Everyday Race: Millennials,Generation Z,and the Census

The census is a central feature of U.S. governance, providing important information regarding the U.S. population used to determine legislative representation and the allocation of federal funding. The count also involves a measure of race and ethnicity, however the sociopolitical construction of race means census categories have shifted throughout history. Existing data highlight how current classifications do not fully capture the identities of different groups; however, less is known about the views of young adults. Utilizing interview and journal data wherein 84 college students from the Millennial and Generation Z cohorts were asked to reflect on the 2010 and 2020 census race questions, our findings reveal a major gap between census classification and everyday experiences with racial categorization. Our study provides meaningful insights into how young adults think about the census race and ethnicity categories, with implications for future research and census collection.     

FORECASTING VOLATILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEL INSTABILITY

Recent advances in financial econometrics have allowed for the construction of efficient ex post measures of daily volatility. This paper investigates the importance of instability in models of realised volatility and their corresponding forecasts. Testing for model instability is conducted with a subsampling method. We show that removing structurally unstable data of a short duration has a negligible impact on the accuracy of conditional mean forecasts of volatility. In contrast, it does provide a substantial improvement in a model's forecast density of volatility. In addition, the forecasting performance improves, often dramatically, when we evaluate models on structurally stable data.     

The Topology of Central Counterparty Clearing Networks and Network Stability

□ This paper derives a measure of central counterparty (CCP) clearing-network risk that is based on the probability that the maximum exposure (the N-th order statistic) of a CCP to an individual general clearing member is large. Our analytical derivation of this probability uses the theory of Laplace asymptotics, which is related to the large deviations theory of rare events. The theory of Laplace asymptotics is an area of applied probability that studies the exponential decay rate of certain probabilities and is often used in the analysis of the tails of probability distributions. We show that the maximum-exposure probability depends on the topology, or structure, of the clearing network. We also derive a CCP's Maximum-Exposure-at-Risk, which provides a metric for evaluating the adequacy of the CCP's and general clearing members’ loss-absorbing financial resources during rare but plausible market conditions. Based on our analysis, we provide insight into how clearing-network structure can affect the maximum-exposure risk of a CCP and, thereby, network stability. We show that the rate function (the exponential decay rate) of the maximum-exposure probability is informative and can be used to compare the relative maximum-exposure risks across different network configurations.     

Is Epidemiology the Key to Cumulative Risk Assessment?

Although cumulative risk assessment by definition evaluates the joint effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors, studies to date have not considered both dimensions, in part because toxicological studies cannot capture many stressors of interest. Epidemiology can potentially include all relevant stressors, but developing and extracting the necessary information is challenging given some of the inherent limitations of epidemiology. In this article, I propose a conceptual framework within which epidemiological studies could be evaluated for their inclusion into cumulative risk assessment, including a problem formulation/planning and scoping step that focuses on stressors meaningful for risk management decisions, extension of the chemical mixtures framework to include nonchemical stressors, and formal consideration of vulnerability characteristics of the population. In the long term, broadening the applicability and informativeness of cumulative risk assessment will require enhanced communication and collaboration between epidemiologists and risk assessors, in which the structure of social and environmental epidemiological analyses may be informed in part by the needs of cumulative risk assessment.     

Documenting the quick and the dead: a study of suicide case files in a coroner's office

In keeping with recent critiques of literature on the body and the life course, the argument of this paper is that social identities can, to a certain extent, be constructed post‐mortem and in the absence of a living body. The authors make this case with reference to a sociological autopsy study of a hundred suicide case files in a coroner's office in a medium‐sized British city. The research draws on ethnographic approaches to the study of documents. There is discussion of some of the diverse artefacts in the coroners' files: medical reports, witness statements and suicide notes. The identity work revealed in these sources is as much about the living as the dead and is especially bound up in the process of avoiding blame.