Specification and testing of multiplicative time-varying GARCH models with applications

In this article, we develop a specification technique for building multiplicative time-varying GARCH models of Amado and Teräsvirta (2008, 2013). The variance is decomposed into an unconditional and a conditional component such that the unconditional variance component is allowed to evolve smoothly over time. This nonstationary component is defined as a linear combination of logistic transition functions with time as the transition variable. The appropriate number of transition functions is determined by a sequence of specification tests. For that purpose, a coherent modelling strategy based on statistical inference is presented. It is heavily dependent on Lagrange multiplier type misspecification tests. The tests are easily implemented as they are entirely based on auxiliary regressions. Finite-sample properties of the strategy and tests are examined by simulation. The modelling strategy is illustrated in practice with two real examples: an empirical application to daily exchange rate returns and another one to daily coffee futures returns.     

Analysis of Deviance for Hypothesis Testing in Generalized Partially Linear Models

In this study, we develop nonparametric analysis of deviance tools for generalized partially linear models based on local polynomial fitting. Assuming a canonical link, we propose expressions for both local and global analysis of deviance, which admit an additivity property that reduces to analysis of variance decompositions in the Gaussian case. Chi-square tests based on integrated likelihood functions are proposed to formally test whether the nonparametric term is significant. Simulation results are shown to illustrate the proposed chi-square tests and to compare them with an existing procedure based on penalized splines. The methodology is applied to German Bundesbank Federal Reserve data.     

An Extended Single‐index Model with Missing Response at Random

An extended single‐index model is considered when responses are missing at random. A three‐step estimation procedure is developed to define an estimator for the single‐index parameter vector by a joint estimating equation. The proposed estimator is shown to be asymptotically normal. An algorithm for computing this estimator is proposed. This algorithm only involves one‐dimensional nonparametric smoothers, thereby avoiding the data sparsity problem caused by high model dimensionality. Some simulation studies are conducted to investigate the finite sample performances of the proposed estimators.     

Education and Poststroke Separation Among Couples With Mutual Children

The objective of this study based on Swedish registers is to examine the influence of socioeconomic position on poststroke divorce and separation using education as a marker. People aged 18 to 64 who suffered a first stroke between 1992 and 2005 were included if they were married or cohabiting and had mutual children. The material included 42,026 first stroke cases and 424,281 nonexposed persons, both populations divided into three different educational groups. Results show that the risk of separation is much higher in the incident year and in the first poststroke year, above all among people with only compulsory (elementary) education.     

Ecosocial change and community resilience: The case of “Bönan” in glocal transition

ABSTRACT

The aim of this article was to identify and discuss ecosocial changes and community resilience mechanisms in a coastal fishing community of Sweden – Bönan. Data were collected through eight semi-structured interviews and field observations. An abductive thematic analysis was used to analyze data and background literature. The findings showed that Bönan has been exposed to a combination of ecosocial changes that have transformed the community, and therefore required community resilience interventions. This article concludes that social workers need to take an active part in ecosocial work for enhancing community resilience.     

Visual Attention to Dynamic Spatial Relations in Infants and Adults

Previous research has found that kinematic features of interactions, such as spatial proximity, capture adult visual attention. The current research uses online measures of gaze behavior to determine attentional capture to objects with reduced interobject spacing in adults as well as infants at 5 and 12 months. The three age groups observed three identical geometrical shapes that moved randomly. Relative distance between the objects was mapped and intervals of high and low spatial proximity were identified. Findings demonstrate that only adults and 12‐month‐olds look significantly more at the objects that are close during instances of high spatial proximity, while 5‐month‐olds look at chance. The findings speak for a developmental trend in oculomotor processes, where a bias to look at objects with high spatial proximity develops within the first year of life.     

Rationality,fairness and the cost of distrust

An adapted version of “the trust game with revenge” is applied to a Swedish setting. Senders – the first-movers – can keep an endowment of SEK 30, or give fractions or all to an unknown receiver. Donations are multiplied by five before reaching receivers, who may, or may not, send back part or the entire received amount. Half of the receivers are given information that the sender has the opportunity to exact revenge, while the remaining are not given this information. Results differ from Fehr and Gächter (2000), in the sense that the share of endowments sent in the first stage is around two thirds, compared to less than one third in Fehr and Gächter. Furthermore, they find a very strong effect of punishment while we find almost no effect. An efficiency frontier is defined and results show that that only 25% of the outcomes reach this frontier due to lack of trust. If senders were confident that receivers would return at least 20% of the donated amount, it is optimal to donate the whole endowment. Only about one-fifth returned of the receivers returned less than this, so for the most part the lack of trust is unwarranted.     

Entry into Consensual Unions and Marriages Among Finnish Women Born Between 1938 and 1967

This study, based on a survey undertaken in 1989, clearly illustrates the dramatic changes in family formation behaviour that have occurred in Finland. Whereas only about one-tenth of the first unions of women born between 1938 and 1942 began as consensual unions, after the cohort of 1962 only one-tenth were formal marriages. These changes lagged some ten years behind the corresponding ones in Sweden, but were about five years ahead of Norway. In Finland, up to the present, most consensual unions have constituted a temporary state which precedes proper family life. Most couples married in connection with the birth of the first child. Consensual union as a permanent lifestyle is generally connected with a low level of education of women.     

Parental age and offspring mortality: Negative effects of reproductive ageing may be counterbalanced by secular increases in longevity

As parental ages at birth continue to rise, concerns about the effects of fertility postponement on offspring are increasing. Due to reproductive ageing, advanced parental ages have been associated with negative health outcomes for offspring, including decreased longevity. The literature, however, has neglected to examine the potential benefits of being born at a later date. Secular declines in mortality mean that later birth cohorts are living longer. We analyse mortality over ages 30–74 among 1.9 million Swedish men and women born 1938–60, and use a sibling comparison design that accounts for all time-invariant factors shared by the siblings. When incorporating cohort improvements in mortality, we find that those born to older mothers do not suffer any significant mortality disadvantage, and that those born to older fathers have lower mortality. These findings are likely to be explained by secular declines in mortality counterbalancing the negative effects of reproductive ageing.     

Erzählung und „Bewältigung“

The topic of this paper is the change of perspective from the concept of “coping with illness” in a psychological sense to a concept of coping as “living with (chronic) illness” in a sociological sense. Whereas psychological and even some sociological research presupposes assumptions on causes and essentials of stress as well as on successful coping, we focused on the different ways, in which subjects define strain and their personal aim of coping. These subjective views might differ from the definitions of scientists as well. Furthermore we focus on the social constructions of illness and “normal living” and the social rules of coping with daily hassles, which underlay the subjective views. Assuming that the ways chronically ill resp. disabled persons look at stress and daily hassles is part of their coping, we conclude that stress and coping are mutually constituting each other. This dialectic process is influenced by the persons current situation, by the individual’s history and by cultural rules concerning appropriate coping resp. living with strain in general. Looking at these social rules and how they are modified under the conditions of illness and handicap was the topic of our research project “LIVE—Living and Defending Your Interests—Disabled Women”, financed by the German Fed. Ministry for Family, Seniors, Women and Youth and conducted 1996–1998. In this study a questionnaire was sent to 16 to 60 years old disabled women (return: N=987). Additionally a qualitative interview was conducted with N=60 of them. From a biographical approach the reconstruction of the main subjective patterns in their life histories led us to the social rules of appropriate “coping”. We can take this as a starting point for a sociological discussion of everyday living with chronic illness, that focuses on the social constitution of subjective meanings of stress resp. coping with illness, includes the social context and allows to integrate the gender perspective.