A Quantitative Assessment of the Risks from Illegally Imported Meat Contaminated with Foot and Mouth Disease Virus to Great Britain

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is considered by many as the most important animal disease in the world. FMD is highly contagious and outbreaks incur significant costs as affected countries are severely limited in their ability to trade. A number of trade commodities may be contaminated with FMD virus (FMDV) including animal products, for example, meat. As a member of the European Union, Great Britain (GB) has put in place a number of regulations to prevent the importation of pathogens in imported meat products. However, the illegal importation of meat provides a route by which safety controls may be circumvented and meat from FMD affected areas may be imported. This study assesses the FMD infection risk posed to the livestock population of GB from the illegal importation of meat, and estimates the major contributors to this overall risk, through the development of a quantitative risk assessment model. From model results, the total amount of illegal meat entering GB each year is estimated on average to be 11,875 tonnes. with 90% certainty that this is between 4,398 and 28,626 tonnes per year; of which between 64.5 and 565 kg are contaminated with FMDV. This flow of illegal meat results in an estimate of a frequency of FMD infection in GB livestock of 0.015 cases of infected animals per year, with 90% certainty it is between 0.0017 and 0.053. Imports from the region Near and Middle East account for 47% of this risk, and 68% of the risk is attributed to bone-in and dried de-boned products.     

Opposition to Solid Waste Incineration: Pre- Implementation Anxieties Surrounding a New Environmental Controversy*

Despite sociopolitical controversy surrounding the solid waste crisis, little sociological attention has focused on this crucial environmental issue. Drawing on research from the technological controversies, environmental concern, and solid waste literatures, this study examines the pre-implementation anxieties of a Louisiana community faced with a proposal to build an incinerator in its backyard. Utilizing survey data, a causal path model is developed in which the perceived advantages of the technology, general environmental concern, and support for recycling initiatives are identified as explanatory variables of incinerator opposition. Implications of these findings for the study of technical controversies and the larger solid waste crisis also are suggested.     

Nondictatorially independent pairs

Suppose that social welfare function f satisfies the Pareto condition and has complete and transitive values. On a domain satisfying the free quadruple property, if the outcome set X has m< outcomes, then the set of pairs of distinct alternatives on which f satisfies both independence and nondictatorship contains at most the fraction 2/m of all pairs. On a domain satisfying the free six-tuple property, if X is a subset of Euclidean space then the set of pairs on which f satisfies both independence and nondictatorship has Lebesgue measure zero.Campbell's research was financed by the National Science Foundation, grant SES 9209039.     

Characterizations,length-biasing,and infinite divisibility

SupposeL(X) is the law of a positive random variableX, andZ is positive and independent ofX. Admissible solution pairs (L(X),L(Z)) are sought for the in-law equation $\hat X \cong X o Z$ °Z, where $L\left( {\hat X} \right)$ is a weighted law constructed fromL(X), and ° is a binary operation which in some sense is increasing. The class of weights includes length biasing of arbitrary order. When ° is addition and the weighting is ordinary length biasing, the class of admissibleL(X) comprises the positive infinitely divisible laws. Examples are given subsuming all known specific cases. Some extensions for general order of length-biasing are discussed.     

Exact confidence regions for species assignment based on DNA markers

Assignment of individuals to correct species or population of origin based on a comparison of allele profiles has in recent years become more accurate due to improvements in DNA marker technology. A method of assessing the error in such assignment problems is présentés. The method is based on the exact hypergeometric distributions of contingency tables conditioned on marginal totals. The result is a confidence region of fixed confidence level. This confidence level is calculable exactly in principle, and estimable very accurately by simulation, without knowledge of the true population allele frequencies. Various properties of these techniques are examined through application to several examples of actual DNA marker data and through simulation studies. Methods which may reduce computation time are discussed and illustrated.     

A note on Rescher's ‘Semantic Foundations for the Logic of Preference’

In ‘Semantic Foundations for the Logic of Preference’ (Rescher, ed.,The Logic of Decision and Action, University Press, Pittsburgh, 1967), Nicholas Rescher claims that, on the semantics developed in that paper, a certain principle - call it ‘Q’ turns out to be ‘unacceptable’. I argue, however, that, given certain assumptions that Rescher invokes in that same paper,Q can in fact be shown to be a ‘preference-tautology’, and henceQ should be classified as ‘acceptable’ on Rescher's theory.     

INCENTIVES,UNCERTAINTY, AND RISK IN THE NEWSBOY PROBLEM

This study explores the motivational consequences of an incentive device based on standard setting. It is shown that standard setting induces a wealth-seeking manager to undertake decisions that, in the manager's judgment, will improve the position of the owner relative to implementing the standard. Conditions under which it is rational for the owner to allow the manager to choose and implement decisions are discussed. Finally, consideration is given to an alternative incentive mechanism in which the manager's decisions are manipulated through variation of the incentive mechanism.     

Preschoolers' Bistrategic Resource Control,Reconciliation, and Peer Regard

Bistrategic resource control entails using both coercive and prosocial strategies in competition for resources. The present study sought to clarify whether bistrategic involves more than simply using both strategies some of the time. Examining 88 preschoolers' coercion and prosociality over an entire school year, results showed that coercive resource control was used most frequently at the start of the school year, presumably to access resources and establish social dominance. Rates of prosocial resource control increased over the school year, and socially dominant preschoolers showed higher rates compared with peers, presumably to maintain resource control while keeping peers as allies. Socially dominant preschoolers also used reconciliation more often than peers, resulting in higher rates of affiliation between former competitors and more positive peer regard from fall to spring. Findings are discussed in terms of resource control theory and the importance of situating social behaviors within the behavioral and relationship context in which they are embedded.     

Improving Risk Management: From Lame Excuses to Principled Practice

The three classic pillars of risk analysis are risk assessment (how big is the risk and how sure can we be?), risk management (what shall we do about it?), and risk communication (what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?). We propose two complements as important parts of these three bases: risk attribution (who or what addressable conditions actually caused an accident or loss?) and learning from experience about risk reduction (what works, and how well?). Failures in complex systems usually evoke blame, often with insufficient attention to root causes of failure, including some aspects of the situation, design decisions, or social norms and culture. Focusing on blame, however, can inhibit effective learning, instead eliciting excuses to deflect attention and perceived culpability. Productive understanding of what went wrong, and how to do better, thus requires moving past recrimination and excuses. This article identifies common blame‐shifting “lame excuses” for poor risk management. These generally contribute little to effective improvements and may leave real risks and preventable causes unaddressed. We propose principles from risk and decision sciences and organizational design to improve results. These start with organizational leadership. More specifically, they include: deliberate testing and learning—especially from near‐misses and accident precursors; careful causal analysis of accidents; risk quantification; candid expression of uncertainties about costs and benefits of risk‐reduction options; optimization of tradeoffs between gathering additional information and immediate action; promotion of safety culture; and mindful allocation of people, responsibilities, and resources to reduce risks. We propose that these principles provide sound foundations for improving successful risk management.