“Know What to Do If You Encounter a Flash Flood”: Mental Models Analysis for Improving Flash Flood Risk Communication and Public Decision Making

Understanding how people view flash flood risks can help improve risk communication, ultimately improving outcomes. This article analyzes data from 26 mental models interviews about flash floods with members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, to understand their perspectives on flash flood risks and mitigation. The analysis includes a comparison between public and professional perspectives by referencing a companion mental models study of Boulder‐area professionals. A mental models approach can help to diagnose what people already know about flash flood risks and responses, as well as any critical gaps in their knowledge that might be addressed through improved risk communication. A few public interviewees mentioned most of the key concepts discussed by professionals as important for flash flood warning decision making. However, most interviewees exhibited some incomplete understandings and misconceptions about aspects of flash flood development and exposure, effects, or mitigation that may lead to ineffective warning decisions when a flash flood threatens. These include important misunderstandings about the rapid evolution of flash floods, the speed of water in flash floods, the locations and times that pose the greatest flash flood risk in Boulder, the value of situational awareness and environmental cues, and the most appropriate responses when a flash flood threatens. The findings point to recommendations for ways to improve risk communication, over the long term and when an event threatens, to help people quickly recognize and understand threats, obtain needed information, and make informed decisions in complex, rapidly evolving extreme weather events such as flash floods.     

Assessing and Improving the Performance of Nearly Efficient Unit Root Tests in Small Samples

Abstract

The development of unit root tests continues unabated, with many recent contributions using techniques such as generalized least squares (GLS) detrending and recursive detrending to improve the power of the test. In this article, the relation between the seemingly disparate tests is demonstrated by algebraically nesting all of them as ratios of quadratic forms in normal variables. By doing so, and using the exact sampling distribution of the ratio, it is straightforward to compute, examine, and compare the test' critical values and power functions. It is shown that use of GLS detrending parameters other than those recommended in the literature can lead to substantial power improvements. The open and important question regarding the nature of the first observation is addressed. Tests with high power are proposed irrespective of the distribution of the initial observation, which should be of great use in practical applications.     

Structural holes and managerial performance: Identifying the underlying mechanisms

Structural holes theory suggests a variety of possible explanations for the empirically observed relationship between structural holes and individual managerial performance. However, little has been done to disentangle one mechanism from another. This paper empirically tests a mediated moderation model that distinguishes between the five different theoretical mechanisms: autonomy, competition, information brokering, opportunity recognition and innovativeness. The findings suggest that of these five theoretical causal motors, innovativeness plays a key role in linking network structure and network content to performance.     

Examining the structure of awareness and perceptions of groundnut aflatoxin among Ghanaian health and agricultural professionals and its influence on their actions

This study uses a modified health belief model (HBM) within a socio-economic framework to evaluate the influence of awareness and knowledge on actions to reduce aflatoxin (AF) contamination in groundnuts (peanuts). Data were collected in 2002 through a self-administered questionnaire from a sample of 367 individuals. Socio-economic factors affecting perceptions, awareness, knowledge, and action were examined using structural equation modeling. The perceived benefits of good quality groundnuts and/or groundnut products were the most important determinants of awareness and knowledge of AF among agricultural and health professionals in Ghana. Awareness, in turn, had a significant causal effect on the professionals’ decisions to take actions to increase the level of awareness of AF in the society. Demographic factors, such as gender and level of education significantly influenced knowledge of AF and the perception of the benefits of good quality groundnut. Type of profession had a significant influence on awareness and perceived seriousness of the AF problem. Education was a significant determinant of awareness of AF in groundnuts. The study generates important information for policy decision making when considering resource allocation to reduce food contamination in developing economies.     

Population statistics and population registration in Norway. Part 21

The second part of this paper deals with the legal basis of medico-statistical data, and shows the type of report made by Medical Officers of Health and by private practitioners to the Norwegian Central Statistical Office. These reports deal with infectious diseases, with certain types of mental disease, and certain special diseases like tuberculosis. The system of classifying causes of death is also explained. Other sections deal with hospital and morbidity statistics and statistics obtained from recruiting authorities.     

Rural Perspectives on Same-Sex Marriage

This study explored rural perspectives on same-sex marriage with a nonprobability sample (N = 156) of adult respondents recruited in a largely rural state in the upper Midwest. A new 6-item instrument with strong internal consistency (α =.943) found that support for same-sex marriage was widespread without significant differences based on relationship status, education level, rural residence, or biological sex. Sexual orientation predicted support for traditional family values and same-sex marriage which were inversely associated. Findings suggest that the presumption of rural bias and hostility toward alternative sexualities has mitigated in the upper Midwest. Social work practitioners should infer from this study that there is more to rural culture than remoteness, isolation, poverty, stigma, and conservative religious values. The malleability of rural culture may be an unrecognized strength that may provide encouragement to rural social workers advocating for and serving lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) individuals.