Premium will continue to be on performance. Interview by Wesley Curry.

With a new name for its professional organization (the American College of Physician Executives) and a new certifying organization (the American Board of Medical Management), the profession of medical management is in the throes of significant and far-reaching change. At the College's National Conference in Washington, D.C. in May, we talked to two leaders of the profession, Michael B. Guthrie, MD, MBA, FACPE, and Robert H. Hodge, Jr., MD, FACPE about what the future holds for physician executives and what physician executives can do to position themselves for success. Dr. Guthrie, the Immediate Past President of the College is Vice President for Business Development, Penrose/St. Francis Healthcare System, Colorado Springs, Colo. Dr. Hodge, the new President of the College, is a Program Director, W.K. Kellogg Foundation, Battle Creek, Mich.     

Theory & Methods: Incomplete detection in enumeration surveys: Whither distance sampling?

This paper considers the problem of undercount or incomplete detection in enumeration surveys that are intended to estimate population counts or population abundance. The problem is widespread in ecology but also occurs in other surveys: the census undercount is a well-known example of the problem. After framing the problem in a general context, the paper focuses on line transect sampling and the distance sampling method which has been widely applied in surveys of ecological populations. It describes distance sampling data and presents a graphical derivation of the distance sampling estimator. The graphical analysis leads to a new expression for the distance sampling estimator which gives useful insights into the nature of the estimator. The paper discusses the uniformity assumption on which distance sampling depends and describes the properties of the distance sampling estimator when uniformity does not hold. It then explores the relationship between this and other evaluations of distance sampling and mentions briefly some statistical ideas for treating the general incomplete detection problem. The paper concludes with some reflections on general insights arising from the research.     

Effects of non-normality on the power function in a one-way random model

The effects of non-normality on type-I and type-II errors in a one-way random model are investigated for moderate departures from normality. It is found that the probabilities of both errors are more sensitive to the kurtosis of between group effects than that of within group effects.     

Transfer programs and aggregate household formations

The number of households in the United States increased by over fifty percent in the 1960s and 1970s, nearly double the rate of population growth. Part of the increase is explained by the movement of large cohort groups of the population into prime household-forming age categories, but higher headship rates also contribute. Age-specific headship rate increases result from non-demographic factors, and this paper focuses on the role of government transfer payment programs. Specifically considered are Social Security, Aid to Families with Dependent Children, and Food Stamps. These programs are found to have accounted for as many as 4 million net household formations between 1961 and 1984. The findings have implications for expected households formations in the 1990s.     

Absence behaviour, turnover and disability: A study among city bus drivers in the Netherlands

Absenteeism, turnover and disability, and relationships between them have been studied among city bus drivers in the Netherlands. The theoretical framework for the study was a cumulative process model of work and health. Absenteeism among these drivers was two to three times as high as the national average, while the risk of disablement was more than twice as high as the risk for male Dutch civil servants in general. Bus drivers who had to leave their job for medical reasons did so at a younger age than other groups of civil servants. The main conditions leading to disablement related to the back, tendons and joints (35%), mental disorders (35%) and cardiovascular diseases (12%). It was shown that long-term absenteeism is a strong precursor of future disability. The research suggests a work-related process of progressive deterioration of health and well-being over a reasonably long period of time. Driving city buses seems to be an occupation with high risks for health and well-being.     

Comment “On the role of data,statistics and decisions in a pandemic” by Jahn et al.

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - We comment the paper by Jahn et al. (On the role of data, statistics and decisions in a pandemic, 2022).