Estimation of mortality from orphanhood in adulthood

This paper extends earlier research into methods for estimating adult mortality from information on the recent incidence of orphanhood. It presents a series of regression coefficients for estimating female and male mortality from synthetic cohort data on the subsequent orphanhood of those who had a living mother or father at exact age 20. Such information can be obtained either where questions about parental survival have been asked in two inquiries or by asking retrospectively about dates of orphanhood in a single survey. Although the method is somewhat sensitive to errors in the reporting of ages and dates, it is a promising source of up-to-date estimates of adult mortality that are free from bias due to the underreporting of the orphanhood of young children ("the adoption effect").     

Supreme Court expands view of interstate commerce in peer review proceeding

At the end of May, the U.S. Supreme Court allowed an antitrust claim by a physician against a hospital for an allegedly improper peer review proceeding. Previously, hospitals were allowed to defend against antitrust claims regarding a peer review decision involving one physician on the grounds that the activities did not affect interstate commerce. The Supreme Court has apparently removed this defense by letting stand a Court of Appeals decision allowing a physician's antitrust claim against a hospital that has suspended his privileges.     

Survey provides overview of profession's responsibilities

At the end of 1990, the Physician Executive Management Center, Tampa, Fla., undertook a survey of College members to determine levels of compensation and benefits and to provide a glimpse at the roles and responsibilities of physician executives. The results of the survey have recently been published by the Management Center. In this article, the roles and responsibilities of physician executives for the overall sample are summarized.     

Regulation of board-and-care homes: research to guide policy

Information about board-and-care homes reported in the media and in federal committee hearings indicates that they are shoddy and exploitative environments that do not provide adequate care. Research done in board-and-care homes in recent years, however, demonstrates that they can provide adequate care and a satisfying environment for some of the people they serve. Policy at the federal, state, and local levels should be guided by both the need to assure the health and safety of board-and-care residents and the needs of residents and operators identified in scientific studies.     

The impact of the Gulf war on migration and remittances in Asia and the Middle East

The author discusses the impact of the 1990 Gulf war on the migrant worker populations in the region, with a focus on migration and remittances in Asia and the Middle East. Both immediate and long-term effects are considered. "From the perspective of foreign migrant communities living in the Gulf...the war...was much more of a disaster for Arabs than for Asians....Arab migrant populations...were dramatically affected by the Gulf crisis. In contrast, the Asian migrant community was largely concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the [United Arab Emirates] and remained relatively less affected by the crisis. Subsequent polarization in the Arab world gives Asian labor-exporting countries an unexpected opportunity to increase their share of Gulf labor markets still further in the coming years." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

RACE-OF-INTERVIEWER EFFECTS IN A PREELECTION POLL VIRGINIA 1989

All published preelection surveys of the 1989 Virginia gubernatorialcontest overestimated the vote share of the black candidateand eventual victor, Douglas Wilder. We offer a "social desirability"interpretation of the polls' inaccuracies and hypothesize thatclaiming support for Wilder was the socially desirable responsefor some whites, especially when the interviewer was black.We show a race-of-interviewer effect on the vote intention ofwhite respondents of 8–11 percentage points in a preelectionsurvey of Virginia voters. The effects were greatest among whiteDemocrats and among whites who were more uncertain of theirvote intention. We discuss the implications of these findingsfor race-of-interviewer research and for improving the accuracyof preelection forecasts in contests with black and white opposingcandidates.     

Migration,race and ethnicity, 1960-1980

"This article compares racial and ethnic patterns in interstate and interregional migration in the years 1960 to 1980.... This research looks at geographical assimilation--the extent to which patterns of migration and regional distribution of minority groups resemble those of whites. Attention is directed to United States-born Asian Americans, blacks, Hispanics, Native Americans and whites, and attempts to answer the following questions: 1) To what extent do the patterns of interstate migration of these groups resemble one another? 2) To what extent do the regional distributions and patterns of net regional migration of these groups resemble one another?" This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1988 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 54, No. 3, Fall 1988, p. 495).     

Recent trends in the process of stratification

Using the 14 annual cross-sections from the General Social Survey, we specify a "basic model" of attainment and describe the year-by-year fluctuations in its parameters. The results are partially consistent with theories describing the gradual growth of universalistic patterns of stratification and mobility. Under a linear model of educational achievement, we find that the direct effects of race are weakening and the returns to class-based advantages are declining in tandem. The contours of the socioeconomic "gender gap" are also changing in important ways, with the male intercept declining at a rapid pace and the female term registering small and insignificant year-by-year gains. At the same time, the returns to experience and schooling are increasing for men, whereas the corresponding returns for women have remained stable over the 15-year period. This pattern of interaction effects implies that the size of the gender gap varies over time and across different population groups.     

Capital accumulation,endogenous population growth,and Easterlin cycles

In this paper we attempt to explain the occurrence of population cycles in industrialised economies where the birth rate depends on the difference between the actual and the expected consumption rate. This model of an endogenously growing population brings together Easterlin's idea of an adapting aspiration level with the neoclassical optimal growth paradigm. It is shown that in this highly aggregated demo-economic system (i.e., without inclusion of the age structure of a population) swings both in the economic and demographic variables may exist. The reason behind this strange optimal behaviour is identified to be an intertemporal substitution effect between current and future levels of consumption.We wish to thank A. Novak for helpful assistance and an anonymous referee for useful comments. Financial support by the Austrian Science Foundation under contract No. P6601 is acknowledged.     

Reconceptualizing migration as a household phenomenon: outmigration from New York City by race and Hispanic origin

"This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analyzing migration as a household event and presents two public use microdata applications of this approach for out-migrants from New York City. The distribution of single- and multi-origin households by race and Hispanic origin permits a more rigorous analysis of household migration differentials....and the disaggregation of household members by migration status provides insight into the household outcomes of the migration process...." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)