Demographic changes as a problem for social security systems

The relationship between demographic changes and the social security system is explored. The focus is on the current situation in the Federal Republic of Germany, but consideration is also given to comparable developments in other developed countries. Emphasis is placed on how changes in the age distribution of modern populations affect the relative proportion of the productive and the dependent populations.     

Occupation and housing adjustment of migrants to Surabaya,Indonesia: the case of a second city

The adjustment of migrants to Surabaya, Indonesia was examined with respect to occupation and housing characteristics. The data are based on information obtained in interviews from a multistage random sample of 600 residents of Surabaya between the ages of 20-44. Both females and males were interviewed and information on occupation was also collected for the spouses of respondents. In the analysis, 3 comparison groups were used: migrants to the city within the 5 years previous to the survey; migrants who moved in 1969 or before; and lifetime residents of Surabaya who were either born there or moved before the age of 15. The analysis used 2 methods to determine the extent and nature of adjustment. In the first, migrants of short and long durations of residence were compared to determine if change on the aggregate level has taken place and to indicate the direction of change. A control group of lifetime residents was used to determine whether the migrants are coming to resemble the characteristics of the native urban population. The 2nd, and equally serious problem, involves outmigration, in which migrants selective of certain characteristics leave the city either to return to the rural area or to move to another city. Initial comparisons between recent migrants, longterm migrants, and lifetime residents revealed no significant differences for either employment status or occupational skill. By occupational skill, approximately 35% had unskilled occupations, 27% semiskilled occupations, and 37% skilled occupations, with no significant difference by migrant status group. Overall, the distributions showed this sample to have significant concentrations in traditional, labor intensive employment, with a large percentage self employed. Controlling occupational skill for education showed somewhat different results. Those with primary school or less did not show a significant difference by migrant status, while among those with more education there was a significant difference. The longterm migrants wree overwhelmingly employed in skilled occupations. Initial analysis showed no significant difference in housing quality for each of the 3 migrant status groups. Recent migrants to the city were having no more difficulty in finding housing than changing migrants and lifetime natives. Housing conditions appeared to improve with duration of residence in the city, either through residential mobility or through improvements to the dwelling. That housing showed improvement with time, while occupation did not, may be because of the nature of each of the markets.     

The dynamics and differentials of fertility in the USSR (survey results)

The results of a fertility survey carried out in the USSR in 1978 are presented. The survey included 33,076 women aged 18 to 59. Data are included on fertility rates by region and Union Republic and by urban or rural area, and on expected fertility of women aged 18 to 44. Changes in actual and desired fertility over time are compared for five-year periods from 1945 to 1978. Differences in fertility are analyzed by type of settlement, educational status, and nationality.     

The meaning of patient satisfaction with prepaid primary health care in Israel

This paper reports the development of a self-administered Hebrew-language questionnaire for assessing patient satisfaction with primary care in Israel. Four scale measures of patient satisfaction were empirically constructed. These scales pertained to doctor conduct, doctor-patient communication, teamwork, and ease of access. In addition, a single direct question was used to measure overall satisfaction with the care. Ratings of all aspects of care were negatively skewed, with doctor-conduct and doctor-patient communication usually being the most satisfactory aspects and access the least satisfactory. It was shown that different practices, or the same practice at different points in time, can easily and meaningfully be compared, using mean satisfaction scores, measures of standard deviation, or percentages in each practice with ratings above (or below) the overall mean of all practices. The use of specific measures of patient satisfaction for comparison and intervention is discussed.     

Was there compression of disability for older Americans from 1992 to 2003?

Medical advances and the growth of the elderly population have focused interest on trends in the health of the elderly. Three theories have been advanced to describe these trends: compression of morbidity, expansion of morbidity, and dynamic equilibrium. We applied multistate life table methods to the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey to estimate active and disabled life expectancy from 1992 to 2003, defining disability as having difficulty with instrumental activities of daily living or activities of daily living. We found increases in active life expectancy past age 65 and decreases in life expectancy with severe disability. These trends are consistent with elements of both the theory of compression of morbidity and the theory of dynamic equilibrium.     

Child support and father-child contact: Testing reciprocal pathways

I use three waves of panel data to examine the relationship between child support payments and fathers' contact with their nonmarital children. I disaggregate support into fathers' formal and informal payments and incorporate cross-lagged effects models to identify the direction of causality between payments and contact. After including the behavior from the prior wave (lagged term) and a rich set of family characteristics, I find a marginally significant effect of paying formally at Time 1 on the likelihood of contact at Time 2 but no effect of contact at Time 1 on formal payments at Time 2. In the first examination of the relationship between informal support and father-child contact, I find a strong, positive reciprocal relationship between the likelihood and frequency of father-child contact and the likelihood and amount of informal support, with slightly stronger and more consistent effects of contact on payments than of payments on contact.     

Older women's fears of violence: the need for interventions that enable active ageing

Women's fear of violence can impact negatively on their active participation in life. An ageing survey conducted with 2,620 Australian respondents aged 50 to 90 years examined aspects of work, learning, social, spiritual and emotional status, health, vision, home, life events, demographics, and asked an open-ended question about what being actively engaged in life meant. Ordinal regression was carried out on two dependent variables: wanting and needing to learn to discourage violence. Analyses found that as women's age increased, those on lower incomes were more likely than others to say they needed to learn how to discourage violence against them. This paper investigates the variables associated with the findings-transport, finances, news media, home safety, and reduced social interactions. Results highlight the importance of understanding women's fear in the context of personal and social issues, and the need to provide learning opportunities to improve safety and social engagement.     

Risk preferences and the timing of marriage and childbearing

The existing literature on marriage and fertility decisions pays little attention to the roles played by risk preferences and uncertainty. However given uncertainty regarding the availability of suitable marriage partners, the ability to contracept, and the ability to conceive, women's risk preferences might be expected to play an important role in marriage and fertility timing decisions. By using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), I find that measured risk preferences have a significant effect on the timing of both marriage and fertility. Highly risk-tolerant women are more likely to delay marriage, consistent with either a search model of marriage or a risk-pooling explanation. In addition, risk preferences affect fertility timing in a way that differs by marital status and education, and that varies over the life cycle. Greater tolerance for risk leads to earlier births at young ages, consistent with these women being less likely to contracept effectively. In addition, as the subgroup of college-educated, unmarried women nears the end of their fertile periods, highly risk-tolerant women are likely to delay childbearing relative to their more risk-averse counterparts and are therefore less likely to become mothers. These findings may have broader implications for both individual and societal well-being.