An Adaptive Functional Autoregressive Forecast Model to Predict Electricity Price Curves

We propose an adaptive functional autoregressive (AFAR) forecast model to predict electricity price curves. With time-varying operators, the AFAR model can be safely used in both stationary and nonstationary situations. A closed-form maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is derived under stationarity. The result is further extended for nonstationarity, where the time-dependent operators are adaptively estimated under local homogeneity. We provide theoretical results of the ML estimator and the adaptive estimator. Simulation study illustrates nice finite sample performance of the AFAR modeling. The AFAR model also exhibits a superior accuracy in the forecast exercise of the California electricity daily price curves compared to several alternatives.     

基于DPN模型的我国出口拉动增加值时滞模型

由于我国加工出口占比较高,学者们提出了区分贸易方式的非竞争型投入产出模型.该模型可以更加准确地测算我国出口对增加值的拉动,但是该模型忽略了出口对增加值拉动的时滞性,这容易产生所有效应都在当年发生的误解.文章基于区分贸易方式的非竞争型投入产出模型构建了各部门出口对增加值拉动的时滞模型.实证结果表明:非加工出口部门的时滞长于加工出口部门的时滞.     

Some novel results on pairwise quasi-asymptotical independence with applications to risk theory

In this article we obtain some novel results on pairwise quasi-asymptotically independent (pQAI) random variables. Concretely speaking, let X₁, …, X_n be n real-valued pQAI random variables, and W₁, …, W_n be another n non negative and arbitrarily dependent random variables, but independent of X₁, …, X_n. Under some mild conditions, we prove that W₁X₁, …, W_nX_n are still pQAI as well. Our result is in a general setting whether the primary random variables X₁, …, X_n are heavy-tailed or not. Finally, a special case of above result is applied to risk theory for investigating the finite-time ruin probability for a discrete-time risk model with a wide type of dependence structure.     

与能源消耗等指标发生偏离的GDP是否可信

本文选取了1995-2014年全国30个省市数据,综合使用了向量自回归模型、参数面板模型、非参数面板模型和面板门限模型对GDP增速与电力消费增速、第二产业增速、第三产业增速、财政收入增速、货物流转增速、能源消费增速和固定资产投资增速等物理性指标间的关系进行了建模.实证研究发现,GDP增速、电力消费增速、第三产业增速、能源消费增速之间存在作用机制,但是这种影响模式并非一成不变,在不同时间段内,其模式发生改变,同时,这一影响模式也随着人均GDP的变化而发生阶段性改变.在经济新常态下,不能因为经济转型中的GDP数据与物理指数之间发生偏离,而简单否定GDP的准确性.     

模糊变权组合预测方法研究

在不确定环境组合预测中,用模糊权重系数更能体现各单项预测方法的客观表现.文章提出一种新的权重系数为三角模糊数的组合预测方法.首先建立以组合预测精确度指数最小为准则的模糊加权组合预测模型,为了避免样本数据中极端值对模型的影响,对模型进行改进,提出带有0-1变量的模糊加权组合预测模型.进一步考虑到单项预测方法在不同时刻的表现有所差异,建立基于诱导有序模糊加权平均(IOFWA)算子的模糊变权组合预测模型,该模型不仅能克服极端值的影响,而且具有更高的预测精确度.并实证验证了该方法的适用性和灵活性.     

The Aging Semantic Differential in Mandarin Chinese: Measuring Attitudes toward Older Adults in China

ABSTRACT

The Aging Semantic Differential (ASD) is the most widely used instrument to measure young people’s attitudes towards older adults. This study translated the ASD to Mandarin and examined its psychometric properties. The Mandarin-ASD contains three latent factors (Personality and Mental Health, Societal Participation, and Physical) that have high internal reliability and reasonable discriminate validity. Social work researchers, practitioners and allied professionals may utilize the ASD-Mandarin instrument to measure young people’s attitudes towards older adults in China. We issue a call for a universal-ASD that can be applied across different cultural contexts.     

Are the poor worse at dealing with ambiguity?

This paper studies the relationship between people’s ambiguity attitudes and income in the field using language as a natural source of ambiguity. It shows that the method of Baillon et al. (2017b) can be adapted for field studies, providing ambiguity measurement tasks that are more comprehensible for nonacademic subjects. Ambiguity attitudes were elicited in two groups of Chinese adolescents (poor rural and rich urban), among whom the income variation is big. In the rural group the poorer are both more ambiguity averse and more a-insensitive, whereas in the urban group the richer are more a-insensitivite. On average, the poor rural adolescents are worse at dealing with ambiguity than their urban counterparts. A-insensitivity, which measures people’s understanding of an ambiguous situation, is an important but sometimes neglected component of ambiguity attitude. Policies aiming to help people improve decisions may focus more on reducing a-insensitivity as this cognitive bias is more likely to be influenced by intervention than people’s intrinsic aversion towards ambiguity.     

中泰外商直接投资实证研究——以泰国金融结构金融效率为分析对象

在"一带一路"倡议的推动下,泰国作为东盟第三大经济体,以其优越的地理优势和战略地位吸引了不少中国投资者进入泰国投资,而其金融结构与金融效率对中国直接投资有着重大影响.文章通过对金融结构、金融效率及中国在泰国直接投资的分析发现,尽管泰国通货膨胀率、泰国工业生产指数对中国在泰国直接投资没有显著影响,但泰国居民消费指数、泰国商业银行存贷比率、泰国生产价格指数、泰国失业率对中国在泰国直接投资会产生负向影响,而中国与泰国之间的进出口额对中国在泰国直接投资可以产生正向影响.因此,鼓励中国投资者向泰国投资,加大两国贸易合作以及开展两国文化交流,是促进中国和泰国经济进一步发展的有效措施,也是实现互助互利,合作共赢的"一带一路"经济合作目标的有效方法.