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81.
The POT (peaks-over-threshold) approach consists in using the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to approximate the distribution of excesses over a threshold. In this paper, we consider this approximation using a generalized probability-weighted moments (GPWM) method. We study the asymptotic behaviour of our new estimators and also the functional bias of the GPD as an estimate of the distribution function of the excesses. A simulation study is provided in order to appreciate the efficiency of our approach. 相似文献
82.
Christian Genest Jean‐Franlois Quessy Bruno Ramillard 《Revue canadienne de statistique》2002,30(3):441-461
The authors propose new rank statistics for testing the white noise hypothesis in a time series. These statistics are Cramér‐von Mises and Kolmogorov‐Smirnov functionals of an empirical distribution function whose mean is related to a serial version of Kendall's tau through a linear transform. The authors determine the asymptotic behaviour of the underlying serial process and the large‐sample distribution of the proposed statistics under the null hypothesis of white noise. They also present simulation results showing the power of their tests. 相似文献
83.
84.
Jean‐Baptiste Michau 《Journal of the European Economic Association》2013,11(6):1320-1347
This paper emphasizes the two‐way causality between the provision of unemployment insurance and the cultural transmission of civicness. The returns to being uncivic are increasing in the generosity of unemployment insurance; but this generosity is decreasing in the number of uncivic individuals. In this context, I determine the evolution of preferences across generations and show that cultural heterogeneity is sustained over the long‐run. The dynamics of cultural transmission can generate a long lag between the introduction of unemployment insurance and an increase in people's willingness to live off government‐provided benefits. Hence, it offers an explanation to the ‘European unemployment puzzle’ due to the coexistence of generous unemployment insurance and low unemployment in the 1950s and 1960s. 相似文献
85.
Jean‐Baptiste Denis 《Risk analysis》2011,31(7):1141-1155
Stakeholders making decisions in public health and world trade need improved estimations of the burden‐of‐illness of foodborne infectious diseases. In this article, we propose a Bayesian meta‐analysis or more precisely a Bayesian evidence synthesis to assess the burden‐of‐illness of campylobacteriosis in France. Using this case study, we investigate campylobacteriosis prevalence, as well as the probabilities of different events that guide the disease pathway, by (i) employing a Bayesian approach on French and foreign human studies (from active surveillance systems, laboratory surveys, physician surveys, epidemiological surveys, and so on) through the chain of events that occur during an episode of illness and (ii) including expert knowledge about this chain of events. We split the target population using an exhaustive and exclusive partition based on health status and the level of disease investigation. We assume an approximate multinomial model over this population partition. Thereby, each observed data set related to the partition brings information on the parameters of the multinomial model, improving burden‐of‐illness parameter estimates that can be deduced from the parameters of the basic multinomial model. This multinomial model serves as a core model to perform a Bayesian evidence synthesis. Expert knowledge is introduced by way of pseudo‐data. The result is a global estimation of the burden‐of‐illness parameters with their accompanying uncertainty. 相似文献
86.
87.
Jean M. Twenge W. Keith Campbell Craig A. Foster 《Journal of marriage and the family》2003,65(3):574-583
This meta‐analysis finds that parents report lower marital satisfaction compared with nonparents (d=?.19, r=?.10). There is also a significant negative correlation between marital satisfaction and number of children (d=?.13, r=?.06). The difference in marital satisfaction is most pronounced among mothers of infants (38% of mothers of infants have high marital satisfaction, compared with 62% of childless women). For men, the effect remains similar across ages of children. The effect of parenthood on marital satisfaction is more negative among high socioeconomic groups, younger birth cohorts, and in more recent years. The data suggest that marital satisfaction decreases after the birth of a child due to role conflicts and restriction of freedom. 相似文献
88.
Daniel Cortese's book, Are we thinking straight: Thepolitics of straightness in a lesbian and gay social movementorganization examines the political strategies of theUSA organization, the Straight and Gay Alliance (SAGA), andits efforts to promote safe schools for lesbian,gay, bisexual and trans youth (LGBT). The book's main focusis on how SAGA deploys the involvement of straightor heterosexually-identified individuals as part of SAGA's publicpolitical agenda. As a national organization with numerous localchapters across the United States, SAGA encourages parents,teachers and students to work together to ensure that schoolsactively protect LGBT students from homophobic 相似文献
89.
Jean‐Joseph Cadilhon Paule Moustier Nigel D. Poole Phan Thi Giac Tam Andrew P. Fearne 《Development policy review : the journal of the Overseas Development Institute》2006,24(1):31-49
This article describes the development of vegetable marketing in Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam), where modern distribution outlets are competing fiercely with traditional traders for wholesale and retail customers. Data from interviews with supply chain stakeholders and a survey of vegetable wholesalers have been used to compare the performance of modern and traditional chains, and the findings reveal the chains as segmented in their product focus, the modern sector focusing exclusively on quality. Modern marketing channels are generally more efficient than traditional ones but still account for only around 2% of vegetable distribution. The article argues that policy‐makers should not promote the ‘modernisation’ of food systems at the expense of traditional channels which meet important consumer needs. 相似文献
90.
Lorna Jean Edmonds 《Disability & Society》2005,20(3):293-309
There are over 600 million disabled people and over 20% of the world population is impacted by disability. However, the strategies for including disabled people in the process of reform of developing countries have been rarely considered. The paucity of research is striking. Mainstreaming Community Based Rehabilitation (CBR) in Bosnia‐Herzegovina is one example where the needs of disabled people were a development priority and research was conducted to evaluate this experience. The research demonstrated that unlike the pre‐war environment, disabled people are increasingly active members of the community. The significance is that the needs of disabled people were ‘targeted’ and CBR was ‘mainstreamed’ in the primary health care system creating opportunities for sustained development. CBR is contributing to the citizenship of disabled people. This partnership project set the stage for the continued development of disability policies. These are important lessons. 相似文献