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61.
Johannes Hrner Takuo Sugaya Satoru Takahashi Nicolas Vieille 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2011,79(4):1277-1318
We present an algorithm to compute the set of perfect public equilibrium payoffs as the discount factor tends to 1 for stochastic games with observable states and public (but not necessarily perfect) monitoring when the limiting set of (long‐run players') equilibrium payoffs is independent of the initial state. This is the case, for instance, if the Markov chain induced by any Markov strategy profile is irreducible. We then provide conditions under which a folk theorem obtains: if in each state the joint distribution over the public signal and next period's state satisfies some rank condition, every feasible payoff vector above the minmax payoff is sustained by a perfect public equilibrium with low discounting. 相似文献
62.
In this paper, we present a case study on the production planning and inventory system in a company manufacturing personal computer (PC) parts. In the case study, the targets are specified for developing a system for production planning and inventory control. The current state of the company is analysed for clarifying the points necessary to achieve the targets. Also, a system based on the analysis is proposed and its effects are estimated. 相似文献
63.
Jun'ichiro Iwahori Akio Yamamoto Hodaka Suzuki Takehisa Yamamoto Toshiyuki Tsutsui Keiko Motoyama Mikiko Sawada Tomoki Matsushita Atsushi Hasegawa Ken Osaka Hajime Toyofuku Fumiko Kasuga 《Risk analysis》2010,30(12):1817-1832
The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of implemented control measures to reduce illness induced by Vibrio parahaemolyticus (V. parahaemolyticus) in horse mackerel (Trachurus japonicus), seafood that is commonly consumed raw in Japan. On the basis of currently available experimental and survey data, we constructed a quantitative risk model of V. parahaemolyticus in horse mackerel from harvest to consumption. In particular, the following factors were evaluated: bacterial growth at all stages, effects of washing the fish body and storage water, and bacterial transfer from the fish surface, gills, and intestine to fillets during preparation. New parameters of the beta‐Poisson dose‐response model were determined from all human feeding trials, some of which have been used for risk assessment by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USFDA). The probability of illness caused by V. parahaemolyticus was estimated using both the USFDA dose‐response parameters and our parameters for each selected pathway of scenario alternatives: washing whole fish at landing, storage in contaminated water, high temperature during transportation, and washing fish during preparation. The last scenario (washing fish during preparation) was the most effective for reducing the risk of illness by about a factor of 10 compared to no washing at this stage. Risk of illness increased by 50% by exposure to increased temperature during transportation, according to our assumptions of duration and temperature. The other two scenarios did not significantly affect risk. The choice of dose‐response parameters was not critical for evaluation of control measures. 相似文献
64.
Happiness is considered one of the goals of individuals and nations. Thus, many interdisciplinary efforts have attempted to determine the factors that lead to happiness. However, most of these efforts have ignored some important but less tangible factors, such as having a free press and a healthy environment. In this study, we argue that press freedom—a measure of social capital—along with human and built capital, and natural capital, predicts levels of life satisfaction across nations. Using data from 161 countries, our study provides empirical support to our theoretical model that forms of capital do not influence life satisfaction separately but are actually situated in a web of interrelationships. This is consistent with the assumptions that the road to happiness is not direct. It is a complex path where different forms of capital influence one another before leading to a happy life. 相似文献
65.
66.
Tatsuya Kubokawa Mana Hasukawa Kunihiko Takahashi 《Scandinavian Journal of Statistics》2014,41(2):394-413
Empirical Bayes (EB) estimates in general linear mixed models are useful for the small area estimation in the sense of increasing precision of estimation of small area means. However, one potential difficulty of EB is that the overall estimate for a larger geographical area based on a (weighted) sum of EB estimates is not necessarily identical to the corresponding direct estimate such as the overall sample mean. Another difficulty is that EB estimates yield over‐shrinking, which results in the sampling variance smaller than the posterior variance. One way to fix these problems is the benchmarking approach based on the constrained empirical Bayes (CEB) estimators, which satisfy the constraints that the aggregated mean and variance are identical to the requested values of mean and variance. In this paper, we treat the general mixed models, derive asymptotic approximations of the mean squared error (MSE) of CEB and provide second‐order unbiased estimators of MSE based on the parametric bootstrap method. These results are applied to natural exponential families with quadratic variance functions. As a specific example, the Poisson‐gamma model is dealt with, and it is illustrated that the CEB estimates and their MSE estimates work well through real mortality data. 相似文献
67.
Fumiki Takahashi 《Researches on Population Ecology》1976,18(1):235-242
A heterogeneous life cycle of individuals in a population was examined on its adaptive significance to an unstable environmental
condition. The trend of population growth was simulated by a simple mathematical model in which a part of population in a
certain generation was carried over to the next generation without participating in the reproduction.
With the increase of the rate of carryover of individuals to the next generation the population fluctuation tended to be stabilized.
A minute fraction of population is carried over, the effect is very large to prevent the population decline at a sequence
of adverse environmental conditions. The population level increased greatly depending upon the extent of environmental change
as far as the rate of carryover took an intermediate value. The optimum proportion of members to be carried over to the next
generation was determined by the extent of environmental change and its frequency of occurrence. 相似文献