Politicisation of Conditional Cash Transfers: The Case of Guatemala

This article complements existing studies on the incumbency effects of conditional cash transfers (CCTs) by analysing the principal mechanisms by which Mi Familia Progresa (MIFAPRO) in Guatemala became increasingly politicised through clientelistic vote buying and threats of programme expulsion in case of non‐electoral support. It finds that MIFAPRO constitutes an emblematic case with mixed effects that are particularly relevant in the diffusion of CCTs to other developing countries.     

Former welfare clients in prison: education and self-reported learning problems

The aim of this study is to investigate educational background, educational wishes, actual participation in prison education, and self-reported learning problems among former child welfare clients in prison. A significant concern is that prisoners' educational level is far lower than for the general population. The same concern has also been expressed regarding former child welfare clients. The question is whether prisoners with a background from the child welfare system are especially vulnerable. The survey reported in this paper addressed the entire Norwegian prison population. We distributed a questionnaire containing questions about whether the prisoner or their family had been in contact with the welfare system, educational issues such as educational background, whether they wanted to participate in prison education and actually participated, and to what extent the participants had self-reported learning problems. We also investigated whether such learning problems affected participation in prison education. The results showed that around one-third of the 2065 respondents were former child welfare clients. The mean age of the respondents in the child welfare group was 31 years and 7.9% were women. The results further revealed that those who had been child welfare clients had a lower educational level and more self-reported learning problems than the general prison population, but most of them still wished to start an education while incarcerated.     

Testing the effect of treatment on survival time with an immediate intermediate event

In this paper, we consider testing the effects of treatment on survival time when a subject experiences an immediate intermediate event (IE) prior to death or predetermined endpoint. A two-stage model incorporating both (i) the effects of the covariates on the immediate IE and (ii) survival regression with the immediate IE and other covariates is presented. We study the likelihood ratio test (LRT) for testing the treatment effect based on the proposed two stage model. We propose two procedures: an asymptotic-based procedure and a resampling-based procedure, to approximate the null distribution of the LRT. We numerically show the advantages of the two stage modeling over the existing single stage survival model with interactions between the covariates and the immediate IE. In addition, an illustrative empirical example is provided.     

The snowball effect of customer slowdown in critical many-server systems

Customer slowdown describes the phenomenon that a customer’s service requirement increases with experienced delay. In healthcare settings, there is substantial empirical evidence for slowdown, particularly when a patient’s delay exceeds a certain threshold. For such threshold slowdown situations, we design and analyze a many-server system that leads to a two-dimensional Markov process. Analysis of this system leads to insights into the potentially detrimental effects of slowdown, especially in heavy-traffic conditions. We quantify the consequences of underprovisioning due to neglecting slowdown, demonstrate the presence of a subtle bistable system behavior, and discuss in detail the snowball effect: A delayed customer has an increased service requirement, causing longer delays for other customers, who in turn due to slowdown might require longer service times.     

Win statistics (win ratio,win odds,and net benefit) can complement one another to show the strength of the treatment effect on time-to-event outcomes

Conventional analyses of a composite of multiple time-to-event outcomes use the time to the first event. However, the first event may not be the most important outcome. To address this limitation, generalized pairwise comparisons and win statistics (win ratio, win odds, and net benefit) have become popular and have been applied to clinical trial practice. However, win ratio, win odds, and net benefit have typically been used separately. In this article, we examine the use of these three win statistics jointly for time-to-event outcomes. First, we explain the relation of point estimates and variances among the three win statistics, and the relation between the net benefit and the Mann–Whitney U statistic. Then we explain that the three win statistics are based on the same win proportions, and they test the same null hypothesis of equal win probabilities in two groups. We show theoretically that the Z-values of the corresponding statistical tests are approximately equal; therefore, the three win statistics provide very similar p-values and statistical powers. Finally, using simulation studies and data from a clinical trial, we demonstrate that, when there is no (or little) censoring, the three win statistics can complement one another to show the strength of the treatment effect. However, when the amount of censoring is not small, and without adjustment for censoring, the win odds and the net benefit may have an advantage for interpreting the treatment effect; with adjustment (e.g., IPCW adjustment) for censoring, the three win statistics can complement one another to show the strength of the treatment effect. For calculations we use the R package WINS, available on the CRAN (Comprehensive R Archive Network).     

Modern Food Supply Chains and Development: Evidence from Horticulture Export Sectors in Sub‐Saharan Africa

The global food system is undergoing rapid processes of transformation and modernisation. This is causing important changes in developing‐country food supply chains, particularly in supermarket‐driven and high‐value export chains, but the welfare implications of these changes are poorly understood. This article analyses and compares the welfare effects in different horticulture export chains in sub‐Saharan Africa, disentangling different types of effects and the channels through which rural households are affected. Its main conclusion is that increased high‐value exports and the modernisation of export supply chains can bring about important positive welfare effects, which can occur in various ways through product‐ or labour‐market effects and through direct and indirect effects.     

Energy and Civilization

This paper sketches, very briefly, the theme of ‘Energy and Civilization’ on a far larger canvass. I shall reconsider the well-known fact that, in the course of time, humans have learned to exploit more and more sources of energy. This has required new technologies, new forms of social organization, and new individual skills. In the latter sense, learning to exploit new sources of energy always was also a process of civilization, involving new forms of personal discipline. Starting from what is called “foraging” (when rudimental tools and weapons provided humans with means for using their own physical strength more effectively in order to obtain food, as almost the only source of energy), following and in some ways widening Norbert Elias perspective, the paper analyses the role of fire domestication, agrarianization and industrialization in humanization and civilization processes.     

Research into unaccompanied refugee minors in family foster care: Promoting adaptive functioning?

Unaccompanied Refugee Minors (URMs) are at high risk for trauma and maladaptive functioning. Although foster care is best suited to come forth to their needs, obtaining a better understanding of the strengths and flaws of foster care for URM can help to improve their development and psychological wellbeing. Twenty-seven URM cared for in family foster care filled in questionnaires measuring trauma, behavioural difficulties, resilience and contact with persons from the home and host country, whilst their foster care workers assessed the quality of the living environment. URMs had more trauma symptoms than other immigrants and Belgian adolescents. Furthermore, compared to Belgian counterparts, levels of resilience were low. However, URM did not have more behavioural problems. The quality of the living environment in kinship care was worse than the quality in non-kinship foster care, and social support and cultural sensitivity were protective factors. This study found evidence for developmental risks for URM in foster care. Integration, social support and a connection with the home culture were protective factors. Contrary to other studies, no evidence was found of kinship foster care being preferential.