Learning to Manage the Multirisk World

Risk assessment, perception, and management tend to focus on one risk at a time. But we live in a multirisk world. This essay in honor of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) and the journal Risk Analysis suggests that we can—and have already begun to—strengthen risk analysis and policy outcomes by moving from a focus on the single to the multiple—multiple stressors, multiple impacts, and multiple decisions. This evolution can improve our abilities to assess actual risks, to confront and weigh risk-risk trade-offs and innovate risk-superior moves, and to build learning into adaptive regulation that adjusts over time. Recognizing the multirisk reality can help us understand complex systems, foresee unintended consequences, design better policy solutions, and learn to improve.     

Subnational Location Capital: The Role of Subnational Institutional Actors and Socio‐spatial Factors on Firm Location

Firms do not simply locate, but rather seek to accrue location‐based advantages such as knowledge, market insidership and resource utilization. Adopting the lens of social capital, this paper explores how subnational institutional actors facilitate location capital for firms. Using qualitative case study analysis of six multinational companies (MNCs), we highlight the important role of subnational institutional actors in fostering three dimensions of subnational location capital – structural, relational and cognitive. We show that subnational location capital, defined as the economic and social assets accessible through relationships within a subnational location, enable firms to derive advantages via subnational engagement. These findings contribute to the growing literature on the dynamic interaction of firms with subnational location, particularly the nuanced role of subnational institutional actors with MNCs.     

Toward Probabilistic Prediction of Flash Flood Human Impacts

This article focuses on conceptual and methodological developments allowing the integration of physical and social dynamics leading to model forecasts of circumstance‐specific human losses during a flash flood. To reach this objective, a random forest classifier is applied to assess the likelihood of fatality occurrence for a given circumstance as a function of representative indicators. Here, vehicle‐related circumstance is chosen as the literature indicates that most fatalities from flash flooding fall in this category. A database of flash flood events, with and without human losses from 2001 to 2011 in the United States, is supplemented with other variables describing the storm event, the spatial distribution of the sensitive characteristics of the exposed population, and built environment at the county level. The catastrophic flash floods of May 2015 in the states of Texas and Oklahoma are used as a case study to map the dynamics of the estimated probabilistic human risk on a daily scale. The results indicate the importance of time‐ and space‐dependent human vulnerability and risk assessment for short‐fuse flood events. The need for more systematic human impact data collection is also highlighted to advance impact‐based predictive models for flash flood casualties using machine‐learning approaches in the future.     

Compassion Satisfaction,Compassion Fatigue,and Burnout: A Replication Study with Victim Advocates

Abstract

Past research has investigated the rates of compassion satisfaction (CS), compassion fatigue (CF), and burnout within health-care providers. Findings indicate higher levels of CS and lower levels of CF predict lower rates of burnout. The current study extended prior research by replicating past research findings, but with victim advocates. This study enrolled a national sample of 142 victim advocates. A hierarchal linear regression was run to test the research questions. In level 1, years of experience was not significant and only accounted for 1.1% of the variance in burnout. When adding CS, the model became significant (p?<?.001) and CS accounted for an additional 51.8% of the variance. When CF was added to the final model, it was significant (p?<?.001), and accounted for an additional 19.3% of the variance. When comparing the findings to past studies, our findings were similar; however, our study did find that CS and CF accounted for significantly more variance than past studies with health-care providers. Therefore, CS and CF might be greater predictors of burnout in victim advocates than in health-care providers. Future studies should aim to create interventions to increase CS and decrease CF, to reduce burnout.     

Family support in Romania and the UK: different circumstances,similar challenges

This paper offers reflections on the challenges of refocusing child and family social work services towards family support in Romania and the UK. It analyses the major reforms to Romania's child care legislation introduced in 1997, identifying political, economic and social factors which create both opportunities and obstacles for changing policy and practice in that country. Ways in which intercountry adoption undermines the development of family support services are given particular attention. The insights generated by the discussion are doubled back to shed new light on the continuing difficulties of refocusing services from child protection to family support in the UK. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Peace and Conflict Resolution Organizations in Three Protracted Conflicts: Structures,Resources and Ideology

Guided by organizational and social movement theories, this study compares the structures, resource bases, ideologies, and strategies of nongovernmental organizations engaged in peace and conflict resolution (P/CROs) in three regions with extended violent conflicts: Northern Ireland, South Africa, and Israel/Palestine. Qualitative content analysis techniques are used to analyze 27 detailed case reports. We analyze the funding patterns and structural attributes of the P/CROs in our sample, with particular attention to how they obtain fiscal resources and membership in spite of the risks they may experience. We then explore the degree of formalization among P/CROs over time and, finally, we examine the ideological frames that P/CROs use and how these frames relate to their tactics. Throughout the analysis we pay attention to how the political context of each region influences P/CRO behavior.     

Beyond Identity: Queer Values and Community

This essay traces the movement within the LGBT community from relying on identity politics to considering a politics of value as a political and community-forming strategy. In the process, the author uses the work of Michel Foucault to think through how the articulation of shared values might open up personal, communal, and political possibilities otherwise delimited when LGBT people think of themselves within the confines of separate, and often separating, identity categories.     

Consumption Over the Life Cycle

This paper estimates a structural model of optimal life‐cycle consumption expenditures in the presence of realistic labor income uncertainty. We employ synthetic cohort techniques and Consumer Expenditure Survey data to construct average age‐profiles of consumption and income over the working lives of typical households across different education and occupation groups. The model fits the profiles quite well. In addition to providing reasonable estimates of the discount rate and risk aversion, we find that consumer behavior changes strikingly over the life cycle. Young consumers behave as buffer‐stock agents. Around age 40, the typical household starts accumulating liquid assets for retirement and its behavior mimics more closely that of a certainty equivalent consumer. Our methodology provides a natural decomposition of saving and wealth into its precautionary and life‐cycle components.     

Technology,Geography, and Trade

We develop a Ricardian trade model that incorporates realistic geographic features into general equilibrium. It delivers simple structural equations for bilateral trade with parameters relating to absolute advantage, to comparative advantage (promoting trade), and to geographic barriers (resisting it). We estimate the parameters with data on bilateral trade in manufactures, prices, and geography from 19 OECD countries in 1990. We use the model to explore various issues such as the gains from trade, the role of trade in spreading the benefits of new technology, and the effects of tariff reduction.