Subset Selection Toward Optimizing the Best Performance at a Second Stage

In the search for the best of n candidates, two-stage procedures of the following type are in common use. In a first stage, weak candidates are removed, and the subset of promising candidates is then further examined. At a second stage, the best of the candidates in the subset is selected. In this article, optimization is not aimed at the parameter with largest value but rather at the best performance of the selected candidates at Stage 2. Under a normal model, a new procedure based on posterior percentiles is derived using a Bayes approach, where nonsymmetric normal (proper and improper) priors are applied. Comparisons are made with two other procedures frequently used in selection decisions. The three procedures and their performances are illustrated with data from a recent recruitment process at a Midwestern university.     

Circular and Repeat Migration: Counts of Exits and Years Away from the Host Country

The importance of repeat and circular migration starts receiving rising recognition. The paper studies this behavior by analyzing the number of exits and the total number of years away from the host country using count data models and panel data from the German guestworker experience. Beyond the myth, more than 60% of migrants in the sample from the guestworker countries living in Germany are indeed repeat or circular migrants. Migrants from European Union member countries, those not owning a dwelling in Germany, the younger and the older (excluding the middle-aged), are significantly more likely to engage in repeat migration and to stay out for longer. Males and those migrants with German passports exit more frequently, while those with higher education exit less; there are no differences with time spent out. Migrants with family in the home country remain out longer, and those closely attached to the labor market remain less; they are not leaving the country more frequently.     

Growth and Poverty Reduction in Uganda, 1999–2000: Panel Data Evidence

To explore factors underlying growth and poverty reduction in Africa while overcoming some of the limitations of cross‐country analysis, this article uses micro‐level survey and panel‐data evidence from Uganda spanning 1992–2000. The high elasticity of both income growth and poverty reduction with respect to agricultural output (coffee) prices confirms the benefits from Uganda's decisive liberalisation of output markets. It also suggests the importance of product diversification to protect the poor against price shocks and the potential of cotton‐market improvements in tackling persistent poverty in the North. The importance of improving access to basic education and health care emerges more clearly than in cross‐country analysis, but benefits depend on complementary investments in electricity and other infrastructure, and reductions in civil strife.     

PRICE‐LEVEL CHANGES AND THE REDISTRIBUTION OF NOMINAL WEALTH ACROSS THE EURO AREA

We show that unexpected price‐level movements generate sizable wealth redistribution in the Euro Area (EA), using sectoral accounts and newly available data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. The EA as a whole is a net loser of unexpected price‐level decreases, with Italy, Greece, Portugal, and Spain losing most in per capita terms, and Belgium and Malta being net winners. Governments are net losers of deflation, while the household (HH) sector is a net winner in the EA as a whole. HHs in Belgium, Ireland, Malta, and Germany experience the biggest per capita gains, while HHs in Finland and Spain turn out to be net losers. Considerable heterogeneity exists also within the HH sector: relatively young middle class HHs are net losers of deflation, while older and richer HHs are winners. As a result, wealth inequality in the EA increases with unexpected deflation, although in some countries (Austria, Germany, and Malta) inequality decreases due to the presence of relatively few young borrowing HHs. We document that HHs' inflation exposure varies systematically across countries, with HHs in high‐inflation EA countries holding systematically lower nominal exposures.     

Standardisierungspotentiale lebenszyklusbasierter Modelle des strategischen Kostenmanagements

Tremendous increases in indirect costs can be found in many industries. Consequently, life cycle cost analysis models are getting more important in strategic cost management. However, existing models differ significantly from each other as they have been developed mainly for specific applications. In order to enable a common use of those models, a standardization of these models is required. We examine the potentials of standardizing models for life cycle cost analysis. In a first step, requirements regarding a standard model are derived from literature. As a second step, existing approaches found in literature are compared to the afore derived demands and it is analyzed to what extent they match the standardization requirements. Based on this comparison, we identify and discuss avenues for further research.     

'Germany's River,but not Germany's Border'-The Rhine as a National Myth in Early 19th Century German Literature

This article demonstrates that American national identity is symbolic, subjective and ambiguous to the extent that it encapsulates senses of both similarity and difference. Citing evidence from life-history interviews with American military veterans from different ethnic groups, the article shows how some Americans can identify with being racially excluded and still share in a sense of national belonging. It is argued here that this feature is and has always been embedded in the processes of American national identification. In making this argument, this article rejects Ramsey Cook's notion that achieving a sense of similarity between universal and particular interests within a national community is hallmark of postnationalism.     

Population aging and endogenous economic growth

We investigate the consequences of population aging for long-run economic growth perspectives. Our framework incorporates endogenous growth models and semi-endogenous growth models as special cases. We show that (1) increases in longevity have a positive impact on per capita output growth, (2) decreases in fertility have a negative impact on per capita output growth, (3) the positive longevity effect dominates the negative fertility effect in case of the endogenous growth framework, and (4) population aging fosters long-run growth in the endogenous growth framework, while its effect depends on the relative change between fertility and mortality in the semi-endogenous growth framework.     

Towards a European migration policy

The stagnating West European population combined with the prosperous economic development of the European Community (EC) generate strong economic incentives for immigration. The drastic political changes in Eastern Europe have caused additional migration pressures. There are a variety of problems with the economic and political integration of migrants, however. The paper argues that immigration can compensate for demographic losses due to the decline and ageing of the European labor force. Economic theory further predicts welfare gains from free factor movements, which should be reaped as long as social costs and adjustment costs are not prohibitive. An active European migration policy is recommended to achieve this aim.This article is a completely revised version of CEPR Discussion Paper No. 641, presented by the second author at the CEPR Workshop The economies of migration on 23 November 1991 in London, UK, and at a hearing of the European Parliament on 25 May 1992 in Bruxelles, Belgium.