The estimation of gross flows in the presence of measurement error using auxiliary variables

Classification error can lead to substantial biases in the estimation of gross flows from longitudinal data. We propose a method to adjust flow estimates for bias, based on fitting separate multinomial logistic models to the classification error probabilities and the true state transition probabilities using values of auxiliary variables. Our approach has the advantages that it does not require external information on misclassification rates, it permits the identification of factors that are related to misclassification and true transitions and it does not assume independence between classification errors at successive points in time. Constraining the prediction of the stocks to agree with the observed stocks protects against model misspecification. We apply the approach to data on women from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics with three categories of labour force status. The model fitted is shown to have interpretable coefficient estimates and to provide a good fit. Simulation results indicate good performance of the model in predicting the true flows and robustness against departures from the model postulated.     

Modeling Extreme Risks in Ecology

Extreme risks in ecology are typified by circumstances in which data are sporadic or unavailable, understanding is poor, and decisions are urgently needed. Expert judgments are pervasive and disagreements among experts are commonplace. We outline approaches to evaluating extreme risks in ecology that rely on stochastic simulation, with a particular focus on methods to evaluate the likelihood of extinction and quasi‐extinction of threatened species, and the likelihood of establishment and spread of invasive pests. We evaluate the importance of assumptions in these assessments and the potential of some new approaches to account for these uncertainties, including hierarchical estimation procedures and generalized extreme value distributions. We conclude by examining the treatment of consequences in extreme risk analysis in ecology and how expert judgment may better be harnessed to evaluate extreme risks.     

Nursing home administrators' views of volunteers' work in an ombudsman program

This research investigated nursing home administrators' (NHAs) perceptions of visits of volunteers in an ombudsman program in relation to effectiveness and satisfaction. Unlike placements of other volunteers made at the behest of organizations, visits of volunteer advocates, which may be mandated and include evaluative assessments of care, usually do not occur at the invitation of NHAs. Yet, outcomes for administrators are not often studied. Despite research showing stress attributed to interaction with state agencies, questionnaire data from 196 NHAs indicated that more contact between volunteers and NHAs was associated with perceptions of greater effectiveness and satisfaction. Those who found visits infrequent and with little impact rated the work of volunteers as less effective and were less satisfied. Qualitative data describe unexpected benefits of visits that were internal and external to the facilities.     

Body Weight Distributions for Risk Assessment

Precise age-specific average body weight estimates are necessary for deterministic risk assessments, and an accurate body weight distribution is equally important in probabilistic risk assessments. Age-specific body weight distributions for U.S. residents are estimated using NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) data collected in four surveys over the last 24 years. The weighted mean and standard deviation of natural log-transformed body weights are computed for single-year age groups and population age-specific weight patterns further described using piece-wise polynomial spline functions and nonparametric age-smoothed trend lines. These functions are used to compare distributional changes in age-specific body weight in the United States from the first NHANES survey in 1976-1980 to the most recent in 1999-2002. Analysis demonstrates that age- and sex-specific average body weight changes over this time period are not uniform. Use of these functions to compute body weight distributions for selected child-age categories is demonstrated.     

Trauma,World Assumptions,and Coping Resources among Youthful Offenders: Social Work,Mental Health,and Criminal Justice Implications

The purpose of this study was to contribute to the extant literature by examining the relationship of traumatic and stressful life experiences among youthful offenders aged 18–24 years old. The sample included 38 youthful offenders incarcerated in the New Jersey Department of Corrections in 2008. During in-person interviews, youthful offenders completed a survey that gathered information on cumulative trauma, world assumptions, and coping resources using the Stressful Life Experiences Screening Inventory-Long Form, World Assumption Scale, and Coping Resources Inventory. A series of OLS regression analyses revealed partial support for the study hypotheses that cumulative trauma is significantly and negatively associated to youthful offenders’ basic world assumptions about the world having meaning. Opposite of what was expected, it was found that cumulative trauma was significantly and positively associated with spiritual coping resources among youthful offenders. These findings have important implications for developing and improving interdisciplinary and multi-level trauma assessment and intervention strategies with youthful offenders.     

Network Framing of Pest Management Knowledge and Practice*

Abstract Conventional technology transfer is based on the assumption that autonomous individuals independently make behavioral decisions. In contrast, Actor‐Network Theory (ANT) suggests that people and technologies are interconnected in ways that reinforce and reproduce some types of knowledge and consequent behavioral practices, but not others. Research on pest management in Mali shows the extent to which farm‐level decisions are shaped off‐farm through contracts that communicate commercial and regulatory decision‐making information. Findings from the analysis of Ukrainian farmer pest management decision‐making demonstrate the exercise of power of commercial interests. In light of these findings, evidence from Farmer Field School experiences in Indonesia is reinterpreted. This paper concludes that knowledge networks are not monolithic and, furthermore, there is competition between network segments to define appropriate knowledge and practice. It also recommends that agricultural scientists pay more attention to the negotiations framing legitimate knowledge about the networks in which their producer clienteles are embedded.