The four-parameter logit life table system

Summary Brass's model life table system, which is a two parameter system based on the logit transformation of survivorship values, has been widely and successfully used to describe age patterns of mortality in many populations. As more reliable information has become available for populations with mortality patterns which differ in important ways from the assumed standard pattern of mortality, a more flexible model system is needed. This paper shows how Brass's system can be expanded into a four-parameter model, and evaluates the performance of the new system by examining how well it can fit observed life table data.     

Frustrated fertility: a population paradox

This Bulletin examines the causes of subfecundity -- the diminished ability to reproduce -- and its effect today and in the past on the fertility, or actual reproductive performance, of individuals and, hence, populations. By definition, all real populations are subfecund since all experience some degree of involuntary biological factors affecting coitus, conception, or the ability to carry a conceptus to live birth which reduces their fecundity below the estimated biological population maximum of 15 children per woman. Affecting both men and women, these factors fall into 5 categories: genetic factors such as blood group incompatibilities and inherited sickle cell anemia or diabetes; psychopathology, including psychic stress and behavioral disorders (e.g., drug and alcohol abuse); infectious diseases such as gonorrhea, malaria, tuberculosis, and postabortion infection; malnutrrition, including the chronic undernutrition of the 3rd World and the overnutrition of developed societies; and hazards posed by increasing amounts of radiation and toxic chemicals in the environment. Reducing subfecundity requires improved living conditions, avoidance of or protection from known hazards, and adoption of medical advances which now can help 40 to 60% of subfecund couples. But even in the U.S. fertility would certainly rise among the 15% of couples now estimated to be involuntarily childless and the 10% who have fewer children than they want, and among disadvantaged groups, and teenagers.     

通过谈判争取成功砝码

回想你上次面临新的领导机遇时,出现了什么情况？不管你是受命领导团队、部门还是整个企业,你很可能通过谈判争取该职位的薪水和待遇,比如：头衔、假期及奖金,但你是否争取过在该职位上取得成功的条件呢?     

1991年诺贝尔经济学奖得主的理论贡献

学术贡献 科斯由于“发现和澄清了交易费用和产权对经济制度结构和运行的意义”而荣获诺贝尔经济学奖。科斯对于经济学的主要学术贡献包括三个方面:一是他提出了交易费用概念的雏形,并把交易费用引入经济学的分析框架之中;二是强调了交易费用、产权与经济效率的关系,构筑了产权理论的框架;三是以“科斯定理”为核心开创性地将经济理论应用到法学问题上,形成了一门新的经济学分支—法律经济学。 科斯认为市场运行是有成本的,且主要是“发现相对价格”的成本。为了进行市场交易,有必要发现准希望进行交易,有必要告诉人们交易的     

集体记忆与民族认同——以新疆青河县哈萨克族克烈部分支阿巴克克烈部落为例

基于集体记忆所形成的共同祖先观念是强化民族认同的重要因素之一,它象征着族群社会结构的永久连续性。通过共同祖先意识把民族不同支派成员连接在一起,促使成员对本民族产生归属感和凝聚感,并借此不断强化民族认同,使其社会得以延续。本文以新疆青河县哈萨克族阿巴克克烈部落成员的集体记忆为例,结合相关文史资料,从共同祖先追溯、氏族部落社会组织传承记忆等视角探讨了哈萨克族基于集体记忆的社会延续与民族认同之关系。     

Physiological Responses to Near-Miss Outcomes and Personal Control During Simulated Gambling

Near-miss outcomes during gambling are non-win outcomes that fall close to a pay-out. While objectively equivalent to an outright miss, near-misses motivate ongoing play and may therefore be implicated in the development of disordered gambling. Given naturalistic data showing increases in heart rate (HR) and electrodermal activity (EDA) during periods of real gambling play, we sought to explore the phasic impact of win, near-miss and full-miss outcomes on physiological arousal in a controlled laboratory environment. EDA and HR were monitored as healthy, student participants (n = 33) played a simulated slot-machine task involving unpredictable monetary wins. A second gambling distortion, perceived personal control, was manipulated within the same task by allowing the participant to select the play icon on some trials, and having the computer automatically select the play icon on other trials. Near-misses were rated as less pleasant than full-misses. However, on trials that involved personal choice, near-misses produced higher ratings of ‘continue to play’ than full-misses. Winning outcomes were associated with phasic EDA responses that did not vary with personal choice. Compared to full-misses, near-miss outcomes also elicited an EDA increase, which was greater on personal choice trials. Near-misses were also associated with greater HR acceleration than other outcomes. Near-miss outcomes are capable of eliciting phasic changes in physiological arousal consistent with a state of subjective excitement, despite their objective non-win status.