In search of the ideal measure of accuracy for subnational demographic forecasts

We examine nonlinear transformations of the forecasterror distribution in hopes of finding a summary errormeasure that is not prone to an upward bias and usesmost of the information about that error. MAPE, thecurrent standard for measuring error, often overstatesthe error represented by most of the values becausethe distribution underlying the MAPE is right skewedand truncated at zero. Using a modification to theBox-Cox family of nonlinear transformations, wetransform these skewed forecast error distributionsinto symmetrical distributions for a wide range ofsize and growth rate conditions. We verify thissymmetry using graphical devices and statisticaltests; examine the transformed errors to determine ifre-expression to the scale of the untransformed errorsis necessary; and develop and implement a procedurefor the re-expression. The MAPE-R developed by ourprocess is lower than the MAPE based on theuntransformed errors and is more consistent with arobust estimator of location.     

Differences in drinking expectancies and motives for regular education and special education high school students with emotional/behavioral disorders

Alcohol expectancies and drinking motives were compared for regular education students (n=159) and students with emotional/behavioral disorders (EBD) receiving special education services (n=51). Differences existed between groups with respect to expected negative social consequences and emotional and physical outcomes associated with drinking. Across groups, drinkers reported more positive alcohol expectancies than non-drinkers, while non-drinkers reported more negative alcohol expectancies than drinkers. Differences also existed between the regular education and EBD students who drank with respect to coping, conformity, and social motives. Accounting for sample sizes differences, the relationship between alcohol use and negative physical effect was stronger for regular education students, while the relationship between alcohol use and conformity motives was stronger for the EBD group.     

Implementing Single Session Therapy

In recent decades, discussion about clinical practice has been dominated by a focus on evidence‐based treatments, whilst the translation of evidence‐based treatments into practice has been neglected or avoided. The single session therapy (SST) field reflects this general trend. As a result, the community has not benefited from available service improvements simply because they have not found their way into core practice or been translated across state‐wide services. This article draws on a range of implementation projects managed by The Bouverie Centre, in particular a successful state‐wide SST implementation project conducted in collaboration with Victorian community health counselling services, to raise implementation dilemmas and suggest practical ideas about the translation of SST ideas into mainstream clinical practice. It is hoped this discussion will be of interest to those wanting to translate any new idea into practice.     

Embedding Artists within Planning: Calgary’s Watershed+ Initiative

Since 2011, artists have been embedded within Calgary’s Utilities and Environmental Protection department as part of the public art program Watershed+. In particular, artists are given workspaces alongside municipal staff to encourage interaction and new ideas. Watershed+ has led to innovative examples of public art that are meant to provoke thought about the local environment. Through interviews with artists and municipal staff engaged in the project, this paper explores the specific avenues through which the initiative has embedded artists within municipal planning. The paper also considers the transferability of the Watershed+ model to other cities.     

Do Compensation Consultants Drive Up CEO Pay? Evidence from UK Public Firms

Do compensation consultants drive up CEO pay for the benefit of managers, or do they design pay packages to benefit firm owners? Using a large sample of UK firms from the FTSE All‐Share Index over the 2003–2011 period, we show a positive correlation between the presence of compensation consultants and CEO pay. Importantly, isolating this effect is somewhat dependent on the endogenous selection of consultants and the statistical modelling strategy deployed. We find evidence that compensation consultants improve CEO compensation design when their expertise is of greater importance (e.g. during the post‐financial crisis period, or for firms that have particularly weak compensation policies). In addition, our findings show that compensation consultants increase CEO pay–performance sensitivity. The balance of evidence supports optimal contracting theory more than managerial power theory, but the authors caution the limits to this verification. We are careful to note that the more compelling evidence for the positive effect of pay consultants on CEOs is based on advanced methods (such as propensity score matching and difference‐in‐differences), and that more standard approaches (such as OLS and fixed effects) are unlikely to reveal the same level of causality of consultants on CEO pay.     

Comparison of Type I error rates and statistical power of different propensity score methods

Propensity score analysis (PSA) is a technique to correct for potential confounding in observational studies. Covariate adjustment, matching, stratification, and inverse weighting are the four most commonly used methods involving propensity scores. The main goal of this research is to determine which PSA method performs the best in terms of protecting against spurious association detection, as measured by Type I error rate, while maintaining sufficient power to detect a true association, if one exists. An examination of these PSA methods along with ordinary least squares regression was conducted under two cases: correct PSA model specification and incorrect PSA model specification. PSA covariate adjustment and PSA matching maintain the nominal Type I error rate, when the PSA model is correctly specified, but only PSA covariate adjustment achieves adequate power levels. Other methods produced conservative Type I Errors in some scenarios, while liberal Type I error rates were observed in other scenarios.     

Linking inventory efficiency,productivity and responsiveness to retail firm outperformance: empirical insights from US retailing segments

This paper establishes an empirical model linking a retail firm’s inventory management effectiveness to superior competitive operational performance for specific product-line retail segments. Using 16?years of US retail firm financial data from the COMPUSTAT Fundamentals database across 12 distinct competitive retailing segments, we develop and test a time-series model that links several inventory management execution measures to the competitive operational outperformance of retail firms. The analysis presented provides strong evidence that measures of inventory management performance are not ‘one size fits all’ for the retail industry, and helps to explain why extant research has had difficulty linking inventory control policy effectiveness to operational performance advantages in retailing. We discuss the implications of these empirical findings on the study of inventory policy execution, and offer some guidance for further research.