Input-output evaluation of rural development: a forestry-centred application

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the role of forestry in the rural economy of Scotland. The Generation of Regional Input-Output Tables (GRIT) technique is applied to the estimation of input-output tables for rural Scotland. This is followed by a forestry-centred multiplier analysis. The results suggest that the forestry planting and harvesting sectors offer great potential for improving economic activity. However, their backward linkages with other rural industries seem to be limited. On the other hand, the backward linkages of wood-processing industries with the rest of the economy are strong. From this analysis, it is concluded that the joint development of forestry and wood-processing industries would promote economic development in rural Scotland.     

The 10% Flat Tax: Tithing and the Definition of Income

Developing a fair and widely accepted income definition presents one of the greatest challenges to tax reform. To arrive at a definition separate from the federal tax code, we surveyed 1200 Latter‐day Saints about their practice of tithing. Tithing is similar to a flat tax with no deductions, where individuals voluntarily contribute 10% of self‐defined income to the church. The results of our survey indicate that most respondents operate on a cash realization basis, which excludes savings and does not allow any deductions. Respondents' income concepts generally do not coincide with current tax laws or economists' views of comprehensive income.     

Sustainability when capital management has stochastic consequences

Sustainability is usually defined as a requirement of each generation to manage its stocks of man-made and natural capital such that the utility that it ensures itself can be shared by all future generations. Here we extend this definition to the case where capital management does not have deterministic consequences. A characterization is offered where the sustainability of one generation's behavior can be determined by comparing its utility with the utility of the succeeding generation, provided that the latter behaves in a sustainable manner. The properties of the definition are investigated and illustrated. Received: 26 April 1994/Accepted: 15 April 2002     

Aid, Relief, and Containment: The First Asylum Country and Beyond

A fundamental problem that confronts the European Union today is how it can maintain its commitment to the institution of asylum while checking irregular migration and the abuse of its asylum system. In order to explore a response to this dilemma the paper addresses the following questions: what role can relief and aid policies play in influencing migration patterns? What should be the appropriate approach to the granting of relief and aid to developing countries of first asylum? Should it be viewed as a part of the larger problem of development or be treated as a distinct issue? What kind of a relief/aid model will help refugees return to post–conflict societies and stop the conflict from reproducing itself? The paper examines two different approaches to address these questions: the alliance–containment approach and the distributive–developmental approach. It also looks at some empirical evidence, which reveals that at present it is a conservative alliance–containment approach that informs EU relief and aid practices. This approach, however, does not help achieve the stated objective of checking abuse of asylum and migration procedures while sustaining a commitment to a liberal asylum regime. The paper goes on to identify the gaps in EU policy and the lessons that can be drawn. It concludes by looking at different policy alternatives and suggesting the adoption of a reformist distributive–developmental model. The implementation of this model holds out the hope of reverting to a more liberal asylum regime while controlling irregular migration and “bogus” asylum seekers, for the reformist distributive developmental model takes a more long–term view of migration trends and also seeks to address the growing North–South divide.     

A Comparison of Partially Adaptive and Reweighted Least Squares Estimation

The small sample performance of least median of squares, reweighted least squares, least squares, least absolute deviations, and three partially adaptive estimators are compared using Monte Carlo simulations. Two data problems are addressed in the paper: (1) data generated from non-normal error distributions and (2) contaminated data. Breakdown plots are used to investigate the sensitivity of partially adaptive estimators to data contamination relative to RLS. One partially adaptive estimator performs especially well when the errors are skewed, while another partially adaptive estimator and RLS perform particularly well when the errors are extremely leptokur-totic. In comparison with RLS, partially adaptive estimators are only moderately effective in resisting data contamination; however, they outperform least squares and least absolute deviation estimators.     

Exploring multivariate data graphically:a brief review with examples

Many methods for obtaining graphical representations of multivariate data have been suggested over the last decade, but it is only relatively recently that software has become available which makes use of these procedures routine. In this paper, a number of examples are used to illustrate the application of graphical methods for the exploration of multivariate data. The diagrams produced may prove useful in consultations with clients and in examining the results from more formal methods.     

Sources of family violence

This paper suggests a direction for the exploration of the causes of family violence. Explanatory models of family violence were considered in this regard, with the recommendation that a multi-determined model should be considered to ensure the most accurate explanation. We suggest that family violence will be best understood and prevented or alleviated, if a model is used that considers the interaction of structural violence and the personality features of all the family members.     

Sources of drug information among adolescent students

A sample of 1023 eighth and tenth grade students in small to medium-sized central Texas school districts was assessed to determine the amount of information they receive from ten sources about six categories of drugs. The amount of information males reported receiving about each drug category was significantly greater than what females reported, and the amount of information that eighth graders reported receiving about each drug category was significantly greater than what tenth graders reported. Television was the primary source of drug information for all categories of drugs except inhalants, for which friends and television were equally important sources. Parents and printed media (magazines or newspapers) were of secondary importance, followed by friends and teachers. Adolescents were less likely to receive drug-related information from experience, siblings, church, doctors, and police. The reliance on the mass media for drug information in smaller school districts is a pattern which has been previously observed in larger urban districts. This consistency suggests that mass media approaches to drug education are likely to be as effective in rural areas and smaller towns as they are among urban adolescents. Implications for television programming are discussed.     

Book Review: Beyond Earth Day: Fulfilling the Promise. Gaylord Nelson with Susan Campbell and Paul Wozniak. Madison,WI: The University of Wisconsin Press, 2002: 160 pp.

Population and Environment -     

On the existence and uniqueness of maximizers of two likelihood functions

While applying theclassical maximum likelihood method for a certain statistical inference problem, Smith and Weissman [5] have noted that there are conditions under which the likelihood function may be unbounded above or may not possess local maximizers. Ariyawansà and Templeton [1] have derived inference procedures for this problem using the theory of structural inference [2,3,4]. Based on numerical experience, and without proof, they state that the resulting likelihood functions possess unique, global maximizers, even in instances where the classical maximum likelihood method fails in the above sense. In this paper, we prove that under quite mild conditions, these likelihood functions that result from the application of the theory of structural inference are well-behaved, and possess unique, global maximizers. This research was supported in part by the Applied Mathematical Sciences subprogram of the U.S. Department of Energy under contract W-31-109-Eng-38 while the author was visiting the Mathematics and Computer Science Division of Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois.