Resampling schemes with low resampling intensity and their applications in testing hypotheses

The paper explores statistical features of different resampling schemes under low resampling intensity. The original sample is considered in a very general framework of triangular arrays, without independence or equally distributed assumptions, although improvements under such conditions are also provided. We show that low resampling schemes have very interesting and flexible properties, providing new insights into the performance of widely used resampling methods, including subsampling, two-sample unbalanced permutation statistics or wild bootstrap. It is shown that, under regularity assumptions, resampling tests with critical values derived by the appertaining low resampling procedures are asymptotically valid and there is no loss of power compared with the power function of an ideal (but unfeasible) parametric family of tests. Moreover we show that in several contexts, including regression models, they may act as a filter for the normal part of a limit distribution, turning down the influence of outliers.     

The choice among past trends as a basis for the prediction of future trends in old-age mortality

We explored the extent to which projections of future old-age mortality trends differ when different projection bases are used. For seven European countries, four alternative sets of annual rates of mortality change were estimated with age-period log-linear regression models, and subsequently applied to age-specific all-cause mortality rates (80+) in 1999 to predict mortality levels up to 2050. On average, up to 2050, e80 is predicted to increase further by 2.33 years among men and 4.03 years among women. Choosing a historical period of 25 instead of 50 years results in higher predicted gains in e80 for men but lower gains for women. Choosing non-smoking-related mortality instead of all-cause mortality leads to higher gains for women and mixed results for men. In all alternatives there is a strong divergence of predicted mortality levels between the countries. Future projections should be preceded by a thorough study of past trends and their determinants.     

Seeking control in the midst of uncertainty: Women’s experiences of choosing mode of birth after caesarean

Problem

Clinical practice guidelines indicate that over 80% of women with a previous caesarean should be offered a planned vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC), however only one third of eligible women choose to plan a VBAC. To support informed choices for birth after caesarean, it is necessary to understand the factors that influence women’s decision-making.

Intermarriage and the risk of divorce in the Netherlands: the effects of differences in religion and in nationality, 1974-94

A textbook hypothesis about divorce is that heterogamous marriages are more likely to end in divorce than homogamous marriages. We analyse vital statistics on the population of the Netherlands, which provide a unique and powerful opportunity to test this hypothesis. All marriages formed between 1974 and 1984 (nearly 1 million marriages) are traced in the divorce records and multivariate logistic regression models are used to analyse the effects on divorce of heterogamy in religion and national origin. Our analyses confirm the hypothesis for marriages that cross the Protestant-Catholic or the Jewish-Gentile boundary. Heterogamy effects are weaker for marriages involving Protestants or unaffiliated persons. Marriages between Dutch and other nationalities have a higher risk of divorce, the more so the greater the cultural differences between the two groups. Overall, the evidence supports the view that, in the Netherlands, new group boundaries are more difficult to cross than old group boundaries.     

The role of vertical conflict in the relationship between leader self-enhancement and leader performance

Although studies have shown that inflated self-perceptions of transformational leadership behavior negatively affect leader performance, insight into the underlying processes explaining this relationship is lacking. The current study addresses this gap by identifying vertical conflict between leaders and subordinates as one such underlying process. Using a sample of 52 leaders supervising 259 subordinates, it was found that leader self-enhancement of transformational leadership behavior is significantly and positively related to vertical conflict about both task and relationship issues. Results further indicate that vertical task conflict rather than vertical relationship conflict mediates the negative relationship between leader self-enhancement and leader performance.     

Can TV shows promote acceptance of sexual and ethnic minorities? A literature review of television effects on diversity attitudes

Until recently, western TV programming rarely featured sexual or ethnic minority members; if present, their representation was mostly negative. Increasingly, though, diverse characters start to play likeable protagonists as well. Thus, television can promote negative diversity attitudes and, at other times, positive ones. The present article reviews and connects theories and research from sociology, psychology, and media and communication studies to clarify the role of television in diversity attitudes formation and to identify directions for future research. Specifically, two research questions are addressed. First, through which processes does television influence diversity attitudes? Second, what features of TV shows contribute to positive diversity attitudes formation among viewers, according to different theories of television effects? Findings indicate that television can entrench existing negative diversity attitudes through the echo chamber phenomenon. However, TV content featuring numerous, likeable, attractive, and typical minority characters that have friendly interactions with the rest of society can promote positive diversity attitudes. Future research should study openness to view content with minority characters, examine the effects of the complete video media diets, check media effects in non-western countries, explore media effects in longitudinal studies and investigate what constitutes attractive, likeable, and typical representation of ethnic and sexual minorities.     

Karl Heinrich Ulrichs: First Theorist of Erotic Age Orientation

The nomination of Karl Heinrich Ulrichs (1825–1895) as the first theorist of homosexuality may be placed in the oblique light of his eligibility for the nomination as the first theorist of erotic age orientation. In Ulrichs’s pamphlets, “man-manly” homosexuality emerged as a particular age orientation, with a subsequent typological breakdown that, importantly, blended gender orientation and age orientation. Into the early 20th century, erotic age orientation remained bound up with the classification and emancipation of what here was demarcated as Urningsliebe. Ulrichs’s pioneering and shifting comments on age eventually fed into his legal model of consenting adults in private. They also provide a starting point for the historical understanding of the trope of “grooming pedophile” as it, arguably, crossfaded with that of the “seducing homosexual” after the latter’s depsychiatricization across the Western world.     

Who Enjoys the Fruits of Growth? Impact of Governments and Markets on Living Standards in Germany,The Netherlands and the U.S.A., 1987–1996

The 1980s and 1990s have been decades of quitegood economic growth in North America and muchof Western Europe. But how have the fruits ofgrowth been shared? This paper reviews changingincome distributions in the U.S., Germany and theNetherlands. These three countries may be takenas exemplars and leading economic performers in``the three worlds of welfare capitalism''(Esping-Andersen, 1990). The U.S. is a liberalwelfare-capitalist state, Germany a corporatiststate, and the Netherlands (less clearly) asocial democratic welfare-capitalist state. Thepaper focuses particularly on income changes inthe bottom, middle and top quintiles and takesa ten year period into account.Previous analyses have shown that labor andmarket income dispersion are increasing, withincreased returns to human capital. Thepotential impact of government through thetax-transfer system has been largely ignored.All three governments redistribute income fromthe rich to the poor. However, the paper showsthat only the Dutch government hasredistributed sufficiently to ensure that thebottom quintile has gained along with others.In Germany and the U.S. the poorest quintile wasconsiderably worse off in absolute terms at theend of the decade.than the beginning. TheGerman government somewhat counteracted thetrend towards greater income dispersion byredistributing to the poorest quintile, so theloss of market income was partly compensated. In the U.S. the impact of government on thepoorest quintile stayed about the same, so thisgroup ended up with about the same decrease indisposable income as market income.The U.S., Germany and the Netherlands are theonly three countries for which ten or moreconsecutive years of panel data are available.The data come from the PSID-GSOEP EquivalentFile 1980-97 and from a comparable fileconstructed from the Dutch SEP data.