The rise in absenteeism: disentangling the impacts of cohort, age and time

In recent years, a number of welfare state economies, including Norway, have experienced substantial increases in sickness absence. Using longitudinal individual register data for virtually all Norwegian employees, we examine the remarkable rise since the early 1990s, with emphasis on disentangling the roles of cohort, age, and time. We show that individual age-adjusted absence propensities have risen even more than aggregate absence rates from 1993 to 2005, which casts doubt on the popular hypotheses that the rise was due to the inclusion into the workforce of young or marginal workers with weaker work-norms or poorer health.     

Ex Ante Project Evaluation and the Complexity of Early Decision-Making

This paper looks beyond more traditional evaluation activities to focus primarily on evaluation up front. It suggests that the early appraisal of an investment case or a project should apply essentially the same evaluation criteria that will be used in ex post evaluation, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project outcome. However, the initial plan might be altered as result of subsequent analysis, assessment, negotiation, positioning, and the exercise of power. The last part of this paper presents an empirical study of 23 projects, which examines the complexity of processes that occur in the idea- and decision phases.     

Does emotional intelligence as ability predict transformational leadership? A multilevel approach

This study assesses to what extent emotional intelligence as ability (EI) can predict transformational leadership. Norwegian executives (N = 104) completed measures of personality (NEO PI-R) and EI (MSCEIT), and were rated on transformational leadership (MLQ 5X) by subordinates (N = 459). This study improves upon previous studies in three ways: First, because the validity and reliability of the scores from MSCEIT has been questioned, an alternative set of scales from MSCEIT were included, which provide reliable and interpretable scores (Føllesdal & Hagtvet, 2009). Second, in addition to personality, general mental ability (GMA) was controlled for by utilizing Monte Carlo studies. Third, a multilevel approach was used to analyze the scores, due to their hierarchical structure. Neither the four branch scores, nor the Total EI score from MSCEIT predicted transformational leadership. A suppression effect was found, however, among two subscales from Perceiving Emotions. The validity of scores from MSCEIT is questioned.     

The role of standards in the policy debate on the EU-US trade agreement

In the context of the public policy debate, we explore firm-level characteristics that influence firms’ preferences related to alternatives to harmonize standards within the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The options are the implementation of common standards, developed internationally or bilaterally, and mutual recognition. The empirical analysis is based on data from the German Standardization Panel. We identify three dimensions that determine firms’ preferences regarding the various harmonization solutions: (1) company-specific factors, such as size, industry and motives to apply standards, (2) the competitive environment, i.e. the position vis-à-vis other market participants, and (3) the technological environment, i.e. the dynamics of the market the company operates in.     

Social workers' attitudes towards family group conferences in Sweden and the UK

The New Zealand family group conference (FGC) approach to decision making in child welfare and protection has attracted strong interest among policy makers and professionals all over the world. While New Zealand’s legislation makes use of FGCs more or less mandatory in child protection, other countries permit social workers to refer families to an FGC at their own discretion. Knowledge about social workers’ attitudes towards the model is thus paramount if we want to understand implementation and evaluations of FGCs outside New Zealand. This study looks at attitudes towards and actual referrals to FGCs amongst 219 social workers from 18 local authorities in Sweden and the UK. Results reveal an overwhelmingly positive attitude towards FGCs in both countries. Given these attitudes it was striking that only 42% of the social workers had initiated at least one FGC over an 18‐month period. The number of implemented FGCs was almost exactly the same in Sweden and the UK, after adjusting for time and number of social workers. Possible explanations for this paradox are discussed, using data from the survey and child welfare literature.     

Unemployment Insurance and Entrepreneurship

Based on administrative registers from Norway, we examine how unemployment insurance (UI) and active labor market programs (ALMP) affect the transition rates from unemployment to regular employment and entrepreneurship, as well as subsequent earnings levels. We find that both the employment and entrepreneurship hazards rise sharply in response to UI sanctions and UI exhaustion. On average, transitions to entrepreneurship are more profitable than transitions to regular employment. While employment transitions are highly pro‐cyclical, entrepreneurship transitions are weakly counter‐cyclical. ALMPs targeted at entrepreneurship are rare in Norway, but the few start‐up subsidies that are provided are successful in terms of generating paid work.     

Estimating functions in indirect inference

Summary.  There are models for which the evaluation of the likelihood is infeasible in practice. For these models the Metropolis–Hastings acceptance probability cannot be easily computed. This is the case, for instance, when only departure times from a G / G /1 queue are observed and inference on the arrival and service distributions are required. Indirect inference is a method to estimate a parameter θ in models whose likelihood function does not have an analytical closed form, but from which random samples can be drawn for fixed values of θ . First an auxiliary model is chosen whose parameter β can be directly estimated. Next, the parameters in the auxiliary model are estimated for the original data, leading to an estimate     . The parameter β is also estimated by using several sampled data sets, simulated from the original model for different values of the original parameter θ . Finally, the parameter θ which leads to the best match to     is chosen as the indirect inference estimate. We analyse which properties an auxiliary model should have to give satisfactory indirect inference. We look at the situation where the data are summarized in a vector statistic T , and the auxiliary model is chosen so that inference on β is drawn from T only. Under appropriate assumptions the asymptotic covariance matrix of the indirect estimators is proportional to the asymptotic covariance matrix of T and componentwise inversely proportional to the square of the derivative, with respect to θ , of the expected value of T . We discuss how these results can be used in selecting good estimating functions. We apply our findings to the queuing problem.     

The front-end of projects: a systematic literature review and structuring

Abstract

This paper summarizes the results of a comprehensive systematic literature survey on the front-end of a project, commissioned by the Project Management Institute. The dedicated literature on the front-end is sparse: although the front-end has been shown to be critical to the strategic success of the project, this phase of the lifecycle is not well understood. This paper presents the literature on the concept of the front-end, and defines a temporarily ordered structure of generic processes that form the ‘front-end’ and how these fit together as a coherent whole. These start from the preliminaries to the initiative, then the project purpose (for various stakeholders), the initial analysis and scenario analysis; the analysis of alternatives and choice of project concept; assessment of the project, finishing with setting up project execution. It summarises the recent literature at each of these elements in turn, specifically as they relate to the front-end.