Panel data unit roots tests: The role of serial correlation and the time dimension

We investigate the influence of residual serial correlation and of the time dimension on statistical inference for a unit root in dynamic longitudinal data, known as panel data in econometrics. To this end, we introduce two test statistics based on method of moments estimators. The first is based on the generalized method of moments estimators, while the second is based on the instrumental variables estimator. Analytical results for the Instrumental Variables (IV) based test in a simplified setting show that (i) large time dimension panel unit root tests will suffer from serious size distortions in finite samples, even for samples that would normally be considered large in practice, and (ii) negative serial correlation in the error terms of the panel reduces the power of the unit root tests, possibly up to a point where the test becomes biased. However, near the unit root the test is shown to have power against a wide range of alternatives. These findings are confirmed in a more general set-up through a series of Monte Carlo experiments.     

Globalization or glocalization? Community care in Taiwan and Britain

The initial fascination in the west with the economic achievements of the East Asian 'tiger economies' led to an increasing interest in their social welfare regimes. Theorizing on wide-scale socio-economic change might suggest that in occidental and oriental welfare regimes a process of convergence is underway, as a result of competitive pressures generated by the global economy and as part of the diffusion of social welfare discourses worldwide. A particular case of possible convergence, namely community care policies in Taiwan and Britain in the 1990s, is identified. However, despite superficial similarities in policy and practice developments a more careful examination suggests that, whilst they may be infused with similar rhetoric, the context and content of policy and practice in each country is radically different. This suggests the possibility that whilst the global economy will continue to act as a major constraint on social welfare development, with welfare discourses becoming increasingly globalized, the policy and practice which emerges will continue to be inflected by national contexts and mediated by existing country-specific institutional arrangements; a process of glocalization rather than globalization. Die anfängliche Faszination der ökonomischen Erfolge der ostasiatischen 'Tigerstaaten' auf den Westen hat zu einem verstärkten Interesse an ihrem sozialen und wohlfahrtsstaatlichen Regime geführt. Eine Theoretisierung der großformatigen sozio-ökonomischen Veränderungen könnte zu der Annahme führen, daß als Resultat des durch die globalisierte Ökonomie hervorgerufenen Wettbewerbsdrucks und z.T. durch die Ausbreitung wohlfahrtsstaatlicher Diskurse sowohl in den östlichen als auch in den westlichen Wohlfahrtsstaatsregimes sich ein Prozeß der Konvergenz durchstetzt. Dabei geht es hier um den spezifischen Fall einer möglichen Konvergenz der Sozialarbeit (Community care) in Taiwan und Großbritannien. Trotz der bei oberflächlicher Betrachtung scheinbaren Ähnlichkeiten auf der Ebene politischer und praktischer Entwicklungen zeigt eine gründlichere Untersuchung, daß die sich durchsetzenden Politiken und Praxen auch weiterhin durch den nationalstaatlichen Kontext gebrochen und durch bestehende länderspezifische institutionelle Arrangements mediatisiert werden - obwohl die globalisierte Ökonomie nach wie vor einen wesentlichen Zwang auf die Entwicklung des Wohlfahrtsstaates ausübt und die Diskurse über Wohlfahrt zunehmend globalisiert werden. Es handelt sich also eher um einen Prozeß der Glokalisierung denn um Globalisierung. La fasinación inicial del oeste por los logros económicos de los praises del este asiático (los 'tigres económicos') ha llevado a un interés creciente por sus regímenes de bienestar social. La teoría sobre el cambio socioeconómico a gran escala sugiere que los regímenes de bienestar occidentales y orientales, están en un proceso de convergencia debido a las presiones competitivas generadas por la economia global y como parte de la difusión mundial de los discursos de bienestar social. Se identifica un caso particular de posible convergencia en las política y desarrollos práticos, un examen cuidadoso sugiere que, aunque estén infundidas por una retórica similar, los contextos y contenidos politicos y prácticos en ambos paises son radicalmente diferentes. Esto sugiere la posibilidad de que, mientras que la economía global va a continuar actuando como una gran restricción para el desarrollo del bienestar social, con los discursos siendo cada vez más globales, la política y la prática emergentes seguirán siendo moduladas por los contextos nacionales y mediadas por los acuerdos institucionales especificos de cada país; un proceso de glocalización en lugar de globalización. La fascination initiale des Occidnetaux pour les accomplissements économiques des 'Tigres' de l'Extrême Orient les a conduit à s'intresser de plus près à leurs régimes de sécurité sociale. Si l'on théorise les changements socio-économiques à grande échelle, on peut supposer que les systèmes sociaux occidentaux et asiatiques convergent en raison des pressions exercées par la compétition économique mondiale et de la diffusion à travers le monde des discours sur la sécurité sociale. Les auteurs identifient un cas de possible convergence : les politiques d'aide communautaire à Taiwan et en Grande-Bretagne dans les années 90. Cependant un examen plus attentif des politiques et des pratiques laisse supposer que, même inspirées par une rhétorique similaire, le contexte dans lequel elles apparaissent et leur contenu dans chaque pays est radicalement différent, malgré des similitudes superficielles dans leur évolution. Il parait donc probable que les contextes nationaux et les instituions spécifiques à chaque pays continuent à infléchir politiques et pratiques, et ceci parallèlement aux contraintes majeures imposées à l'évolution des systèmrd sociaux par l'éonomie mondialisée, les discours sur le social devenant de plus en plus généraux.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article:
Fanning, P., & McKay, M. (Eds.). Family guide to emotional wellness: Proven self-help techniques and exercises for dealing with common problems and building crucial life skills.
Leiblum, S., & Rosen, R. (2000) (Eds.). Principles and practice of sex therapy (3rd ed.).
Sturkie, K., & Bergen, L.P. (2001). Professional regulation in marital and family therapy.
Kaslow, F. (Ed.). (2000). Handbook of couple and family forensics: A sourcebook for mental health and legal professionals.     

Variance decompositions of nonlinear time series using stochastic simulation and sensitivity analysis

In this paper, A variance decomposition approach to quantify the effects of endogenous and exogenous variables for nonlinear time series models is developed. This decomposition is taken temporally with respect to the source of variation. The methodology uses Monte Carlo methods to affect the variance decomposition using the ANOVA-like procedures proposed in Archer et al. (J. Stat. Comput. Simul. 58:99–120, 1997), Sobol’ (Math. Model. 2:112–118, 1990). The results of this paper can be used in investment problems, biomathematics and control theory, where nonlinear time series with multiple inputs are encountered.     

Practitioners' Documentation of Assessment and Care Planning in Social Care: The Opportunities for Organizational Learning

This paper analyses practitioners’ documentation of socialcare assessments and care plans for disabled adults of workingage. The data were collected in the course of an innovativeproject that introduced new outcome-focused documentation intoroutine social care assessment, care management and review processes.The project aimed to encourage practitioners to focus duringthese processes on the full range of outcomes that individualdisabled adults might seek to achieve; and identify the appropriateservices for realizing those outcomes. Analysis of the new documentationprovides insights into the diverse range of priorities and outcomesthat service users aspire to achieve as a result of receivingservices, and the service inputs that were agreed between practitionersand service users. However, despite the new documentation, themajority of both outcomes and services that were recorded tendedto cluster around a fairly narrow range of conventional socialcare service functions. Moreover, the emphasis of both outcomesand service inputs differed between different groups of socialcare professionals. In the context of current policies to makesocial care services more individualized and outcome-focused,each of these findings has major organizational implications.The opportunities for using routine practitioner documentationto identify areas of organizational and professional changeand learning are discussed.     

Optimism in the Face of Despair: Black‐White Differences in Beliefs About School as a Means for Upward Social Mobility*

Objective. This study aims to provide a better understanding of how beliefs about the system of social mobility affect students' schooling outcomes. Previous studies reach conflicting conclusions because they conflate two forms of beliefs about social mobility (i.e., perceived value of school and perceived barriers despite schooling). Methods. The Maryland Adolescence Development In Context Study (MADICS) is used to examine black‐white differences in beliefs about the value of school and barriers to upward mobility despite schooling and how these beliefs predict academic achievement and educational attainment. Results. The analyses show that relative to whites, blacks hold stronger beliefs in both the value of school and barriers to social mobility, and have greater affective attitudes toward schooling. However, belief in barriers to social mobility is not consequential for academic outcomes. Conclusions. Beliefs about upward mobility are mechanisms by which the opportunity structure influences individuals' schooling behaviors and making clear distinctions between various beliefs about the system of social mobility can refine the understanding of this link. This study suggests that individuals make nuanced distinctions about the role of schooling for upward mobility, each with separate effects on academic outcomes.     

The knowledge-based economy: intellectual origins and new economic perspectives

This paper discusses the intellectual origins of the knowledge-based economy or KBE, and recent economic theories used to provide an intellectual foundation for the KBE. The KBE is the dominant post-industrial economic development paradigm that emerged in the 1980s, with an emphasis on the role of knowledge creation and distribution as the primary driver in the process of economic growth, the distribution of income, the growing importance of knowledge-based networks among firms, and the interface between government business and citizens in the advanced economies. Recent empirical evidence on rates of return, geographic spillovers, and the internationalization of knowledge flows are discussed in relation to the theoretical foundations of the KBE.