A flexible marginal modelling strategy for non-monotone missing data

Summary.  Much research has been devoted to modelling strategies for longitudinal data with missingness, recently especially within the missingness not at random context. In this paper, the relatively unexplored but practically highly relevant domain of non-monotone missingness with multivariate ordinal responses is broached. For this, a dedicated version of the multivariate Dale model is formulated. Furthermore, we also assess the sensitivity of these models to their assumptions, by using the technique of global influence.     

Kulturelle Muster des Altersübergangs: Der Einfluss kultureller Normen und Werte auf die Erwerbsbeteiligung älterer Menschen in Europa

The article examines the impact of culturally influenced norms and cultural values towards the ideal arrangement due to the transition to retirement on the labor market participation of older people aged 55 to 64 in Europe. Subsequent to a basic definition of retirement cultures, an extended explanatory model for the transition to retirement is developed, which takes cultural norms and values or rather the country-specific-retirement culture explicitly into account. Secondly, the model is empirically validated. The underlying dataset is the third round of the European Social Survey (ESS) which was conducted in 2006. Overall it is found that the impact of societal norms and values on the participation decision of older individuals can be both, theoretically modeled and empirically verified. Within the explanatory model the importance of cultural norms and values for explaining the retirement decisions of older people is twofold. Firstly, like the nation-specific institutional framework of the transition to retirement as well as the material resources of the individuals, this specific transition-to-retirement-culture belongs to the conditional part of the model and limits the number of alternative courses of action. Secondly, as an internalized social norm, the transition-to-retirement-culture is an integral part of the definition of the situation and structures the preference order of the individuals. The theoretical influence can also be validated in the empirical model. Firstly, there is a highly significant (positive) correlation between the attitudes towards the ideal retirement transition on the one hand and the participation decision on the individual level. On the societal level, a significant correlation between the country-specific transition-to-retirement-culture and the employment rate of older people can be seen. In this context, a low labor market participation of older people goes along with a comparatively exit-oriented transition-to-retirement-culture and vice versa.     

Designer nations: Neo-liberal nation branding – Brand Estonia

This article critically examines the emergence of nation branding as a commercial practice at the end of the Cold War by conceptualizing it as a means for nations to redefine and reposition themselves within the master narrative of globalization. It examines the industry literature of the nation branding movement, which seeks to legitimate the practice. It argues that nation branding is an engine of neo-liberalism that explicitly embraces a reductive logic, which privileges market relations (market fundamentalism) in articulations of national identity; also contends that nation branding is a risky business that can backfire, since its success depends, in large part, on the intuitive knowledge of individual industry ‘creatives’. It maintains that the methodology of nation branding, qua methodology, is profoundly anti-democratic. It offers recommendations for making nation branding more transparent and accountable to democratic values, but also explores Umberto's concept of ‘semiotic guerrilla warfare’ as a possible strategy for disrupting nation branding and redirecting initiatives to rethink national identity in more democratic directions.     

The Scope for Fiscal Policy: A Case Study of Thailand

This article is concerned with the application of fiscal policy instruments in stabilisation policy. Theoretical and practical considerations suggest that the scope for fiscal policy may be limited, but analysis of the actual performance of Thailand shows that an active use has been made of it. Compared with advanced economies, the role of automatic stabilisers is relatively small; discretionary fiscal policy interventions have been more important. Particularly in the years after the Asian financial crisis fiscal policy has been actively used, first, under IMF programmes, to reduce aggregate demand, and later to stimulate the economy. The article focuses on the application of fiscal policy instruments, not on the impact of fiscal policy interventions on the real economy.     

THEORY-BASED MEASUREMENT OF THE SAVING-INVESTMENT CORRELATION WITH AN APPLICATION TO NORWAY

The work of Feldstein and Horioka has stimulated much research on the correlations of national savings and investment rates and their relation to the degree of international capital mobility. Theory implies a cointegrating relation between these variables, which suggests this correlation is measured best by an error correction model. This model includes all previous specifications as special cases, which we show are potentially misspeced on theoretical grounds. Applied to Norway, our model outperforms prevailing specifications. We detect structural breaks, and find the correlation's time profile is consistent with other indicators of capital mobility.     

Why is Housing Always Satisfactory? A Study into the Impact of Cognitive Restructuring and Future Perspectives on Housing Appreciation

The current study focuses on residents’ perceptions of residential quality. The influence of two psychological factors is examined: cognitive restructuring and future perspectives. For cognitive restructuring, it is hypothesized that residents who cannot change a suboptimal housing situation show higher appreciation scores in order to prevent unhappiness and psychosocial complaints. By contrast, the future perspectives hypothesis argues that residents who can change a suboptimal housing situation show higher appreciation scores because they have a better situation to look forward to. Respondents indicated their appreciation of 23 dwelling aspects on a scale ranging from 0 (extremely unattractive) to 100 (extremely attractive). A weak impact was found for cognitive restructuring: residents living in a suboptimal housing situation and who do not intend to move showed a higher mean appreciation for an owner-occupied house and for a traditional architectural design than similar residents who did intend to move. No effect was observed for future perspectives. Why is housing always satisfactory? A previous study and the current one show that residents who live in a suboptimal housing situation might show relatively high residential satisfaction because they lower their aspirations (“I don’t need much”), because they are satisfied with what they have (“what I have is fine”) and, to a lesser extent, because they make the best of a situation that they cannot change (cognitive restructuring).     

Multiscale local polynomial decompositions using bandwidths as scales

The multiscale local polynomial transform, developped in this paper, combines the benefits from local polynomial smoothing with sparse multiscale decompositions. The contribution of the paper is twofold. First, it focusses on the bandwidths used throughout the transform. These bandwidths operate as user controlled scales in a multiscale analysis, which is explained to be of particular interest in the case of nonequispaced data. The paper presents both a likelihood based optimal bandwidth selection and a fast, heuristic approach. The second contribution of the paper is the combination of local polynomial smoothing with orthogonal prefilters, similar to Daubechies’ wavelet filters, but defined on irregularly spaced covariate values.     

Interventions for families with multiple problems: Similar contents but divergent formats

For families with multiple problems (FMP), knowledge is lacking on the practice elements of interventions (the distinct techniques practitioners use to promote positive outcomes) and their program elements (intervention design and delivery systems). The aim of this study is to identify both common and specific practice and program elements so as to determine contents and overlap between interventions. For FMP, we selected interventions that had at least moderate (>0.5) effect sizes in the Dutch context (N = 8). A deductive content analysis was used to assess the manuals of these interventions with the taxonomy of interventions for FMP. We defined as common those elements found in at least five of the eight interventions and as specific those found in fewer than five. Of the practice elements, 79% were common across the interventions, and 21% were intervention specific. Interventions with the highest percentages of intervention‐specific elements derived from the taxonomy were 10 for the Future (15%), Family Central (14%), Intensive Family Therapy (14%), and Multisystemic therapy (11%). Core program elements: duration, intensity, intervision, supervision, and consultation, varied greatly between interventions. Among interventions for FMP, we found practice elements to have considerable overlap. Among program elements, we found greater variety.