Thirty‐Year Trends in U.S. Adolescents' Civic Engagement: A Story of Changing Participation and Educational Differences

Using annual cross‐sectional data from Monitoring the Future, the present study examined trends in high school seniors' current and anticipated civic participation and beliefs over a 30‐year period. We examined overall trends and patterns based on youths' post‐high school educational plans. Findings point to declines in recent cohorts' involvement in conventional and alternative forms of engagement but greater involvement in community service. Regardless of period, the majority of youth said they intended to vote when eligible, but few expressed trust in the government or elected officials. All civic indicators showed significant differences based on youths' college aspirations: Youth who planned to graduate from a 4‐year college were more civically inclined than their peers with 2‐year or no college plans.     

The Threat Effect of Mandatory Programmes in Finland

This study focuses on the threat effect of the activation reform of the Finnish labour market support system in 2006. Mandatory programme participation may provide the incentive for some individuals to look for work in order to avoid the training programmes. The study examines whether the reform encouraged individuals in the target group to look for employment. According to the results, mandatory programme participation has no effect on the probability of finding a job or of leaving labour market support for some other reason. Conversely, long‐term recipients' participation in the labour market programmes has increased, owing to the activation reform.     

Efficient initial designs for binary response data

In this paper we introduce a binary search algorithm that efficiently finds initial maximum likelihood estimates for sequential experiments where a binary response is modeled by a continuous factor. The problem is motivated by switching measurements on superconducting Josephson junctions. In this quantum mechanical experiment, the current is the factor controlled by the experimenter and a binary response indicating the presence or the absence of a voltage response is measured. The prior knowledge on the model parameters is typically poor, which may cause the common approaches of initial estimation to fail. The binary search algorithm is designed to work reliably even when the prior information is very poor. The properties of the algorithm are studied in simulations and an advantage over the initial estimation with equally spaced factor levels is demonstrated. We also study the cost-efficiency of the binary search algorithm and find the approximately optimal number of measurements per stage when there is a cost related to the number of stages in the experiment.     

Experimental designs for binary data in switching measurements on superconducting Josephson junctions

Summary.  We study the optimal design of switching measurements of small Josephsonjunction circuits which operate in the macroscopic quantum tunnelling regime. In the experiment, sequences of current pulses are applied to the Josephson junction sample, while the voltage over the structure is monitored. The appearance of a voltage pulse to a single applied current pulse, being governed by the laws of quantum mechanics, is purely random. Starting from the D -optimality criterion we derive the optimal design for the estimation of the unknown parameters of the underlying Gumbel-type distribution. As a practical method for the measurements, we propose a sequential design that combines heuristic search for initial estimates and maximum likelihood estimation. The design presented has immediate applications in the area of superconducting electronics, implying faster data acquisition. The experimental results presented confirm the usefulness of the method.     

Effects of targets and aggregation on the propagation of error in mortality forecasts

Official forecasts of mortality depend on assumptions about target values for the future rates of decline in mortality rates. Smooth functions connect the jump‐off (base‐year) mortality to the level implied by the targets. Three alternative sets of targets are assumed, leading to high, middle, and low forecasts. We show that this process can be closely modeled using simple linear statistical models. These explicit models allow us to analyze the error structure of the forecasts. We show that the current assumption of perfect correlation between errors in different ages, at different forecast years, and for different causes of death, is erroneous. An alternative correlation structure is suggested, and we show how its parameters can be estimated from the past data.

The effect of the level of aggregation on the accuracy of mortality forecasts is considered. It is not clear whether or not age‐ and cause‐specific analyses have been more accurate in the past than analyses based on age‐specific mortality alone would have been. The major contribution of forecasting mortality by cause appears to have been in allowing for easier incorporation of expert opinion rather than in making the. data analysis more accurate or the statistical models less biased.     

Mixed estimation of old‐age mortality

The estimation of the mortality of the “oldest old”; is subject to considerable random error, but important prior information exists that can be used to make the estimates more robust. Mixed estimation is a method of incorporating auxiliary information into the statistical estimation of linear models. We extend the method to cover general maximum likelihood estimation, and show that the mixed estimator can be represented approximately as a weighted average of the purely data based estimator and the auxiliary estimator. The methods can be applied to the analysis of the old‐age mortality via logistic and Poisson regression. A major advantage of the mixed estimator is the simplicity with which it can incorporate partial prior information. Moreover, no special software is needed in the fitting. We show how the targeting methods of Coale and Kisker can be represented as mixed estimation in a natural way that is more flexible than the original proposal. We also derive empirical estimates of the target information based on pooled data from several countries with high quality data. We consider the mortality of Finland at ages 80 +, study the reliability of the evidence of mortality crossover, and derive estimates of life expectancy at age 100.     

Physical violence against children reported to the police: discrepancies between register-based data and child victim survey

This study examines the reporting and not reporting of child victimization to the police. The study focuses on comparing the police reports of child victimization to the Finnish Child Victim Survey (FCVS) to find out the kind of violence that is reported to the police and the kind that is not. A total number of 242 police reports of 12-year-old victims of physical violence were collected from the Finnish Police Information System. These reports were compared to the 12-year-old children's victimization experiences in the FCVS. Discrepancies between these two data can be found in the victim's gender, the relationship between the victim and the suspect, and the location of the assault. Physical violence against girls committed by mothers is not reported as often as physical violence against boys committed by men.     

Weak covering relations

This paper proposes and justifies a natural way to weaken the concept of covering relation defined on a finite tournament. Various weak covering relations, calledk-covering relations, are introduced. To eachk-covering relation corresponds a strong uncovered set containing all nonk-covered outcomes. It is proved that those strong uncovered sets may be empty. Moreover, the set of all tournaments having an empty strong uncovered set is characterized within two rather large classes of tournaments. Finally, we offer a complete study of the cases where the directed graph defined by ak-covering relation coincides with the initial tournament.     

Early Warning Indicators for Challenges in Underground Coal Storage

Early warning or leading indicators are discussed for unexpected incidences in case of large‐scale underground coal storage at a power plant. The experience is compared with above‐ground stockpiles for which established procedures are available but where access for prevention and mitigation are much easier. It is suggested that while the explicit organization, procedures, and the general safety systems aim to provide the targeted levels of performance for the storage, representing new technology without much precedence elsewhere in the world, the extensive experience and tacit knowledge from above‐ground open and closed storage systems can help to prepare for and to prevent unwanted incidents in the underground storage. This kind of experience has been also found useful for developing the leading or early warning indicators for underground storage. Examples are given on observed autoignition and freezing of coal in the storage silos, and on occupational hazards. Selection of the leading indicators needs to consider the specific features of the unique underground facility.     

Child protection in China: Changing policies and reactions from the field of social work

This article offers a general review of the development of national policies on child protection in China. It offers an in‐depth analysis of related legislation enacted between 2010 and 2015 that have had an impact on child protection and related historical, cultural and legal issues. Furthermore, in the study we examined the emerging role of social work in preventing and responding to child abuse and neglect in China. Major findings of the research include: (i) policies concerning child protection have been highly influenced by Confucianism and its perspective of the child as family property; (ii) child protection regulations on accident reporting, custody transfer, and surrogate care are gradually being refined and improved, although the legal system for child protection is still incomplete and needs further substantiation; and (iii) the involvement of non‐governmental organisations (NGOs) and social workers has enhanced the child protection system. Key Practitioner Message: ? Policies concerning child protection have been subject to an immense impact by Confucianism, placing strong responsibility on family members in providing childcare although the child is viewed as part of the family's property; ? After 1949, the newly founded socialist political structure began to exert a significant influence on welfare and child welfare policies. Because the Confucian perspective emphasised family and parental responsibility, government in China has traditionally not been heavily involved in policies that interfere in the internal workings of families; ? Since the shift toward an open‐door policy in 1979, child protection policies in China have begun to develop, with a child welfare network gradually spreading to cover the majority of children. Moreover, child protection is generally supported by the legal system, within which regulations on accident reporting, custody transfer and surrogate care are gradually being refined and improved. However, despite the huge progress achieved in recent years, there are significant deficits in its implementation and monitoring; ? The involvement of non‐governmental organisations (NGOs) and professional social work services has promoted a child protection system.