中国环境与规划（三）

中国人常说：“良药苦口,忠言逆耳”。在中国做了10年规划,我看到了一些不是简单的问题。有些问题不知道是否应该说出来,但是如果不说出来,我认为有愧领导的爱护。有一次,我与好朋友前纽约环境保护局局长、世界上一流的水处理专家AL APPLETON交谈这些问题。没想到,他与我有许多共同的看法。后来,我告诉他我正在写一本有关对中国规划建议的书,不如他来个“友情演出”,替我写一篇我们对环境保护共同看法的文章。为了得到更多“外脑”的意见和支持,我要求编辑必须将原文登出。     

Substance abuse and dependency risk: the role of peer perceptions, marijuana involvement, and attitudes toward substance use among college students

Many college students are using substances at levels consistent with Substance Abuse or Dependence, yet little explanation for this phenomenon exits. The aim of this study was to explore a risk factor profile that best separates those with low and high potential for having a substance use disorder (SUD). A discriminant function analysis revealed that participants with a high probability of having a SUD misperceive others' alcohol and marijuana use to a greater extent than those with a low probability of having a SUD. Implications for educators and counselors on college campuses are discussed.     

Endogeneity in Threshold Nonlinearity Tests

This article shows the conditions under which endogeneity of a regressor variable does not affect threshold nonlinearity tests. Inference on the values of the parameters derived from standard statistics is also appropriate. Simulation techniques are used to approximate the p-value of the test. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the validity of Wald tests in the presence of endogeneity in the regressors.     

The use of survey data to study migration–environment relationships in developing countries: alternative approaches to data collection

Growing interest in the environmental aspects of migration is not matched by research on their interrelationships, due partly to the lack of adequate data sets on the two together. Focusing on the microlevel, we describe the data required to effectively investigate these interrelationships. Data sources are discussed, including information that should be collected, focusing on household surveys and remote sensing. The main section of the paper describes three alternative approaches to data collection: (a) using existing population and environmental data from different sources, illustrated by Burkina Faso; (b) adding questions to a survey developed for another purpose, illustrated for Guatemala using a DHS survey; and (c) designing a new survey specifically to collect both migration and environmental data to investigate interrelationships, illustrated by Ecuador. Methods used and summary findings are described, followed by a discussion of their advantages and limitations. We conclude with recommendations as to effective use of each approach as research on migration?Cenvironment linkages moves forward.     

A Household-Based Distribution-Sensitive Human Development Index: An Empirical Application to Mexico, Nicaragua and Peru

In measuring human development, one of the main concerns relates to the inclusion of a measure that penalizes inequalities in the distribution of achievements across the population. Using indicators from nationally representative household surveys and census data, this paper proposes a straightforward methodology to estimate a household-based distribution-sensitive human development index aggregated through generalized means. The evidence shows that the losses in human development due to inequality reach up 22, 29 and 57% in Mexico, Peru and Nicaragua, respectively. Among dimensions, the loss in the income index reaches up 61% in Nicaragua, while the education index appears as the most sensitive in the case of Mexico and Peru, with a percentage of loss between 38 and 48%. The importance of household-level calculations is highlighted when we compare the indices computed from the entire distribution with those existing indices computed for quintiles of the distribution, which minimizes the losses due to inequality. Overall, the estimations evidence a higher sensitivity of the index to inequality, and therefore an important space for public action to reduce inequality that could involve positive development returns.     

Why good practice of OR is not enough—Ethical challenges for the OR practitioner

This paper develops the idea that following rules of good OR practice is necessary, but not sufficient for ethical OR. Several challenges of introducing ethical aspects into OR are discussed, evidencing difficulties and ambiguities in the relationship to be established between the OR practitioner and his/her clients, decision-makers or stakeholders. It shows that neither analysis nor modelling work nor the choice of analytical tools is entirely ethically neutral; incomparability, incommensurability and incertitude must be dealt with. The purpose of this article is to detail several difficulties or dilemmas an OR practitioner may be confronted with in the course of his or her assignment. In such situations, following rules of good practice may not be sufficient to indicate how to act in a morally good way. This paper aims at stimulating reflection by structuring the debate; it may leave the reader unsettled—unsettlement being a result and even aim of many discussions in moral philosophy.     

Shocks,Stocks, and Socks: Smoothing Consumption Over a Temporary Income Loss

We investigate how households in temporarily straitened circumstances due to an unemployment spell cut back on expenditures and how they spend marginal dollars of unemployment insurance (UI) benefit. Our theoretical and empirical analyses emphasize the importance of allowing for the fact that households buy durable as well as non‐durable goods. The theoretical analysis shows that in the short run households can cut back significantly on total expenditures without a significant fall in welfare if they concentrate their budget reductions on durables. We then present an empirical analysis based on a Canadian survey of workers who experienced a job separation. Exploiting changes in the unemployment insurance system over our sample period we show that cuts in UI benefits lead to reductions in total expenditure with a stronger impact on clothing than on food expenditures. Our empirical strategy allows that these expenditures may be non‐separable from employment status. The effects we find are particularly strong for households with no liquid assets before the spell started. These qualitative findings are in precise agreement with the theoretical predictions. (JEL: D11, D12, D91, J65)     

从脑科学的新发展看人文学问题

神经科学的发展已经形成了关于人文学某些经典问题的重新思考或认识。当前的神经科学发现显示： 我们的大脑和意识都是物质性的,意识的身心二元论是不能成立的,应该回归于大脑一元论。大脑很重要的一部分工作是无意识的,但却能很好地完成许多在常人看来需要意识去完成的工作,这种无意识的大脑运作过程也是大脑的一种客观属性。另外,常识心理学中所谓自由意志的存在是很可疑的,大脑在意识到自己作出决定之前已经作了决定,无意识的意志根据环境中发生的情况而作出瞬间的决定,其过程主要由大脑在发育期间所形成的工作方式以及由之后我们所学到的知识（记忆）决定。当然,自由意志是否存在这个重要问题的最终答案还应该来自于未来更多的科学实验。