An evaluation of population projections by age

A number of studies have evaluated the accuracy of projections of the size of the total population, but few have considered the accuracy of projections by age group. For many purposes, however, the relevant variable is the population of a particular age group, rather than the population as a whole. We investigated the precision and bias of a variety of age-group projections at the national and state levels in the United States and for counties in Florida. We also compared the accuracy of state and county projections that were derived from full-blown applications of the cohort-component method with the accuracy of projections that were derived from a simpler, less data-intensive version of the method. We found that age-group error patterns are different for national projections than for subnational projections; that errors are substantially larger for some age groups than for others; that differences in errors among age groups decline as the projection horizon becomes longer; and that differences in methodological complexity have no consistent impact on the precision and bias of age-group projections.     

Race and the underdevelopment of the American welfare state

Theory and Society -     

Evaluating public health perspectives of sexually transmitted diseases: The need for further research

While sexuality is the focus of extensive research, the concept has not been adequately defined. In this paper, sexuality is defined as the individual capacity to respond to physical experiences which are capable of producing body‐centered genital excitation, that only subsequently becomes associated with cognitive constructs (either anticipatory for new experiences or reflective of past experiences) independent of ongoing physical experiences. The discussion focuses on four components of this definition: that sexuality is an individual capacity, is experiential, is body‐oriented, and is directed toward genital excitation.     

Commentary on Fischhoff et al., “Construal Processes in Preference Assessment”

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty -     

An efficient cross-validation algorithm for window width selection for nonparametric kernel regression

This paper presents an approach to cross-validated window width choice which greatly reduces computation time, which can be used regardless of the nature of the kernel function, and which avoids the use of the Fast Fourier Transform. This approach is developed for window width selection in the context of kernel estimation of an unknown conditional mean.     

Business drivers not sector membership determine the most effective production planning and control; a novel approach to a perennial problem

This paper outlines research aimed at developing novel planning and scheduling reference models for industrial sectors where the MRPII paradigm is not appropriate. It outlines the process mapping approach adopted, the data capture method developed for the case study companies, the use of ARIS (Scheer's) enterprise modelling tool, and the first stages in the production of sector reference models.