Stochastic Counterfactual Risk Analysis for the Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber‐Physical Attacks on Electricity Distribution Infrastructure Networks

In December 2015, a cyber‐physical attack took place on the Ukrainian electricity distribution network. This is regarded as one of the first cyber‐physical attacks on electricity infrastructure to have led to a substantial power outage and is illustrative of the increasing vulnerability of Critical National Infrastructure to this type of malicious activity. Few data points, coupled with the rapid emergence of cyber phenomena, has held back the development of resilience analytics of cyber‐physical attacks, relative to many other threats. We propose to overcome data limitations by applying stochastic counterfactual risk analysis as part of a new vulnerability assessment framework. The method is developed in the context of the direct and indirect socioeconomic impacts of a Ukrainian‐style cyber‐physical attack taking place on the electricity distribution network serving London and its surrounding regions. A key finding is that if decision‐makers wish to mitigate major population disruptions, then they must invest resources more‐or‐less equally across all substations, to prevent the scaling of a cyber‐physical attack. However, there are some substations associated with higher economic value due to their support of other Critical National Infrastructures assets, which justifies the allocation of additional cyber security investment to reduce the chance of cascading failure. Further cyber‐physical vulnerability research must address the tradeoffs inherent in a system made up of multiple institutions with different strategic risk mitigation objectives and metrics of value, such as governments, infrastructure operators, and commercial consumers of infrastructure services.     

Assessing efficacy in important subgroups in confirmatory trials: An example using Bayesian dynamic borrowing

Assessment of efficacy in important subgroups – such as those defined by sex, age, race and region – in confirmatory trials is typically performed using separate analysis of the specific subgroup. This ignores relevant information from the complementary subgroup. Bayesian dynamic borrowing uses an informative prior based on analysis of the complementary subgroup and a weak prior distribution centred on a mean of zero to construct a robust mixture prior. This combination of priors allows for dynamic borrowing of prior information; the analysis learns how much of the complementary subgroup prior information to borrow based on the consistency between the subgroup of interest and the complementary subgroup. A tipping point analysis can be carried out to identify how much prior weight needs to be placed on the complementary subgroup component of the robust mixture prior to establish efficacy in the subgroup of interest. An attractive feature of the tipping point analysis is that it enables the evidence from the source subgroup, the evidence from the target subgroup, and the combined evidence to be displayed alongside each other. This method is illustrated with an example trial in severe asthma where efficacy in the adolescent subgroup was assessed using a mixture prior combining an informative prior from the adult data in the same trial with a non-informative prior.     

Ctrl+ALT-RIGHT: reinterpreting our knowledge of white supremacy groups through the lens of street gangs

For the last 30 years, gang scholars have explicitly disregarded white youth who are active in groups with overt or implicit ties to neo-Nazi/skinhead or white power ideologies from street gang research. This article argues that this decision to keep these two groups separate stems from a misinterpretation of the realities of these groups and this decision has had a long-standing impact on how researchers, law enforcement and policymakers understand and interact with youth active in these groups. The coining of the term ‘Alt-Right,’ and the re-emergence of white power youth in the international dialogue, underscores how the lack of systematic research severely limits our knowledge about youth involved in gangs with white power leanings. Based on these concerns, this article challenges the current understanding of both skinheads and their troublesome youth groups/gangs. By orienting the limited research on skinhead gangs within key street gang domains, this article draws attention to disconnects in the literature that have influenced how researchers approach the study of skinhead youth. This study’s conclusions support the purposeful inclusion of skinhead youth in future street gang research.     

Culture and context: exploring attributions and caregiving approaches of parents of children with an intellectual disability in urban India

We utilized a sociocultural lens and a qualitative approach to examine causal attributions and caregiving approaches of parents of children with an intellectual disability in a mid‐sized Indian city. Sixteen mothers and three fathers participated in a semi‐structured interview. Findings elucidate participants' active processing of the cause of their child's intellectual disability. They seemed to simultaneously draw upon religious, biological and situational factors to construct an explanation. As far as caregiving approaches, most parents reported moving away gradually from mainstream medicine to alternative medicine and physiotherapy and from regular education settings to special schools. The themes highlight the role of sociocultural factors and also cross‐cultural similarities in parental causal attributions and caregiving approach. The findings are discussed in the context of implications for social work practice and policy in India.     

Broadcasting Sharia: American TV News' Illustration of Social Identity and the Emergence of a Threat

Using social identity theory to assess in-group, out-group representations, this study examines the portrayal of sharia in American network television media. A 10-year content analysis showed that ABC, CBS, and NBC continually paired sharia with mentions of the United States, reinforcing its representation as the in-group. These mentions frequently were coupled with mentions of non-Western countries, supporting the idea of an in-group versus out-group comparison. Moreover, the stories included many topics connotatively negative in Western culture. A significant and positive relationship between mentions of non-Western countries and connotatively negative topics was found, reinforcing the positioning of individuals associated with sharia—most often Muslims—within the out-group.     

Reports of Conferences,Institutes, and Seminars

Abstract

This column includes reports on sessions from the Electronic Resources Minnesota Conference 2019 and Charleston Library Conference 2019. The reports cover a user experience analysis of a discovery system, managing change due to an organizational restructure, improving communication between subject specialists and technical services, and key findings of the LYRASIS 2019 Accessibility Survey Report.     

Was pet relinquishment related to foreclosure?: A spatial research note from California during the height of foreclosure

Media reports asserted that the 2008 foreclosure crisis unleashed a rash of pet relinquishments, especially in California's central valley, an area that had the highest U.S. foreclosure rates that year. However, reports on the foreclosure/relinquishment association relied on anecdotal evidence provided by animal shelters, which is known to be flawed since many people do not give a reason for relinquishment, or give a false reason. This study compares separate data sources for the central valley city of Turlock, 2008: foreclosure data from the Stanislaus County Recorder's Office (N = 235) and relinquishment data from the Turlock Animal Shelter (N = 248). Contrary to shelter driven data, these separate data sources reported only one shared address. However, spatial analyses show that foreclosures and relinquishments were concentrated in similar areas. Analyses also show that unaltered (non-spayed/neutered) dogs are more likely to be concentrated in lower socioeconomic (SES) areas. While our initial finding contradicts recent media reports, spatial analyses verify other research on the social problems associated with concentrated foreclosures, and lend support for policies designed to reduce breeding during heighted periods of foreclosure and other economic crises.