Validation of an inferential approach for the measurement of illegitimacy

An inferential model which utilizes surname comparisons in inferring legitimacy status is developed and validated. Criterion validation is employed to assess the level of agreement between the inferential approach and the conventional reporting procedure. Data for the analysis are based on a sample of birth certificates contained in files of the National Center for Health Statistics for calendar year 1973. Results indicate that despite excessive error within some categories of the control variables, the inferential method is generally adequate to obtain reliable estimates of illegitimacy.     

Wage patterns: An evolutionary perspective

The existence of wage patterns is often cited as evidence that the labor market is affected by institutional forces outside the purview of economic theory. In this paper, it is argued that such patterns can be understood as the result of an information-acquiring activity of labor market participants that enhances their chance of survival. Wage comparisons are selected, sometimes mistakenly, in an effort to cope with the uncertainty of the environment. This evolutionary analysis denies a distinction between market forces and spillovers. Helpful comments on an earlier draft were received from John Pencaval, Melvin Reder, and Stanley Siebert. The usual disclaimer attaches.     

Management attitudes toward two-tier pay plans

Two-tier pay plans, under which new hires are paid on a lower pay scale than existing employees, have been used with increasing frequency in union-management contracts. The two-tier phenomenon appears to be associated with the wider concession bargaining movement that began in the early 1980s. In this study, management attitudes toward and forecasts about two-tier pay plans are explored by means of a questionnaire survey. In general, the management community is found to be optimistic about the spread and utility of two-tier pay plans in the near term. Managers in firms that actually have two-tier plans are more enthusiastic about their impacts than other managers. Over a longer term, however, the managers surveyed tend to believe that separate wage scales under two-tier plans will eventually be merged into a unified scale. The authors would like to thank Maury Pearl and Gwang-Gi Baek for research assistance on this study.     

An experiment on coordination in multi-candidate elections: The importance of polls and election histories

Do polls simply measure intended voter behavior or can they affect it and, thus, change election outcomes? Do candidate ballot positions or the results of previous elections affect voter behavior? We conduct several series of experimental, three-candidate elections and use the data to provide answers to these questions. In these elections, we pay subjects conditionally on election outcomes to create electorates with publicly known preferences. A majority (but less than two-thirds) of the voters are split in their preferences between two similar candidates, while a minority (but plurality) favor a third, dissimilar candidate. If all voters voted sincerely, the third candidate — a Condorcet loser — would win the elections. We find that pre-election polls significantly reduce the frequency with which the Condorcet loser wins. Further, the winning candidate is usually the majority candidate who is listed first on the poll and election ballots. The evidence also shows that a shared history enables majority voters to coordinate on one of their favored candidates in sequences of identical elections. With polls, majority-preferred candidates often alternate as election winners.     

Two-parameter decision models and rank-dependent expected utility

This paper extends the existing literature concerning the relationship between two parameter decision models and those based on expected utility in two main directions. The first relaxes Meyer's location and scale (or Sinn's linear class) condition and shows that a two-parameter representation of preferences over uncertain prospects and the expected utility representation yield consistent rankings of random variables when the decision maker's choice set is restricted to random variables differing by mean shifts and monotone meanpreserving spreads. The second shows that the rank-dependent expected utility model is also consistent with two-parameter ranking methods if the probability transform satisfies certain dominance conditions. The main implication of these results is that the simple two-parameter model can be used to analyze the comparative statics properties of a wide variety of economic models, including those with multiple sources of uncertainty when the random variables are comonotonic. To illustrate this point, we apply our results to the problem of optimal portfolio investment with random initial wealth. We find that it is relatively easy to obtain strong global comparative statics results even if preferences do not satisfy the independence axiom.     

Monitoring the metropolitanization process

Alternative approaches have led to different interpretations of the metropolitanization process in the United States. We identify and illustrate several methods and procedures for monitoring metropolitan-nonmetropolitan population change using the 1950-1980 U.S. decennial censuses. Two basic approaches are compared: constant area approaches and component methods. In addition, we assess the effects of changing metropolitan definitions on metropolitan-nonmetropolitan growth. The results clearly reveal that the underlying mechanics of metropolitanization not only are complex but have changed substantially during the 1950-1980 period. We conclude with observations regarding the use of these procedures in future research.     

On the optimality of a class of minimal covering designs

It is shown that the minimal covering designs for v=6t+5 treatments in blocks of size 3 are optimal w.r.t. a large class of optimality criteria. This class of optimality criteria includes the well-known criteria of A-, D- and E-optimality. It is conjectured that these designs are also optimal w.r.t. other criteria suggested by Takeuchi (1961).