两种稀见清诗总集考辨

清诗总集为数繁多.研究薄弱,许多原书需要认真考察.浙江图书馆藏唯一传世的一部清初"职业"选家顾有孝辑《纪事诗钞》,实际上是一个残本.全书十卷,后两卷单独题为"骊珠集",所选诗歌体裁亦与前八卷不同.经比对可知,后两卷乃抄自顾有孝另一种清诗总集《骊珠集》.又该馆所藏一部挂在顾有孝名下的同名《骊珠集》,除了书名以外,其他版刻形式、所收作家和作品等均与顾有孝辑《骊珠集》完全不同.则实际是他人所辑的另一种清诗总集,属于道家文学典籍的范畴,并且同样也是海内孤本.此前还没有学者对这两种清诗总集予以研究.对它们进行考辨,既有助于学术界获得正确的认识,又是文献典籍方面的一次全新发现.     

Are Rich Earners Time-Privileged in Taiwan? The Evidence from 1981 to 2006

This paper investigates how the relationship between income and working hours in Taiwan has changed over time. By using the official individual sample in the Manpower Utilization Surveys from DGBAS during 1981–2006, this study concludes that higher earners worked fewer hours as the economy is expanding and the price level increases in Taiwan; however, higher earners lose their time privileges as the economy relies on the service sector more than before. Furthermore, with regard to gender differences, it is found that higher earners still have time advantages relative to lower earners over time for male, but not so for female.

A probabilistic transmission and population dynamic model to assess tuberculosis infection risk

The purpose of this study was to examine tuberculosis (TB) population dynamics and to assess potential infection risk in Taiwan. A well‐established mathematical model of TB transmission built on previous models was adopted to study the potential impact of TB transmission. A probabilistic risk model was also developed to estimate site‐specific risks of developing disease soon after recent primary infection, exogenous reinfection, or through endogenous reactivation (latently infected TB) among Taiwan regions. Here, we showed that the proportion of endogenous reactivation (53–67%) was larger than that of exogenous reinfection (32–47%). Our simulations showed that as epidemic reaches a steady state, age distribution of cases would finally shift toward older age groups dominated by latently infected TB cases as a result of endogenous reactivation. A comparison of age‐weighted TB incidence data with our model simulation output with 95% credible intervals revealed that the predictions were in an apparent agreement with observed data. The median value of overall basic reproduction number (R₀) in eastern Taiwan ranged from 1.65 to 1.72, whereas northern Taiwan had the lowest R₀ estimate of 1.50. We found that total TB incidences in eastern Taiwan had 25–27% probabilities of total proportion of infected population exceeding 90%, whereas there were 36–66% probabilities having exceeded 20% of total proportion of infected population attributed to latently infected TB. We suggested that our Taiwan‐based analysis can be extended to the context of developing countries, where TB remains a substantial cause of elderly morbidity and mortality.     

Scheduling to minimize stringer utilization for continuous annealing operations

In this paper we present a mathematical program and heuristic algorithms to schedule coils for the production operations in a copper (or steel) coil manufacturing industry. The processing facility uses continuous operations for processing (e.g., galvanizing and annealing) while the handling unit is a discrete coil. The ends of coils are “stitched” or welded together to enable continuous processing, and the joint is later sheared off to obtain the processed coils. Processing constraints impose restrictions on the compatibility between a pair of coils that are overcome by introducing a dummy coil called stringer, which is very expensive to a mill. This paper deals with modeling the sequencing/scheduling problem of coils on parallel non-identical machines to minimize stringer utilization. Both computational and practical experiences show the efficiency and effectiveness of the solution approaches. Implementing these methods in an actual coil annealing facility resulted in 65% reduction in stringer utilization.     

不确定性规避、工作负担与领导授权行为:控制愿望与管理层级的调节作用

本研究通过问卷调查的方法,探讨了不确定性规避价值观及工作负担对领导授权行为的影响.在此基础上,本研究还进一步探讨了控制愿望与管理层级的调节作用.统计分析的结果表明:(1)不确定性规避与领导授权行为显著负相关,工作负担与领导授权行为显著正相关.(2)控制愿望显著调节不确定性规避对领导授权行为的影响.(3)职位层级分别调节不确定性规避、工作负担与领导授权行为的关系.     

团队成员交换、社会因素策略与新员工社会化

团队工作方式在组织中日益普遍,团队成员成为影响新员工社会化的重要因素。探讨团队成员交换对新员工社会化结果的影响及其作用机制,尤其是社会因素策略这一组织社会化策略在其中的中介作用,选取201个入职时间在一年半以内的销售人员为调查样本,运用结构方程模型路径分析方法对研究模型进行检验。研究结果表明,团队成员交换对新员工社会化结果产生显著影响;新员工感知的社会因素策略在团队成员交换与任务掌握、角色清晰、工作满意度之间起部分中介作用,在团队成员交换与离职倾向之间起完全中介作用。这表明高质量的团队成员交换关系可以促进新员工感知更多来自组织的正向社会支持以及组织内部人的角色模范作用,最终帮助他们成功社会化。     

Clickstream Data and Inventory Management: Model and Empirical Analysis

We consider firms that feature their products on the Internet but take orders offline. Click and order data are disjoint on such non‐transactional websites, and their matching is error‐prone. Yet, their time separation may allow the firm to react and improve its tactical planning. We introduce a dynamic decision support model that augments the classic inventory planning model with additional clickstream state variables. Using a novel data set of matched online clickstream and offline purchasing data, we identify statistically significant clickstream variables and empirically investigate the value of clickstream tracking on non‐transactional websites to improve inventory management. We show that the noisy clickstream data is statistically significant to predict the propensity, amount, and timing of offline orders. A counterfactual analysis shows that using the demand information extracted from the clickstream data can reduce the inventory holding and backordering cost by 3% to 5% in our data set.     

1980年代以来北京市城市化过程中人口分布的变化

20世纪80年代以来,北京城市化步伐加快。人口分布变化的特点是从居住地看,城市中心区人口减少、人口分布趋向于均等化;外围区人口迅速增长、地域人口密度差别很大;郊区人口缓慢增长。人口分布向单极集中。从工作地看,从业人口继续向城区,特别是市中心区集中,但城区第二产业从业人员减少,第三产业人员增加,且比例在提高。由昼夜人口算得,中心区的昼夜人口比提高,外围区的昼夜人口比减少。以上变化说明,北京在城市发展过程中,在城市地域扩大的同时,中心区的中心地功能也在加强,各地域的功能定位进一步明晰。     

中国城市经济效率测度研究

文章选取固定资产投资总额、劳动力作为投入变量,地区生产总值、地方财政预算内收入、职工工资总额作为产出变量,运用DEA分析法对中国城市经济效率进行了研究。研究发现,城市的纯技术效率、规模效率与城市所处的地理位置无关。城市规模效率与城市人口呈正相关关系,增加城市规模能够提高城市效率。中国近年来技术进步和技术效率呈轻微下降趋势,城市规模效率呈低速增长。技术进步和全要素生产率较高的城市以东部地区城市为主。在城市经济发展过程中应注意优化资源配置,加快技术进步。     

Population reproduction and migration in Yugoslavia since World War 2]

Yugoslavia is composed of 6 formerly independent countries. Therefore, the economic development and population growth rates are quite different in different areas. The population growth rate varies from .31% in developed areas to 1.37% in mid-developed areas to 2.78% in underdeveloped areas. In developed areas there are large urban populations and more women with higher education and social involvement. The mortality rate in Yugoslavia has been markedly reduced in the last few decades because of the improvement of their health care system. This is especially obvious in mid- and underdeveloped areas. The mortality rate has increased in developed areas because of the increase in traffic accidents, smoking, drinking, and suicides. Yugoslavia is a multiracial country, and the population growth rate differs among the different races. The nationwide family planning program in Yugoslavia is run on a voluntary basis, and they do not have a unified population policy because of their complicated racial and economic situation. After World War 2 a large portion of the population migrated from the country to the cities because of the mechanization of agriculture. The higher living standard in developed areas also attracted people to migrate from mid- and underdeveloped areas. Yugoslavia has a tradition of emigration--a .1 to .2% annual emigration rate. The government encouraged their people to find jobs abroad in the mid 1960's.