Estimation of Conditional Ranks and Tests of Exogeneity in Nonparametric Nonseparable Models

Consider a nonparametric nonseparable regression model Y = ?(Z, U), where ?(Z, U) is strictly increasing in U and U ～ U[0, 1]. We suppose that there exists an instrument W that is independent of U. The observable random variables are Y, Z, and W, all one-dimensional. We construct test statistics for the hypothesis that Z is exogenous, that is, that U is independent of Z. The test statistics are based on the observation that Z is exogenous if and only if V = F_Y|Z(Y|Z) is independent of W, and hence they do not require the estimation of the function ?. The asymptotic properties of the proposed tests are proved, and a bootstrap approximation of the critical values of the tests is shown to be consistent and to work for finite samples via simulations. An empirical example using the U.K. Family Expenditure Survey is also given. As a byproduct of our results we obtain the asymptotic properties of a kernel estimator of the distribution of V, which equals U when Z is exogenous. We show that this estimator converges to the uniform distribution at faster rate than the parametric n^{? 1/2}-rate.     

Infant mortality decline in Malaysia, 1946–1975: The roles of changes in variables and changes in the structure of relationships

This analysis has identified several factors contributing to the dramatic decline in infant mortality since World War II in Malaysia, as well as one factor that prevented the infant mortality rate from declining even more rapidly. Our main findings are the following: On average, mothers' education more than doubled over the study period, contributing to the decline in their infants' mortality. In addition, the beneficial effect of mothers' education on infant survival appears to have become stronger over the study period. Hence, further advances in education should lead to further improvements in infants' survival prospects. Another analysis of these data (Peterson et al. 1985) found that education is somewhat more influential in affecting child mortality in low-mortality, high-income areas than in the opposite type of areas. Therefore, socioeconomic development may have complemented, instead of substituted for, the the beneficial effect of mothers' education in promoting infant and child survival in Malaysia. Improvements in water and sanitation also contributed to the infant mortality decline, especially for babies who did not breastfeed. However, unlike education, these influences have become less important over time, especially for babies who are not breastfed. Hence, further improvements in water and sanitation, a goal of Malaysia's Rural Environmental Sanitation Programme, may have smaller relative effects on infant mortality than did previous improvements. Targeting such improvements on areas where women breastfeed little or not at all, however, will increase their effectiveness in promoting infant survival. The substantial reductions in breastfeeding that have taken place since World War II have kept the infant mortality rate in Malaysia from declining as rapidly as it would have otherwise. We estimate that, in our sample, the detrimental effects on infant survival of the decline in breastfeeding have more than offset the beneficial effects of improvements in water and sanitation. Unlike some other researchers (e.g., Palloni 1981), we find that changes in fertility levels and in the timing and spacing of births have had negligible effect in explaining the decline in infant mortality within the samples we have considered. We have excluded births to older women from our analysis, however; this exclusion may have led to an understatement of the influence of changes in the age pattern of childbearing.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Emotions in context: Revolutionary accelerators,hope, moral outrage,and other emotions in the making of Nicaragua's revolution

Building on the social movement/revolutions and recent social movement emotions literature and using interviews and oral history from revolutionary Nicaragua, I make a case for recognizing the significance of emotions when studying revolutions. The essay aims for a contextual understanding of the role of emotions in the making of revolution during the insurrectionary period in Nicaragua. These are examined from the vantage point of revolutionary accelerators the conflictual event-contexts from which revolutionary actors emerge. Through the historical analysis of testimonies associated with a number of politically significant events that changed the course of political dynamics in 1970s Nicaragua, the piece illustrates: (1) how events function as generators of revolutionary action and (2) how event-related emotions such as anger and fear, but primarily moral outrage and hope, contribute to a transformation in consciousness that leads potential participants to define their circumstances as needing their revolutionary involvement. It also attempts to demonstrate how the latter two emotions—moral outrage and hope—are dominant under different event-contexts. Lastly, the relationships between these emotions and how these are connected to revolutionary accelerators are similarly explored.     

The ‘compliant’, the ‘pacified’ and the ‘rebel’: experiences with Swiss disability insurance

Switzerland’s social policies in the field of disability have been significantly reshaped over the last two decades by reducing the number of allowances awarded and by increasing the recourse to vocational rehabilitation measures. What stances do individuals who experience the implementation of these policies adopt? What kind of tests are they subjected to? How can we explain the posture they adopt – be it ‘compliant’, ‘pacified’ or ‘rebellious’ – when facing the (re)assignations of their identity and professional status? Drawing on interviews conducted with individuals who have recently been involved in programmes set up by Swiss disability insurance, we highlight their uncertainties and concerns relating to their place in society, as well as their reactions to disability insurance’s interventions.     

Focused information criterion for locally misspecified vector autoregressive models

This paper investigates the focused information criterion and plug-in average for vector autoregressive models with local-to-zero misspecification. These methods have the advantage of focusing on a quantity of interest rather than aiming at overall model fit. Any (su?ciently regular) function of the parameters can be used as a quantity of interest. We determine the asymptotic properties and elaborate on the role of the locally misspecified parameters. In particular, we show that the inability to consistently estimate locally misspecified parameters translates into suboptimal selection and averaging. We apply this framework to impulse response analysis. A Monte Carlo simulation study supports our claims.     

Public-Private Wage Differentials in French-Speaking Africa: A Comparative Analysis

Abstract. In the framework of structural adjustment programs implemented in Africa, the idea that wages in the public sector are too high compared to those of the private sector is partly based on wage policies with regard to the public sector. But the existence of public-wage differentials, inducing a labour market segmentation within the modern sector, has rarely been the object of attentive examination. With the help of earnings functions, based on homogeneous cross-section and logitudinal data of seven capitals of French-speaking Africa, the author plans to verify this hypothesis. The main conclusion of this research is that distortions on the modern labour market of many African countries are less important than one may think. In most of the countries considered, public-private wage gaps are essentially attributable to characteristics of individuals. This suggests that policies aiming to reduce wages of the public sector are no longer justifiable, economically and socially.     

Automatic anthropometric personalization of a digital human model from a set of subject's photographs

The objective of the work is to develop a method for automatic dimensioning of a digital human model (DHM) from a set of calibrated photographs of the subject under study. Fifteen subjects (10 males, 5 females, mean age 27) wearing surface retro-reflective markers at major bony landmarks and standing inside a calibrated space, were photographed by means of low cost main stream digital cameras (face, left and right views). The DHM software used is based on a skeletal structure surrounded by contours defined by cross sections along the skeletal links. Specific points corresponding to bony landmarks are defined in body linkage local reference frames. The photograph calibration method (DLT) allows to superimpose a picture of the DHM on the subject's photographs. A specific algorithm adjusts the length of the manikin skeletal links in function of the measured distance between markers attached to these links (e.g. knee and ankle for the lower leg). Then the contour sections dimensions were adjusted to fit subject's silhouette extracted from the photographs. The results obtained within a few seconds of calculation consist of a personalized DHM representing the subject with an error less than 2% for stature and less than 4% for weight.