Assessment of Catastrophic Risk Using Bayesian Network Constructed from Domain Knowledge and Spatial Data

Prediction of natural disasters and their consequences is difficult due to the uncertainties and complexity of multiple related factors. This article explores the use of domain knowledge and spatial data to construct a Bayesian network (BN) that facilitates the integration of multiple factors and quantification of uncertainties within a consistent system for assessment of catastrophic risk. A BN is chosen due to its advantages such as merging multiple source data and domain knowledge in a consistent system, learning from the data set, inference with missing data, and support of decision making. A key advantage of our methodology is the combination of domain knowledge and learning from the data to construct a robust network. To improve the assessment, we employ spatial data analysis and data mining to extend the training data set, select risk factors, and fine‐tune the network. Another major advantage of our methodology is the integration of an optimal discretizer, informative feature selector, learners, search strategies for local topologies, and Bayesian model averaging. These techniques all contribute to a robust prediction of risk probability of natural disasters. In the flood disaster's study, our methodology achieved a better probability of detection of high risk, a better precision, and a better ROC area compared with other methods, using both cross‐validation and prediction of catastrophic risk based on historic data. Our results suggest that BN is a good alternative for risk assessment and as a decision tool in the management of catastrophic risk.     

《唐山大地震》凸显的女性权利意识探究

女性权利意识既是作为女性对自身的性别角色认同下的权利认知、主张和要求,也是作为社会中的人对权利的认知、主张和要求。影片《唐山大地震》中,女主角的权利意识观照出现实世界的女性权利意识,是现实中女性争取自身权利的潜意识表征。法治社会应该为女性的社会权利实现提供更多的途径。     

检察机关刑事执法与行政执法的衔接机制研究

随着现代法治进程的不断加快,法学理论界与实务界都普遍意识到:检察机关刑事执法与行政执法虽分属于两种不同性质的权力范畴,但在打击违法犯罪行为和维护国家长治久安的重大任务面前,两者作为国家权力的重要组成部分,必须要进行有机衔接,以发挥权力的共同治理作用。因此,有必要加强检察机关刑事执法与行政执法的相互衔接,积极构建比较完善的衔接机制,从而形成一套规范有序、分工负责、相互配合、相互监督的执法体系和社会治理结构。     

Impacts of government high-tech policy: a case study of CAD technology in China

Rapid growth of technology innovations promotes governments world-wide to actively explore the best way to realize its economic benefits. Likewise, Chinese government has positioned advances of high technology a driving-force to continued economic achievements, and launched various high-tech policies. This case study focuses on computer-aided design (CAD), a key field under policy support, discloses policy’s critical role. Interview/survey data from corporate and academic leaders were also collected and synthesized. The emergence of university–industry collaboration, capitalizing university intellectual property, and new modes in CAD innovation and technology diffusion are among those major findings. A Model is also proposed. The study provides new observations for debates to high-tech policy-makers and can benefit scholars and business managers seeking to understand the environment in China, and serve as a foundation for further policy and management research.     

完善西部房地产市场的对策思考

对阻碍西部房地产市场发展的相关因素进行了具体分析 ,在此基础上提出了搞好房地产市场发展规划、调整房地产投资结构、搞好物业管理、完善房地产市场中介体系、健全相关法规的几点建议。     

“侗族文化圈”中心区旅游黄金线开发

本文从整个侗族地区出发,以"侗族文化圈"为研究对象,对"侗族文化圈"中心区旅游黄金线开发丰富的旅游资源进行了全面的探讨,设计了贯穿全区的七条主要旅游线路,并提出了发展"侗族文化圈"旅游业的主要措施.     

对推进贵阳市建设循环经济型生态城市的思考

贵阳市政府作出将贵阳市建成全国首个循环经济生态城市的重大决定,把贵阳市带入一个崭新的发展阶段。贵阳市建设循环经济型生态城市既有优势也有劣势,而政府的积极倡导和扶助,相应法律、法规的建立,投资政策和项目的选择等都是应予关注的问题。     

构筑国际大都市社会主义先进文化

上海自身的发展 ,国家和世界所面临的各种挑战 ,都要求上海在建设国际大都市同时 ,同步建设社会主义先进文化。上海应当以每个人自由而全面发展为轴心 ,构建新时代“自为与超越”的文化体系 ,通过营造更为广阔的获得文化、享受文化以及创造文化的公共空间 ,在意识形态重构上 ,在各种观念更新上 ,在多层次多类型文化发展上 ,走在全国前列。大都市先进文化创造的主体 ,是优秀文化人才和高素质的市民。上海必须在汇聚国内外一大批高水准的优秀文化人才和提高全体市民文化素质上采取更为有效的措施。而上述各项目标的实现 ,则又都有待从体制上、机制上、法制上提供有力的保障     

美国民众对苏联态度的转变与“杜鲁门主义”的出台

二战结束后 ,美国杜鲁门政府便改变了战时与苏联合作的政策 ,举起反共大旗 ,对苏联进行遏制。然而 ,作为一个实行民选制度的国家 ,在制定如此重大政策时 ,不得不考虑民众的态度和意愿。为此 ,杜鲁门政府利用媒体不断批评、指责苏联 ,极力将苏联刻画为一个“极权主义国家” ,从而迅速转变了苏联在战时给美国民众留下的良好形象 ,为推行“冷战”政策奠定了民众基础。     

试析清末新政对中国文化与经济近代化的影响

近代中国的落后,使得中国饱受列强的欺凌,先进的中国人掀起了爱国自救运动,与此同时,清政府的上层统治者也在审时度势推行"清末新政",其对中国的文化与经济发展起到重大作用.