An evaluation of population projections by age

A number of studies have evaluated the accuracy of projections of the size of the total population, but few have considered the accuracy of projections by age group. For many purposes, however, the relevant variable is the population of a particular age group, rather than the population as a whole. We investigated the precision and bias of a variety of age-group projections at the national and state levels in the United States and for counties in Florida. We also compared the accuracy of state and county projections that were derived from full-blown applications of the cohort-component method with the accuracy of projections that were derived from a simpler, less data-intensive version of the method. We found that age-group error patterns are different for national projections than for subnational projections; that errors are substantially larger for some age groups than for others; that differences in errors among age groups decline as the projection horizon becomes longer; and that differences in methodological complexity have no consistent impact on the precision and bias of age-group projections.     

Do unintended pregnancies carried to term lead to adverse outcomes for mother and child? An assessment in five developing countries

This paper investigates whether children later reported as having been unwanted or mistimed at conception will, when compared with children reported as wanted, show adverse effects when the following criteria are applied: receipt of antenatal care before the sixth month of gestation, supervised delivery, full vaccination of the child, and child growth (stunting). The study uses data from five recent Demographic and Health Survey enquiries in Bolivia, Egypt, Kenya, Peru, and the Philippines. In Peru, children unwanted at conception were found to have significantly worse outcomes than other children, but in the other countries, a systematic effect was found only for receipt of antenatal care. Weak measurement of the complex concept of wantedness may have contributed to these results. Birth order of the child, with which wantedness is inextricably linked, has more powerful and pervasive effects, with first-born and second-born children being much less likely to show adverse effects.     

Misgivings of medicine?: African Americans' skepticism of psychiatric medication

Research has consistently documented black-white differences in rates of voluntary psychiatric treatment that cannot be reduced entirely to differences in either need or access. A variety of explanations have been offered for the gap that remains, but the empirical testing of alternative propositions has thus far been minimal. Using the 1998 General Social Survey's Pressing Issues in Health and Medical Care module (n = 1,387), I find consistent and substantial black-white differences in a variety of beliefs about psychiatric medications, one of the most common treatments for mental illness, and the predisposition to use them. Specifically, blacks express less willingness to use psychiatric medications themselves or to administer them to a child for whom they are responsible. Neither socioeconomic status, knowledge, religious involvement, nor trust in medicine appears to explain this reluctance. Rather, it stems almost entirely from blacks' beliefs about psychiatric medications' efficacy and side-effects. The results indicate, first, that researchers should not assume that African Americans will use psychiatric medications at rates similar to whites if offered equal access. Second, the results indicate that blacks' skepticism of psychiatric medications may be rooted in specific beliefs about psychiatric medications, rather than general ideologies about medical practice. Health beliefs about psychiatric treatment, therefore, will continue to play an important role in understanding race differences in the use of psychiatric medications.     

History, causality, and sexology

In 1896, Krafft-Ebing published Psychopathia Sexualis. Popularly defined as hereditary weakness or taintedness in the family pedigree, degeneracy was called upon as a causal explanation for perversions of the sexual instinct. Although Krafft-Ebing accepted Karl Ulrichs proposal that homosexuality could be innate and probably located in the brain, he paid little attention to neuropathological sexology. Alfred Binet challenged Krafft-Ebing's orthodoxy by explaining fetishism in terms of associative learning, to which Krafft-Ebing's response was that only those with a hereditary taint would be vulnerable. Thus did the venerable nature-nurture antithesis maintain its rhetoric, even to the present day. Krafft-Ebing died too soon to meet the Freudian challenge of endopsychic determinism, and too soon also to encounter the idea of a developmental multivariate outcome of what I have termed the lovemap. Like other brain maps, for example the languagemap, the lovemap requires an intact human brain in which to develop. The personalized content of the lovemap has access to the brain by way of the special senses.     

Illinois's child welfare research agenda: an approach to building consensus for practice-based research

This article presents a consensus-building initiative to develop a statewide research agenda that responds to the needs of Illinois's child welfare community. Researchers conducted this process through a university-community partnership to engage those interested in child welfare services. The process and findings resulted in a living document that will guide child welfare research throughout the state. Findings of the inquiry suggest that the development of best practice models may be one of the most important contributions research can make to practice.     

The influence of caregiving stressors, social support, and caregiving appraisal on marital functioning among African American wife caregivers

Using a stress and coping framework, we examined the influence of caregiving stressors, social support, and caregiving appraisal on the marital functioning of 100 African American wife caregivers. Results of separate multivariate analyses revealed received church support, caregiving burden, and caregiving satisfaction significantly predicted wives' marital functioning, when caregivers' background characteristics (age and education), length of caregiving, whether first marriage, and urban versus rural location were controlled. Receiving church support was associated with increased marital functioning. Lower levels of caregiving burden were associated with increased marital functioning. Higher levels of caregiving satisfaction were associated with increased marital functioning. Findings illuminate wives' caregiving and marital experiences, and have implications for family therapy and future research.     

Cultural perspectives of death,grief, and bereavement

The cultural makeup of the United States continues to change rapidly, and as minority groups continue to grow, these groups' beliefs and customs must be taken into account when examining death, grief, and bereavement. This article discusses the beliefs, customs, and rituals of Latino, African American, Navajo, Jewish, and Hindu groups to raise awareness of the differences health care professionals may encounter among their grieving clients. Discussion of this small sample of minority groups in the United States is not intended to cover all of the degrees of acculturation within each group. Cultural groups are not homogeneous, and individual variation must always be considered in situations of death, grief, and bereavement. However, because the customs, rituals, and beliefs of the groups to which they belong affect individuals' experiences of death, grief, and bereavement, health care professionals need to be open to learning about them to better understand and help.