Polls in the Media: Content, Credibility, and Consequences

Polls appearing in the New York Times and on the CBS and NBCevening news programs for three years are categorized, theirtreatment by the media dissected, and their possible politicalimplications analyzed.     

FLUCTUATING EXCHANGE RATES AND THE PRICING OF EXPORTS

The purpose of this paper is to examine the invoicing decision of an exporter under a system of pegged exchange rates and a system of freely fluctuating rates. With pegged exchange rates, the exporter may equivalently invoice in its home currency or in the currency of its foreign clients, since the two prices are related by the pegged rate. With fluctuating rates, however, the choice of an invoicing strategy is important and will affect the level of trade. The optimal prices with each strategy are compared, and the exporter's responses to governmental policy instruments are characterized.     

Martial Law and Military Power in the Construction of the South African State: Jan Smuts and the "Solid Guarantee of Force" 1899–1924

This paper seeks to provide a new approach to analysing the crucial period of the building of the South African state between the Boer War and 1924. Drawing on the sociology of Michael Mann, it argues that the construction of networks of military power was of central and partly autonomous importance in giving shape to the new state. It goes on to contend that this generated a legal order which was in many ways shaped by practices which derived from martial law. The paper also asserts that these questions of military power and martial law need to be analysed within a framework which does not limit itself to the boundaries of the South African state itself, but is placed within the wider context of the British Empire and the southern African region. A biographical exploration the role of Jan Smuts as the key leader is used to focus the paper's study of this process of state-making.     

THE HABIT OF GIVING

Many charitable organizations believe it is worthwhile to solicit very small donations, particularly from young people, because these gifts form a habit of giving which leads to larger donations in the future. Indeed, there is some evidence of a positive correlation between giving when young and giving when old. However, such a correlation, by itself, does not constitute evidence of habit formation. Using data on alumni contributions to a university, we assess whether the correlation is due to habit formation—true state dependence—or to unobservable factors such as affinity to the school. We further examine whether habits form by the mere act of giving or based on the amount given. We implement an instrumental variables approach using the fact that performance of the school's athletic teams and solicitation by one's former roommates generate shocks to giving while young that are plausibly uncorrelated with giving when older. There is strong evidence of habit formation on the extensive margin, but not in the amount given. This finding has important implications for fundraising strategies, charities' accounting practices, and tax policy. (JEL D64, D91, D12)