Bootstrap Testing of Hypotheses on Co‐Integration Relations in Vector Autoregressive Models

It is well known that the finite‐sample properties of tests of hypotheses on the co‐integrating vectors in vector autoregressive models can be quite poor, and that current solutions based on Bartlett‐type corrections or bootstrap based on unrestricted parameter estimators are unsatisfactory, in particular in those cases where also asymptotic χ² tests fail most severely. In this paper, we solve this inference problem by showing the novel result that a bootstrap test where the null hypothesis is imposed on the bootstrap sample is asymptotically valid. That is, not only does it have asymptotically correct size, but, in contrast to what is claimed in existing literature, it is consistent under the alternative. Compared to the theory for bootstrap tests on the co‐integration rank (Cavaliere, Rahbek, and Taylor, 2012), establishing the validity of the bootstrap in the framework of hypotheses on the co‐integrating vectors requires new theoretical developments, including the introduction of multivariate Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes with random (reduced rank) drift parameters. Finally, as documented by Monte Carlo simulations, the bootstrap test outperforms existing methods.     

Oracle Inequalities for Convex Loss Functions with Nonlinear Targets

This article considers penalized empirical loss minimization of convex loss functions with unknown target functions. Using the elastic net penalty, of which the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (Lasso) is a special case, we establish a finite sample oracle inequality which bounds the loss of our estimator from above with high probability. If the unknown target is linear, this inequality also provides an upper bound of the estimation error of the estimated parameter vector. Next, we use the non-asymptotic results to show that the excess loss of our estimator is asymptotically of the same order as that of the oracle. If the target is linear, we give sufficient conditions for consistency of the estimated parameter vector. We briefly discuss how a thresholded version of our estimator can be used to perform consistent variable selection. We give two examples of loss functions covered by our framework.     

Response Order Effects in Dichotomous Categorical Questions Presented Orally: The Impact of Question and Respondent Attributes

Using data from 548 experiments in telephone surveys conductedby the Gallup Organization, we explored how attributes of questionsand respondents moderate response order effects in dichotomouscategorical questions. These effects were predominantly recencyeffects and occurred most in questions that were more difficultto comprehend (especially among respondents with the least education),with response choices that were more difficult to comprehend(because they were complete sentences instead of words or phrasesand because they were not mutually exclusive), and that wereasked after many prior questions. Recency effects were alsomore common in questions that explicitly or implicitly encouragedrespondents to wait until they had heard all the answer choicesbefore formulating a judgment than in questions that inducedrespondents to begin formulating a judgment before all the answerchoices had been read (especially among the least educated respondents).A study of interviewer behavior revealed patterns of pausingbetween and within sentences that help to explain why some typesof questions are especially prone to recency effects and othersare not.     

Studying children in armed conflict: data production,social indicators and analysis

The authors seek to give an overview of ways in which social indicators relevant to research on children affected by armed conflict can be developed, and how such research can be carried out. Technical and methodological challenges involved in this pursuit are discussed. It is argued that data production must consider issues of definition and delineation of the phenomenon of war-affected children more actively than it does currently. An analytical approach is proposed, in which children’s characteristics in different situations, or in different stages of conflict, may be used as intakes to understanding how the social processes pertaining to life histories of children in armed conflict are created and reproduced.

Family structure and child outcomes in the USA and Sweden

Previous research shows that living in a non-intact family is associated with educational disadvantages. This paper compares the relationships between childhood family structure, schooling, and earnings in Sweden and the USA. This comparison is interesting because both family structure and public policies differ significantly. We find a negative relationship between living in a non-intact family and child outcomes, and the estimates are remarkably similar in both countries. After using sibling-difference models, the correlation with family structure is no longer significant. These results cast doubt on the causal interpretation of the negative relationship between non-intact family structures and child outcomes.     

Interplay Between Sensation Seeking and Parental Rules in the Emergence of Heavy Episodic Drinking

This study examined the parallel mediational processes between sensation seeking and parental rules on alcohol, in the emergence of heavy episodic drinking (HED) in adolescents. Data were drawn from a U.K. clustered randomized control trial (control arm only, N ≈ 6,300, M_age at baseline = 12.5). Using parallel process latent growth curve analysis, stricter parental rules at baseline were found to be associated with greater declines in sensation seeking over time and a lower risk of HED at follow‐up (+33 months). Higher initial levels of sensation seeking predicted a faster relaxation of parental rules and a greater risk of HED. By maintaining strict rules about alcohol, parents may promote a positive reduction in sensation seeking and a lower risk of HED.     

Risk Regulation in High-Conflict Parenting

That “there is no gathering of roses without risking the thorns” might be the simplest way to think of the paradox of relationship. Risk regulation as psychological mechanism minimizes rejection (thorns) and maximizes assurance (roses). In the article, the social psychology of risk regulation is set in the context of divorce and high-conflict parenting. Risk regulation provides not only guidance for treatment, but also a conceptual framework for professional opinion in forensic evaluation and legal consideration.     

OLIGARCHIES AND DEVELOPMENT IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY: A TALE OF TWO ELITES

This paper studies how comparative advantage and the political elites' endowments shape long‐run performance in economies with imperfect political institutions. The trade regime interacts with industrial policy and regulations on capital mobility in governing capital accumulation. In a capital‐scarce economy, capitalist oligarchs striving for import substitution industrialization (ISI) initially shelter the economy from trade, while promoting industrial policies that promote total factor productivity growth in the manufacturing sector. This gradually shifts the comparative advantage toward manufacturing and renders the economy attractive to foreign investors. Allowing for trade and foreign capital inflows are thus complementary policies that spur growth in the capital oligarchy. By contrast, landed oligarchs in a capital‐scarce economy favor openness to trade at an early stage of development, neglect industrial policies, and block foreign capital to maximize extractable rents. The policy mix causes the economy to stagnate. Consistent with the experiences of South Korea and Argentina in the postwar era, the model predicts that the success of ISI policies depends crucially on the conditions governing the incentives for capital accumulation. (JEL F10, F20, P40, P50, O10, O24)     

Distress or disability? Could a theoretical framework drawn from disability studies be a way forward when trying to understand experiences of oppression on the grounds of mental distress?

This article explores whether it is possible to use a theoretical framework drawn from disability studies to understand experiences of social oppression on the grounds of mental distress. Thomas’ extended social relational theoretisation of disablism was used in a PhD project concerned with experiences of mental distress. The tentative conclusion was that Thomas’ conceptualisation of disablism and impairment could offer a way of improving understanding of mental distress and oppression on the grounds of mental distress. However, Thomas and Reeve’s theorisation of the different forms of disablism was not readily transferred to the field of mental distress. Thus, tentative definitions of the different forms of disablism in relation to the field of mental distress were created. Perceived impairment type and disablism appear to be interconnected, and one has to acknowledge what kind of perceived impairment type one is focusing on when theorising disability and the different types of disablism.