A QUASI‐LOCALLY MOST POWERFUL TEST FOR CORRELATION IN THE CONDITIONAL VARIANCE OF POSITIVE DATA

A test is derived for short‐memory correlation in the conditional variance of strictly positive, skewed data. The test is quasi‐locally most powerful (QLMP) under the assumption of conditionally gamma data. Analytical asymptotic relative efficiency calculations show that an alternative test, based on the first‐order autocorrelation coefficient of the squared data, has negligible relative power to detect correlation in the conditional variance. Finite‐sample simulation results confirm the poor performance of the squares‐based test for fixed alternatives, as well as demonstrating the poor performance of the test based on the first‐order autocorrelation coefficient of the raw (levels) data. The robustness of the QLMP test, both to misspecification of the conditional distribution and to misspecification of the dynamics, is also demonstrated using simulation. The test is illustrated using financial trade durations data.     

Local elected officials and environmental policy: Does rural matter anymore?

A survey was mailed to elected officials (mayors and city council) from a sample of 52 rural communities in Idaho and all 7 communities with populations above 20,000 to examine whether there is a relationship between environmental policy issues and various independent variables such as economic type, age, gender, rural/ urban, political ideology, and percentage of life lived in the current community. One-hundred and fifty-five (155) out of three hundred twenty seven (327) respondents returned the survey for a response rate of 47%. The findings reveal that while the rural/urban dichotomy consistently predicted for questions on “trust of information sources,” overall economic base was a better predictor of attitudes toward environmental issues and policy.     

Barriers and Enablers to Safeguarding Children and Adults within a Disability Services Context: Insights from an Australian Delphi Study

Research conducted in the 1990s revealed the tragic irony that exposure to the disability support system, and particularly to its institutional forms, was a major risk factor related to the neglect and abuse of children and adults with a disability. Subsequently, a range of policies have been introduced to minimize risk. However, recurring events of abuse and neglect in the disability services sector in high and middle income countries demonstrate that processes geared to safeguard children and adults with a disability from abuse and neglect remain insufficient. To establish the wider fabric of organizational factors that contribute to effective safeguarding practices within the Australian disability support sector, a modified online Delphi study was conducted, capturing the views of disability services staff and managers (n = 249) regarding barriers and enablers to effective safeguarding. This study identified issues concerning organizational culture, management practice, workforce development, client capacity building and contextual factors. During Round Two of the Delphi, participants were asked to rate the categorized enabler statements according to importance on a 10‐point Likert scale, to ascertain the degree of consensus. A total of 262 of the statements were regarded as important or very important. The Delphi result highlighted the considerable gap between the wider systemic and cultural processes that, in the eyes of disability services staff and management, contribute to good safeguarding practice and the safeguarding measures currently in place. The article calls for a holistic approach to safeguarding that addresses procedural issues and to the transformation of the wider systemic and cultural fabric of an organization.     

Controlling for endogeneity in the health-socioeconomic status relationship of the near retired

Although there is a strong correlation between health and socioeconomic status (SES), the direction of causation is not empirically clear. This study a uses a two stage methodology to control for endogeneity. Using data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study, the results show that after controlling for endogeneity, labor force status turns out to be an even more important factor in determining health than in the case where endogeneity is not controlled for. In particular, unemployment generates much higher odds for worse health as measured by both subjective and objective health measures.     

Abstract Rule Learning for Visual Sequences in 8‐ and 11‐Month‐Olds

The experiments reported here investigated the development of a fundamental component of cognition: to recognize and generalize abstract relations. Infants were presented with simple rule‐governed patterned sequences of visual shapes (ABB, AAB, and ABA) that could be discriminated from differences in the position of the repeated element (late, early, or nonadjacent, respectively). Eight‐month‐olds were found to distinguish patterns on the basis of the repetition, but appeared insensitive to its position in the sequence; 11‐month‐olds distinguished patterns over the position of the repetition, but appeared insensitive to the nonadjacent repetition. These results suggest that abstract pattern detection may develop incrementally in a process of constructing complex relations from more primitive components.     

Bigamy: Neither Love nor Marriage,but a Threat to the Nation?

In a computer search of 18 national newspapers over a three-year period (1993–1945) 420 mentions of bigamy were identified. 110 items (or 26 per cent) referred to 26 current criminal cases involving bigamy. Seven cases attracted 70 per cent of the coverage. The comments of the presiding judge were widely reported in five of these cases together with titillating detail. Two other cases included comments by judges. Using Phoenix's (1996) distinction between threats to the nation-state from 'inside' and 'outside', the analysis indicates that two issues of wider socio-political importance – familism and immigration – were central to the judges' comments reported in the press and produced an important counterpoise to the titillating features of these cases. It is argued that the newspaper reporting of bigamy constructs bigamists as being a threat to Britain from 'inside' to the institution of marriage, while the threat from 'outside' is from minority ethnic men marrying female bigamists to gain residential status in Britain. It is the latter challenge which brings the most significant condemnation.     

Collaboration Among Rural Nonprofit Organizations

Collaboration has received strong impetus in recent years. Service providers face greater expectations that they will share human and financial resources with other organizations, conduct joint planning, and devise other ways to break down organization barriers. This article analyzes collaborative practices among nonprofit organizations in rural southern Illinois and the Mississippi Delta. Environmental factors present in rural areas suggest that collaboration may be difficult to accomplish. Clients are scattered over a large geographic area, they are hard to contact because of transportation problems, community financial resources are limited, staff salaries are low, and some rural populations resist service offerings. Despite these difficulties, nonprofits in the two rural regions do engage in significant collaborations, and their leadership shows strong commitment to partnering with other organizations. Certain characteristics of the rural environment actually facilitate collaboration.     

EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING AND NON‐NEGATIVE DATA

The most common forecasting methods in business are based on exponential smoothing, and the most common time series in business are inherently non‐negative. Therefore it is of interest to consider the properties of the potential stochastic models underlying exponential smoothing when applied to non‐negative data. We explore exponential smoothing state space models for non‐negative data under various assumptions about the innovations, or error, process. We first demonstrate that prediction distributions from some commonly used state space models may have an infinite variance beyond a certain forecasting horizon. For multiplicative error models that do not have this flaw, we show that sample paths will converge almost surely to zero even when the error distribution is non‐Gaussian. We propose a new model with similar properties to exponential smoothing, but which does not have these problems, and we develop some distributional properties for our new model. We then explore the implications of our results for inference, and compare the short‐term forecasting performance of the various models using data on the weekly sales of over 300 items of costume jewelry. The main findings of the research are that the Gaussian approximation is adequate for estimation and one‐step‐ahead forecasting. However, as the forecasting horizon increases, the approximate prediction intervals become increasingly problematic. When the model is to be used for simulation purposes, a suitably specified scheme must be employed.     

Specialization and promotion in an academic discipline

What does it take to get tenure in an academic discipline? The receipt of tenure has received less attention in the research literature on scientific careers than other career outcomes. To explain variation in the “risk” of receiving tenure, we theorize that the extent of specialization in scholars’ research programs should improve promotion prospects, especially for men. Using data on sociology PhD recipients in 1972–1976, we construct a measure of research specialization and add it to a traditional attainment model that includes productivity, visibility, and prestige of specialty area(s). We find that a high degree of specialization actually decreases promotion prospects, at least for men.