转变教育观念 实现可持续发展——论重庆可持续发展的教育基础

针对重庆市教育现状,提出转变教育思想和办学体制观念,实现重庆市可持续发展的对策措施。     

基于梁模型的管路振动主动控制器设计

以计划行为理论为基础,利用调研获取的农户数据,分析了农户当前对于低碳属性农业技术的采用现状,并采用多层Logistic回归模型估计了农业项目和农户两个层面因素对农户低碳农业技术后续采用意愿所产生的影响。结果表明：农户对于低碳农业技术采用后的效果评价较好,技术需求度和后续采用意愿均处于较高的水平上,并且不同类型农户对当前低碳农业技术的采用程度、偏好程度存在一定差异;农业生产项目和农户经营主体两个层面的因素均对农户低碳农业技术后续采用意愿产生重要影响,且对于不同类型农户后续采用意愿的作用效果存在一定差异,其中农业项目的地理特征、经济效益、资金技术要素投入强度和农户的行为意向产生的影响作用较强;农户技术采用强度受到农户个体特征和行为意向的显著影响,且作用效果在不同类型农户之间存在明显差异。     

An International Pooled Analysis for Obtaining a Benchmark Dose for Environmental Lead Exposure in Children

Lead is a recognized neurotoxicant, but estimating effects at the lowest measurable levels is difficult. An international pooled analysis of data from seven cohort studies reported an inverse and supra‐linear relationship between blood lead concentrations and IQ scores in children. The lack of a clear threshold presents a challenge to the identification of an acceptable level of exposure. The benchmark dose (BMD) is defined as the dose that leads to a specific known loss. As an alternative to elusive thresholds, the BMD is being used increasingly by regulatory authorities. Using the pooled data, this article presents BMD results and applies different statistical techniques in the analysis of multistudy data. The calculations showed only a limited variation between studies in the steepness of the dose‐response functions. BMD results were quite robust to modeling assumptions with the best fitting models yielding lower confidence limits (BMDLs) of about 0.1–1.0 μ g/dL for the dose leading to a loss of one IQ point. We conclude that current allowable blood lead concentrations need to be lowered and further prevention efforts are needed to protect children from lead toxicity.     

New Data,Strategies, and Insights for Listeria monocytogenes Dose‐Response Models: Summary of an Interagency Workshop, 2011

Listeria monocytogenes is a leading cause of hospitalization, fetal loss, and death due to foodborne illnesses in the United States. A quantitative assessment of the relative risk of listeriosis associated with the consumption of 23 selected categories of ready‐to‐eat foods, published by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 2003, has been instrumental in identifying the food products and practices that pose the greatest listeriosis risk and has guided the evaluation of potential intervention strategies. Dose‐response models, which quantify the relationship between an exposure dose and the probability of adverse health outcomes, were essential components of the risk assessment. However, because of data gaps and limitations in the available data and modeling approaches, considerable uncertainty existed. Since publication of the risk assessment, new data have become available for modeling L. monocytogenes dose‐response. At the same time, recent advances in the understanding of L. monocytogenes pathophysiology and strain diversity have warranted a critical reevaluation of the published dose‐response models. To discuss strategies for modeling L. monocytogenes dose‐response, the Interagency Risk Assessment Consortium (IRAC) and the Joint Institute for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (JIFSAN) held a scientific workshop in 2011 (details available at http://foodrisk.org/irac/events/ ). The main findings of the workshop and the most current and relevant data identified during the workshop are summarized and presented in the context of L. monocytogenes dose‐response. This article also discusses new insights on dose‐response modeling for L. monocytogenes and research opportunities to meet future needs.     

An Empirical Approach to Sufficient Similarity: Combining Exposure Data and Mixtures Toxicology Data

When assessing risks posed by environmental chemical mixtures, whole mixture approaches are preferred to component approaches. When toxicological data on whole mixtures as they occur in the environment are not available, Environmental Protection Agency guidance states that toxicity data from a mixture considered “sufficiently similar” to the environmental mixture can serve as a surrogate. We propose a novel method to examine whether mixtures are sufficiently similar, when exposure data and mixture toxicity study data from at least one representative mixture are available. We define sufficient similarity using equivalence testing methodology comparing the distance between benchmark dose estimates for mixtures in both data‐rich and data‐poor cases. We construct a “similar mixtures risk indicator”(SMRI) (analogous to the hazard index) on sufficiently similar mixtures linking exposure data with mixtures toxicology data. The methods are illustrated using pyrethroid mixtures occurrence data collected in child care centers (CCC) and dose‐response data examining acute neurobehavioral effects of pyrethroid mixtures in rats. Our method shows that the mixtures from 90% of the CCCs were sufficiently similar to the dose‐response study mixture. Using exposure estimates for a hypothetical child, the 95th percentile of the (weighted) SMRI for these sufficiently similar mixtures was 0.20 (i.e., where SMRI <1, less concern; >1, more concern).     

Modeling Imbalanced Economic Recovery Following a Natural Disaster Using Input‐Output Analysis

Input‐output analysis is frequently used in studies of large‐scale weather‐related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10–30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery.     

Risks Perception of Electromagnetic Fields in Taiwan: The Influence of Psychopathology and the Degree of Sensitivity to Electromagnetic Fields

Little is known about the perceived health risks of electromagnetic fields (EMFs) and factors associated with risk perception in non‐Western countries. Psychological conditions and risk perception have been postulated as factors that facilitate the attribution of health complaints to environmental factors. This study investigated people's perceived risks of EMFs and other environmental sources, as well as the relationships between risk perception, psychopathology, and the degree of self‐reported sensitivity to EMFs. A total of 1,251 adults selected from a nationwide telephone interviewing system database responded to a telephone survey about the relationships between environmental sources and human health. The interview included questions assessing participants’ psychiatric conditions and the presence and degree of sensitivity to EMFs. One hundred and seventy participants were self‐identified as having sensitivity to EMFs, and 141 met the criteria for psychiatric conditions without EMF sensitivity. More than half of the survey respondents considered power lines and mobile phone base stations to affect people's health to a big extent. Higher sensitivity to EMFs, psychopathology, being female, being married, more years of education, and having a catastrophic illness had positive associations with perceived risks of EMF‐related environmental sources as well as for all environmental sources combined. We observed no moderating effect of psychopathology on the association between degree of sensitivity to EMF and risk perception. Thus, psychopathology had influence on general people's risk perception without having influence on the relationship between people's degree of sensitivity to EMF and risk perception. The plausible explanations are discussed in the text.     

Social Amplification of Wildfire Risk: The Role of Social Interactions and Information Sources

Wildfire is a persistent and growing threat across much of the western United States. Understanding how people living in fire‐prone areas perceive this threat is essential to the design of effective risk management policies. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework, we develop a conceptual model of wildfire risk perceptions that incorporates the social processes that likely shape how individuals in fire‐prone areas come to understand this risk, highlighting the role of information sources and social interactions. We classify information sources as expert or nonexpert, and group social interactions according to two dimensions: formal versus informal, and generic versus fire‐specific. Using survey data from two Colorado counties, we empirically examine how information sources and social interactions relate to the perceived probability and perceived consequences of a wildfire. Our results suggest that social amplification processes play a role in shaping how individuals in this area perceive wildfire risk. A key finding is that both “vertical” (i.e., expert information sources and formal social interactions) and “horizontal” (i.e., nonexpert information and informal interactions) interactions are associated with perceived risk of experiencing a wildfire. We also find evidence of perceived “risk interdependency”—that is, homeowners’ perceptions of risk are higher when vegetation on neighboring properties is perceived to be dense. Incorporating social amplification processes into community‐based wildfire education programs and evaluating these programs’ effectiveness constitutes an area for future inquiry.     

Catastrophe Risk Models for Evaluating Disaster Risk Reduction Investments in Developing Countries

Major natural disasters in recent years have had high human and economic costs, and triggered record high postdisaster relief from governments and international donors. Given the current economic situation worldwide, selecting the most effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures is critical. This is especially the case for low‐ and middle‐income countries, which have suffered disproportionally more economic and human losses from disasters. This article discusses a methodology that makes use of advanced probabilistic catastrophe models to estimate benefits of DRR measures. We apply such newly developed models to generate estimates for hurricane risk on residential structures on the island of St. Lucia, and earthquake risk on residential structures in Istanbul, Turkey, as two illustrative case studies. The costs and economic benefits for selected risk reduction measures are estimated taking account of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We conclude by emphasizing the advantages and challenges of catastrophe model‐based cost‐benefit analyses for DRR in developing countries.     

组织支持视角下领导—下属交换关系感知匹配的形成机制研究

领导—下属交换关系的感知匹配存在双方融洽型、领导高估型、下属高估型和双方冷漠型四种形态.领导给予下属的支持越高,双方关系的质量将越高;同样,下属觉察到来自领导支持越高,也越容易促进双方关系的融洽.本研究收集了来自长三角地区企业252对领导—下属配对样本,运用多元Logistic回归分析方法.结果证明了支持性人力资源实践、领导支持感,以及二者的交互作用都显著影响领导—下属交换关系的感知匹配.