A comparative study for robust canonical correlation methods

The aim of this study is to obtain robust canonical vectors and correlation coefficients based on the percentage bend correlation and winsorized correlation in the correlation matrix and fast consistent high breakdown (FCH), reweighted fast consistent high breakdown (RFCH), and reweighted multivariate normal (RMVN) estimators to estimate the covariance matrix and then compare these estimators with the existing estimators. In the correlation matrix of canonical correlation analysis (CCA), we present an approach that substitutes the percentage bend correlation and the winsorized correlation in place of the widely employed the Pearson correlation. Moreover, we employ the FCH, RFCH, and RMVN estimators to estimate the covariance matrix in the CCA. We conduct a simulation study and employ real data with the objective of comparing the performance of the different estimators for canonical vectors and correlation with that of our proposed approaches. The breakdown plots and independent tests are employed as differentiating criteria of the robustness and performance of the estimators. Based on our computational and real data studies, we propose suggestions and guidelines on the practical implications of our findings.     

Estimation of P(X>Y) with Topp–Leone distribution

We consider the estimation problem of the probability P=P(X>Y) for the standard Topp–Leone distribution. After discussing the maximum likelihood and uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimation procedures for the problem on both complete and left censored samples, we perform a Monte Carlo simulation to compare the estimators based on the mean square error criteria. We also consider the interval estimation of P.     

Zero Lower Bound and negative interest rates: Choices for monetary policy in the UK

There have been relatively few analyses of the policy context and consequences of a Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) for nominal interest rates. This paper sets out monetary policy alternatives, including negative interest rates, a revision of the inflation target, and rendering unconventional policy instruments such as QE conventional (permanent). Following extensive discussion of policy options, we set out a model that explores the impacts of the real policy rate on economic growth, employment and inflation, with particular attention to the British economy. We use a Time-Varying Structural Vector Auto-regressive (TVSVAR) Model where the sources of time variation are both the coefficients and variance–covariance matrix of the innovations. It was found that real rates have significant implications for real growth, the labour market and price stability even when monetary policy was constrained at the ZLB in nominal terms. The study additionally applies a discrete break in the data to focus on the Post-Global Financial Crisis and ZLB period. This indicates that the effectiveness of real rates did not diminish and this has important implications in terms of a policy approach which seeks to exploit real negative rates.     

Sectarian terrorism in Pakistan: Causes,impact and remedies

Although terrorism has been widely studied for its impact and potential determinants in Pakistan, the answer to the policy question regarding the role of external factors in influencing specifically the sectarian terrorism is not empirically well researched. The study, particularly, analyses the role of Pakistan’s regional foreign policy towards neighbouring India, Afghan wars, and the relations with bi-polar fundamental Muslim Block, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Iran, on sectarian (religious) terrorist incidents for the period 1973–2017. The findings suggest that economic cooperation with India which drive peace-making relations increases the sectarian terrorism. Both the bilateral loans disbursed by the KSA and trade relations with Iran, significantly increase the chances of sectarian terrorism in Pakistan by activating extremist (proxy) groups. However, the Afghan Wars that call for Pak-US strategic partnership helps Pakistan to control the religious terrorism.     

The cross-impact between financial markets,Covid-19 pandemic,and economic sanctions: The case of Iran

The main financial markets in the Iranian Economy include the stock exchange, foreign exchange, oil, and gold markets. The sharp fluctuations in these markets, especially those caused by the severe sanctions imposed on Iran in May 2018, and the pandemic outbreak of Covid-19 have led to more confusion and uncertainty among investors. One of the effective approaches to examine such unstable conditions is to study the co-movement(s) between markets to identify the leading variable(s). Thus, in the present study, Wavelet Coherence Analysis was applied to examine the co-movements between markets in a time period from September 2014 to June 2020, as an intense period of uncertainty in Iran. In other words, in this study, the markets were investigated in different sub-periods. Also, the Segmented Regression was performed to estimate the impact of sanctions and the Covid-19 pandemic on the co-movements of financial markets in Iran.The results showed that the oil price had a low co-movement with the other three markets, i.e. stock exchange, exchange rate, and gold markets. Thus, the oil market can be a suitable alternative for risk aversion investors. Meanwhile, the oil market could also act as a source of finance for the government during the sanctions period. That possibly explains the recent decision by the Iranian government to use the oil market to finance its budget deficit. Between the exchange rate and gold price, the gold price was identified as the leading variable. While the exchange rate and gold price did not show a significant co-movement in stable conditions, they did show a significant co-movement in unstable conditions, as in times of sanctions or during a global pandemic and thus influenced the investors’ portfolio risk. This result is important from a policy-making perspective. Based on this result, the policymakers can, especially during crises and unstable conditions, control the gold market and make it more stable by managing the foreign exchange market.     

Distributionally robust maximum probability shortest path problem

In this study, we discuss and develop a distributionally robust joint chance-constrained optimization model and apply it for the shortest path problem under resource uncertainty. In sch a case, robust chance constraints are approximated by constraints that can be reformulated using convex programming. Since the issue we are discussing here is of the multi-resource type, the resource related to cost is deterministic; however, we consider a robust set for other resources where covariance and mean are known. Thus, the chance-constrained problem can be expressed in terms of a cone constraint. In addition, since our problem is joint chance-constrained optimization, we can use Bonferroni approximation to divide the problem into L separate problems in order to build convex approximations of distributionally robust joint chance constraints. Finally, numerical results are presented to illustrate the rigidity of the bounds and the value of the distributionally robust approach.

     

Dwelling in epistemic disobedience: A reply to Go

In Thinking Against Empire: Anticolonial Thought as Social Theory, Julian Go continues his vital work on rethinking and redirecting the discipline of sociology. Go’s piece relates to his wider oeuvre of postcolonial sociology – found in works such as his Postcolonial Thought and Social Theory (2016) as well as multiple journal articles on epistemic exclusion (Go 2020), Southern theory (Go 2016), metrocentrism (Go 2014), and the history of sociology (Go 2009). In this response article, my aim is to think alongside some of the central themes outlined in Go’s paper rather than offering a rebuttal of any sorts. In particular, I want to think through how the recent work on ‘decoloniality’ may play more of a central role in Go’s vision of sociology and social theory than he acknowledges. In doing so, I hope to engage in Go’s prodigious scholarship through centering discussions of the geopolitics of knowledge, double translation, and border thinking. Before proceeding to this discussion, I will offer a brief review of my reading of Go’s paper.     

Vacation Leave,Work Hours,and Wages: New Evidence from Linked Employer–Employee Data

This paper provides new evidence on the determinants of vacation leave and its relationship to hours worked and hourly wages by examining the case of Canada. Previous studies from the USA, using individual‐level data, have revealed that annual work hours fall by around 53 hours for each additional week of vacation used. Exploiting a linked employer–employee dataset that allows to control for detailed observed demographic, job, and firm characteristics, we find instead that annual hours of work fall by only 29 hours for each additional week of vacation used. Our findings support the hypothesis that pressure at work may lead employees to use more vacation days but also causes them to work for longer hours.     

The willingness to emigrate in six MENA countries: The role of post-revolutionary stress

This paper studies the determinants of emigration from six Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries in light of the Arab Spring of 2011. The aim is to determine if the economically unfortunate events which occurred as a result of the Arab Spring, resulted in a brain drain for many countries. The paper's analysis is conducted using the Arab Transformation Project dataset of the year 2014 by employing an ordered probit model. The paper's main conclusion is that sentiments of unhappiness appear to be the primary determinant of the willingness to emigrate. Other post-revolutionary feelings include lack of trust and political and democratic discontent, which highly encourage the willingness to emigrate. In addition, socio-economic factors, such as being young, male, and highly educated, contribute to the willingness to emigrate. However, married individuals are less likely to consider emigration.     

Call for Proposals: Lessons Learned,Opportunities Developed: Building Governance and Administrative Capacities for the Post-Pandemic Era

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