对象性存在,认为艺术的本质或在对现实生活的模仿,或在艺术家的主观表现的思路.